The Blue House, the presidential office.
President Kim Sangcheol chain-smoked for a long while over a single report.
The ministers’ bloody war of words was contained in that one report. There was no point of compromise. The pro-China faction said America’s hegemony was waning, while the pro-U.S. faction said that even so, China could not be an alternative. Then where, exactly, was Korea supposed to stand?
“...”
What made this problem difficult was that neither side was entirely wrong.
Many diplomatic experts predicted that even if a Democratic administration came to power, America’s basic stance would not change much. Likewise, many economic experts named China as Korea’s greatest competitor.
And indeed, many rice bowls had already been shattered.
Steel, shipbuilding, manufacturing... Many industries that had once held more than half of the global market share had fallen into China’s hands, and now they were even aiming for high-tech industries such as semiconductors.
“What an uncomfortable invitation. To think that one piece of paper would make Korean politics this noisy.”
“...I apologize.”
“You said the atmosphere at the State Council was tense?”
“Yes. Both sides had plausible arguments, so we could not find a point of compromise.”
“In other words, whatever decision we make will become controversial?”
The president smiled bitterly.
“What is the party line?”
“It has leaned toward the minimum level of protocol. Toward dispatching the Speaker of the National Assembly...”
The Speaker of the National Assembly ranked second in protocol order, a power holder who represented the Republic of Korea in both name and reality. But that was only in name. China was no fool, either; they would understand exactly what it meant to send someone whose protocol rank alone was excessively high.
“If we dispatch the Speaker, then in effect... we’re closer to siding with America?”
“Yes. Both inside and outside the party, there were many voices concerned about offending America.”
“Was there no opinion that the president should go in person?”
“The Minister of Unification argued strongly for that. He said it would be an excellent opportunity not only to restore relations with China, but also to explore inter-Korean relations... But the general opinion both inside and outside the party was that North-South relations are not the issue right now.”
Recently, the diplomatic stage had been making a mockery of the common sense of the past hundred years. The same was true of North Korea.
North Korea, which as late as Kim Jong-il had been brimming with ambition for reunification under communism, had recently been advocating the two-state theory. Since it seemed they could no longer gaslight the South Korean people, they apparently wanted to live forever as a hostile state in coexistence.
Ironically, this received an enthusiastic response from the Minister of Unification, and somehow it felt as though the Ministry of Unification would soon be reorganized into the Ministry of Division.
“It’s complicated, indeed.”
The president smiled bitterly.
Restoring relations with China was difficult in exactly this way. There were far too many interests entangled in this one move. Not only the economy, but even the direction of national security would inevitably be revealed, so the entire public was sensitive about participation in this Victory Day event.
“In the end, only my decision remains?”
“...That is correct.”
Kim Sangcheol sank back into thought.
Even as a candidate, he had been an extremely famous pragmatist. During his time in the opposition, he had been at the forefront of calling for the restoration of relations with China, and had criticized Japan’s Fukushima contaminated water.
But politics, by nature, was different when one was in the ruling party and when one was in the opposition.
Once he actually came to power, he could not avoid restoring relations with Japan. And when he considered drawing closer to China, America’s gaze was no ordinary burden.
But now the moment had come to decide.
America, which was only inflicting terrible wounds, or China, which by comparison suddenly seemed gentlemanly.
“Prime Minister. What can I gain if I attend Victory Day?”
After a long silence, he opened his mouth.
“...”
But this time, the prime minister’s mouth closed.
During the previous Park Geun-hye administration, the Korean president had endured America’s glare and personally attended the 70th anniversary Victory Day event. Since the visit had been made with such difficulty, there had been public expectation that China might at least lift the Korean Wave ban, which was little more than a pretext for fault-finding.
But one had to hope from someone worth hoping from. They continued to take issue with THAAD to the very end and lifted none of their retaliatory measures.
“...I apologize. I cannot say anything is certain.”
“I see.”
The president smiled bitterly.
“Then is there any reason for me to attend?”
“...”
“To be honest, I find myself thinking this. What use is China to us as a country?”
“...”
“If we ease immigration visas and hire Chinese IT talent, it’s obvious they’ll return to their homeland later and leak our technology. If we open trade channels and increase commerce, it’s obvious they’ll subsidize their own companies and interfere in the market... Then what, exactly, can we gain from China?”
In truth, nothing... Not absolutely nothing, perhaps, but nothing all that substantial.
Having already caught up significantly in technology, they were closer to competitors than buyers. The future direction of business was also full of areas where they would compete rather than help, so there was little to gain from staying close.
“In truth, there is not much to gain by siding with China. However.”
Even so, there was one reason, and only one, why relations had to be restored.
“If we remain attached to America, we have more to lose. So China is the unavoidable alternative.”
Marx’s prophecy had ended up coming true a hundred years later, and now global society had changed from befriending countries that benefited you to lining up behind the country that took less from you.
“Is that really... all?”
“Yes. That really is all.”
“...”
“Donald is a president the American people personally elected twice. And yet the Baidon administration that came in between was not greatly different in its basic stance.”
“...”
“There are more than one or two factories we have lost in the past ten years. This Georgia incident as well—the investment was finalized during the Baidon administration. The interpretation both inside and outside diplomatic circles is that regardless of which party takes power, the reshoring stance will continue.”
The president asked,
“Then do you also think I should go in person, Prime Minister?”
“I will follow whatever choice you make. With the ministers in such a state, I do not wish to add to your burden as well.”
“Just speak honestly. Prime Minister, what do you want me to do?”
Lee Chanho was silent for a moment before speaking.
“If there is no longer any difference between America and China—no, if America continues to make demands that even China does not make... then I do not know why we should stand on America’s side.”
“But America at least has room to change, does it not...?”
“That is why it is an even greater problem. Over the past ten years, America’s course has always changed only for the worse. We thought surely this was the worst, but by the next day, something even worse was waiting. Above all, judging by the political situation there, it seems unlikely to change going forward.”
The president looked at Lee Chanho’s resolute face.
“It will not change... going forward?”
“That is how it appears.”
“What is your reason?”
“Last month, the White House deployed the National Guard to Chicago again. A federal court blocked the military deployment, but they brought in the National Guard from Texas and redeployed them.”
“...”
“As a result, talk of martial law—the Insurrection Act—is already emerging in America. But isn’t the very fact that such concerns are arising absurd? Even if the master of the White House changes, that extreme public sentiment cannot be easily controlled. America’s stance will not change.”
Having said that, Lee Chanho added,
“Mr. President, if you are agonizing over restoring relations with China because of various factors, then choose a compromise instead.”
“...The problem is that there is no compromise, is it not?”
“There is not absolutely none. I will go to Victory Day.”
“Th-the prime minister?”
“Yes. The Chinese authorities are not blind. They will know what the Speaker is in Korea, and what the prime minister is. It will suit their tastes better for me, the deputy representative of the executive branch, to go. And if there is anything you wish to command me to say, please tell me separately. It is embarrassing to say this, but I am closer to Chinese figures than the Speaker of the National Assembly is, so conversation will be easier. However.”
Lee Chanho paused for a moment, then spoke in a difficult voice.
“Once America’s midterm elections are over... if the result differs from our expectations, then please make a difficult decision as well, Mr. President.”
The president looked at the sky outside the window and sighed.
“...You are telling me to make a visit within my term?”
*
“What? You want the president to attend in person?”
One week earlier.
Lee Chanho asked Sejun that in a voice that had risen considerably.
It was nonsense. With America’s hardline stance already continuing, attending Victory Day in a way that could offend such an America was utterly unthinkable.
“Yes. That is correct.”
“Does that make sense? Do you not know what the situation in America is right now?”
“I know. Tariffs, investment money for the United States, civilian detentions...”
“That is not what I mean!”
Lee Chanho sprang to his feet.
“No, fine. Yes, that is all true. But why provoke that America? Do you want to make Korea-U.S. relations the worst they have ever been?!”
“...They are not at their worst yet. There is still worse to come.”
“What, what did you say?”
Unlike Lee Chanho, who was thoroughly agitated, Sejun remained calm.
“With all due respect, Prime Minister. The results of America’s midterm elections will not be very good. The Democratic and Republican seats will be almost neck and neck, and the referendum-on-the-administration structure we want will absolutely not unfold.”
Had he spoken too confidently? Lee Chanho said with a cold expression,
“How do you know that?”
“An investor’s job is to predict the future.”
“Are you playing word games with me right now?!”
“All the indicators inside America point that way. Is there even one indicator we can view with hope?”
Unfortunately, Donald’s current approval rating was similar to that of the Baidon administration in the same year.
During that same period, Baidon had ordered the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Donald had ordered many other things besides, yet there was not much difference.
“Haa...”
Lee Chanho looked furious, but he could not refute it.
In the first year of the administration, a famous figure from the Republican camp had been assassinated, his birthday had become a national commemorative day, the National Guard had been deployed, talk of martial law had begun to surface... There had been other major issues too numerous to list, but public opinion remained roughly similar.
It was to the point that even political commentators within America said, “The problem is not the Republican Party; the bigger problem is that there is no alternative.”
“The change in America that we hope for will absolutely not come for the time being. So we, too, must dig another tunnel.”
Sejun raised his voice.
“If it is difficult now, then please promise it at least within the term. We also have to diversify our exports.”