One month into his term.
With all of Donald’s second-term cabinet appointments finalized, the administration had officially begun in earnest.
“Today, CNN insulted me again, calling me a lone-wolf, authoritarian president. Those people cursed this Donald as democracy’s greatest enemy, didn’t they?”
-Damn CNN! Shut them down right now!
“But isn’t CNN the most hypocritical, biased network in America? If I really were such a lone wolf, as they say, how could I have become friends with this man?”
-Donald! Donald!
“Allow me to introduce him to you. The Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kennedy F. Jr.!”
-Waaah!
“Everyone! Have you ever seen the Baidon administration appoint a Republican? The way I have joined hands with the Kennedy family?”
-Never, absolutely never!
“But I am different. If someone is looking in the same direction as me, I do not care whether he is from the Kennedy family or the Obama family! Anyone can become my friend!”
-Waaah!
“I can state this with certainty: there has never been a government like this! I am a greater president than Washington or Lincoln!”
Once the hearings were over, President Donald introduced each of his ministers one by one, showing off just how diverse his cabinet was.
His cabinet was, indeed, so diverse it was impossible to distinguish its colors. Among its members were the richest man in the world, someone from the Kennedy family, and a global warming conspiracy theorist. In terms of diversity alone, it was far more generous than the Democratic Party’s LGBTQ policies.
-Thank you, everyone. Thank you for welcoming me, a member of the Kennedy family, so warmly! In return for your trust, I will absolutely uncover the side effects of the COVID vaccine and ban the distribution of Tylenol!
And yet, somehow, every one of them looked as though they had a screw loose.
Their educational backgrounds, families, and careers were all outstanding. But for some reason, they all gave off the impression that they had graduated from college through donor admissions.
This was not a disparagement of academic credentials. They were people who, by middle school at the latest, should have resolved the sort of scientific curiosity they had carried all the way to the age of fifty.
The vast majority of physicists warned of global warming, but they believed it was a conspiracy. The vast majority of biomedical scientists warned about COVID, but they said the vaccine was worse. The vast majority of economists said that America was the greatest beneficiary of neoliberalism, but they always said America was the victim.
“...”
“...”
The pension fund executives gathered in one place sat in wordless silence.
This was, without question, the most difficult risk meeting since the Russo-Ukrainian War.
In truth, it did not even compare. Those two countries did not have all that great a presence in the global stock market, but this time, the issue was America.
“Speak freely.”
“...”
“Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Commerce delivered the tariff executive order to the White House. Now all that’s left is for the president to sign it. What do you all think the market will look like going forward?”
No sooner had the division head finished speaking than the conference room was once again swallowed by silence. It was not that they were keeping their mouths shut because they did not know what would happen. If Apple factories returned to America, then all that was left was for iPhones to cost ten million won; there was no fool who could not see the result.
That was why it was even harder... It was all the harder because the problem was so simple.
A causal relationship even a freshman economics major could understand was being denied by the White House itself, so it could not help but be maddeningly difficult.
“Director, the answer is obvious. If he signs that executive order, the American economy goes bankrupt.”
When everyone else was silent, Chief Choi of the overseas team raised his hand.
“So in the end, the issue seems to be whether he signs it or not... But surely, no matter what, he won’t, will he?”
“Why?”
“He said the exact same thing during his first term too, and in the end, it all fizzled out. Would his second term be any different?”
The division head smiled bitterly.
“I think it is different.”
“Pardon?”
“Donald’s political standing is far too different from what it was back then. Even looking at the people he picked during his first term, they at least seemed like the sort who would step on the brakes. But this time, no matter how I look at them, they’re loyalists. If the White House said the Earth was square, they look like the kind of people who would actually put it into textbooks.”
“Director...”
“Let’s set aside vague hopes. The logic that because he couldn’t do it in his first term, he won’t be able to do it in his second, doesn’t hold.”
The division head’s voice had grown extremely tense.
It could not be helped. At present, 50% of the pension fund’s assets were U.S. assets. If the U.S. stock market collapsed like it had during the Great Depression due to a tariff war, the pension fund could run dry as soon as next year.
“Director, even so, that’s far too unrealistic. Contrary to the White House’s rhetoric, the market reaction remains calm.”
-That’s right, Director. The Nasdaq is still on the rise. The consensus among most economic experts is that he will absolutely not sign the tariff order.
-In fact, if there were really signs of such a trend inside the White House, the market would already have sent a signal.
-I also think this is excessive concern. U.S. institutions with far better intelligence than us have not pulled out of the financial markets either. The Commerce Department’s tariff order is just for show.
When the majority of the team leads stood up and spoke, the division head also took a step back.
As they said, the Nasdaq was still in good condition.
“Director, of course I understand your concerns, but in times like these, we need to look at the big picture.”
“The big picture?”
“Yes. Whatever happens, is there any company in the global stock market more promising than Big Tech? There isn’t.”
“You’re saying we should take a long-term approach, not a short-term one?”
“Yes, exactly. Even if there are small trials and errors, the Nasdaq will ultimately trend upward.”
The division head’s face, which had been filled with concern at the start of the meeting, slowly began to soften.
Watching that, I smiled bitterly.
Half of that was right, and half was wrong. If my memory was correct, 20% vanished within a week. Contrary to everyone’s predictions, Donald scrawled his signature on the tariff order, and when the Nasdaq touched around 15,000, he hurriedly withdrew it.
Of course no one could have predicted it... That the president of the United States would actually sign that document, nor that after doing so, he would withdraw it within just a few days.
“From a ‘value investing’ perspective, Chief Choi’s words have a point. There will be danger, of course, but there’s no need to be too buried in short-term risk.”
“Yes, there absolutely won’t be any dynamic change.”
“Then again, if neoliberalism suddenly came to an end, even economists wouldn’t be able to predict the future, would they?”
“Yes, that’s right.”
“Then it seems I was worrying needlessly. No one else has any objections, do they?”
I raised my hand.
“Director, I think they’re going to do it.”
“What?”
“I think the White House is going to sign the tariff order.”
“...What?”
“And the resulting market shock will be beyond imagination. I think it would be best for us to temporarily evacuate our U.S. assets.”
The chiefs and team leads who had been sitting still rose up.
-Team Leader Lee, what are you suddenly talking about? Does that make sense?
-The moment he signs that, the U.S. economy scores an own goal. Even the almighty Nasdaq absolutely can’t withstand it.
I nodded.
“I know.”
-If you know, then why?
“But President Donald doesn’t seem to think that way. He seems like the sort of person who only knows whether something is shit or soybean paste after tasting it.”
-That’s absurd!
While everyone glared, the division head quieted those around him and spoke to me.
“Continue, Team Leader Lee.”
-Director! It makes no sense!
“The White House keeps saying that nonsense, which is exactly why we’re sitting here like this, isn’t it?”
-But...
“Continue, Team Leader Lee. But just because the White House is spinning conspiracy theories, that doesn’t mean you can respond with conspiracy theories, understood? I also feel that something is strange. If they impose tariffs, a 100-won item becomes 125 won, doesn’t it? Then the CPI index will obviously be wrecked, and America’s entire economic system will break down. So why is the White House still insisting on 25% tariffs?”
I answered.
“Donald’s calculation is different. Their calculation is that even if they impose tariffs, it won’t affect U.S. prices.”
“How on earth is that possible? If you slap a 25% tariff on a 100-won item, of course it becomes 125 won, doesn’t it?”
“There’s also the opposite case...”
“What?”
“The calculation that it will be passed on to the exporting country. The White House is calculating that if America imposes a 25% tariff, the exporting country will lower its unit price by 25% and supply it.”
“What, what?”
“When the prime contractor cuts the delivery price, the subcontractor doesn’t sever the deal, does it...? In the same way, the White House is currently calculating that the exporting country will lower the unit price by as much as the tariff imposed. That seems to be why they’re confident prices won’t be affected even if tariffs increase.”
The division head rubbed his temples.
“What country’s arithmetic is that...”
But he could not raise a rebuttal. It was indeed a policy that could not possibly be insisted upon unless that was the calculation.
“I think that calculation is correct. That’s why they keep appealing to their allies, saying America is suffering losses.”
“So they’re telling them to pay tribute? Lower the delivery price by however much tariff they themselves impose?”
“Yes. That’s why they’ll probably sign the tariff order.”
-Team Leader Lee, that doesn’t make any—”
“Economically, it makes no sense, but politically, it does. He effectively regained the presidency by gaining popularity through his tariff policies. Would a president like that want to become a pushover president from the very start of his term?”
-...
“Even for the sake of the authority of his second-term cabinet, he absolutely cannot back down. He’s already climbed onto the tiger’s back. He will sign the tariff order, and the shock from that will be considerable for the stock market.”
While everyone was watching one another’s reactions, I spoke emphatically.
“Donald is someone who has to test at least once whether the power of the U.S. president is stronger, or the power of the Nasdaq is stronger. We need to evacuate, even if only temporarily.”
Even the almighty president of the United States, it turned out, was less powerful than the Nasdaq.
It was not a question I had particularly been curious about, but thanks to that, I came to understand very well that in America, there was no group more powerful than financial capital.
*
“M-Mr. President. Are you serious...?”
Thomas, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce, asked with his hands trembling.
That morning, he had received an extraordinary executive order. It was the president’s signature ordering him to bring down the American economy.
Whether he knew Thomas’s feelings or not, Donald lifted his chin with an indifferent expression.
“I am. Why do you keep asking?”
“T-Tariffs are not something that can be considered so lightly. First of all...”
“Honestly, these cowards.”
“...Pardon?”
“I don’t know why everyone appointed during Baidon’s time is such a coward. This can’t be done because of this, that can’t be done because of that. Tsk, tsk.”
“Mr. President, that’s not—”
“Deputy Secretary Thomas. In truth, I knew you would come to the White House today. So I prepared a gift in advance. Take it with you.”
When Deputy Secretary Thomas confirmed what the gift was, his eyes grew even wider.
“W-What is this?”
“Your resignation letter. I wrote it for you in advance.”
“P-Pardon? What do you mean by that?”
“Bookworms really don’t understand when you speak to them politely. Tsk, tsk.”
Donald told him in a very direct way, so that he would understand.
“You are fired!”