Beijing, the Presidential Palace.
Today, yet another armed clash broke out in Donbas, and the Central National Security Council (NSC) ended up convening at the Presidential Palace.
The Chinese security officials gathered in one place all wore dark expressions.
After the Gyeongju Memorandum, the Western nations seemed to be exercising restraint, but Russia’s provocations had only grown worse. In response, China had issued a joint statement with the EU security officials and pressured Russia to end the war, but there was no sign whatsoever that they intended to listen.
“Mr. President. Before we begin the meeting in earnest, may I say something first?”
Once everyone had gathered, the foreign minister opened his mouth.
“I think it’s time we spoke frankly about why Russia’s armed provocations are continuing. On the current front line, which has already reached a stalemate, Russia would not have used force merely to seize one more scrap of land. In truth, their guns are already aimed at us.”
Everyone in the security line silently agreed with the foreign minister’s opinion.
In fact, Russia’s demands had begun quite some time ago. When the government bonds issued at the beginning of the war neared maturity, they demanded an extension, and later, they even issued yuan-denominated bonds and blatantly demanded war funds from China.
If they had been a country that would pay it back, perhaps China might gladly have lent them more. After all, even if Russia could not hold back the United States, it could certainly keep Europe tied down.
But as expected, human affairs are different going into the bathroom than coming out of it.
The bastards who had first demanded an extension of maturity gradually began demanding interest forgiveness, and later even demanded debt forgiveness.
Every incident in that series laid bare Russia’s financial difficulties.
It showed that they were a country incapable of repaying money.
—Mr. President, I share Minister Wang’s opinion. In fact, through various channels, we have made our position clear to Russia. Even so, their armed provocations continue. We can no longer sit by and watch.
Xi Jinping asked with an impassive face.
“Then what is Russia demanding?”
—Money. Debt forgiveness through a show of force. From Putin’s perspective, he likely wants to keep creating a sense of crisis and force a negotiation favorable to Russia.
“Brinkmanship?”
—Yes.
“There truly is nothing eternal in the international order. Then what if we give Russia what it wants?”
No sooner had he finished speaking than the Ministry of Commerce rose in protest.
—Mr. President, that is out of the question. In the current situation, debt forgiveness would be another form of war funding for Russia. Judging from Putin’s actions so far, he will produce more military supplies to the extent that we forgive the debt. It will only worsen the situation.
“What do the rest of you think?”
—Mr. President, I feel the same. Even if we were to concede everything and say that debt forgiveness could bring an end to the war, what would be left for China? The government bonds issued by Russia already amount to tens of billions of dollars. Even for the scale of our economy, that is an enormous sum. If we fail to recover that money, our economy will stagger as well.
Xi Jinping smiled bitterly.
The current scale of bonds issued by the Russian Central Bank amounted to 170 trillion won in Korean currency, and with the West’s financial sanctions, there were likely almost no investment firms that had purchased those bonds. In effect, it was safe to understand that China alone was holding the bag for all of it.
“...”
170 trillion... Korea’s annual budget was around 700 trillion, so roughly 25%.
In other words, for Russia to repay that money, natural gas would have to become as expensive as semiconductors.
It was a considerable sum even for China, whose annual budget reached 5 quadrillion won, so there was absolutely no way they could bring up anything like debt forgiveness.
—Mr. President. In truth, there was no helping it at the time, but another victim of this war is our China. Since Pengda’s bankruptcy, Chinese real estate has been falling without end. Even though we lifted every regulation.
The Beijing Party secretary continued as if he had made up his mind.
—The risk to our stock market due to the real estate slump is also significant. They say it has risen considerably from the low point, but compared to the global stock market boom, it is practically closer to a decline. All the global rating agencies are still concerned about our real estate risks.
“...”
—But if that money had been used to stimulate the domestic economy, would things have reached this point? If we had boosted domestic consumption and increased the purchasing power of the people, I believe the real estate market would already have recovered. Therefore, debt forgiveness is even more impossible.
Xi Jinping, who had been listening for a while, opened his mouth again.
“Good. Then what measures do you members have? Russia is not a country that will easily end its brinkmanship.”
—If not cash, then we must receive payment in kind.
“The Putin I know is not such an easy man. Once reconstruction begins, the only thing they can rely on will be natural gas. Do you think he will hand it over cheaply like now?”
—But...
“I also find that money regrettable, but you must not drive a rat too far into a corner. You have to leave it at least one way to survive while you tame it, don’t you?”
The security officials all closed their mouths. That meant President Xi had made some sort of decision.
“Let’s resolve this one step at a time. First, the end of the war. Minister Wang?”
“Yes, Mr. President.”
“Convey this to the Kremlin. The most we can do to help is interest forgiveness. Principal forgiveness is absolutely impossible. If they cease hostilities immediately tomorrow, we will forgive the interest due this time. But if the fighting continues, we will block one route through Kyrgyzstan.”
Kyrgyzstan was a passageway leading to Kazakhstan and Moscow, and a considerable strategic point for rerouted exports.
In a word, it meant they would block the rerouted export channels one by one.
“...Understood. I will convey it as such.”
“Let us end the security council here.”
When the central meeting ended, Xi Jinping muttered with a displeased face.
“Ungrateful bastard...”
It is said that money is given while sitting and collected while standing... It seemed the international order was not so different from human affairs.
Would Putin truly be satisfied with interest forgiveness?
Thinking of the money he had lent Russia, Xi Jinping saw only darkness ahead.
*
“Wait here.”
Yeominkwan, Cheong Wa Dae.
Following Prime Minister Lee Chanho’s guidance, I entered Building 1.
“This is your first time visiting Cheong Wa Dae, isn’t it?”
“Pardon? Ah, yes...”
“What kind of answer is that? Have you been here before?”
“No. Haha...”
Strict security had begun from the moment we entered Samcheong-dong, but for some reason, I felt a sense of déjà vu.
If my memory was correct, even before I became head of the investment management division, I had come and gone from this Yeominkwan frequently.
I seemed to have discussed all sorts of important state affairs, as well as deliberations on national pension reform... Was my memory right? If it was, I felt like the ending had not been particularly good. Would it be the same this time?
“I’ll tell you in advance, the President isn’t particularly pleased.”
While I was lost in thought, Lee Chanho spoke to me again.
“...Is it because of the size of the funds?”
“The size is one thing, but he dislikes the fact that the other party is Russia even more. Well, you know it well enough, don’t you? The Brown Bear Project was actually a complete bust where we got ripped off badly.”
“...”
“And now we’re on the verge of getting money taken from us by that same Russia again. Who would like that?”
I lowered my head like a criminal.
In truth, I was the kind of bastard who should have gone not to Cheong Wa Dae, but to a detention center. Just as Director Oh had said, I should have been sentenced to twenty years and left as case law showing what happens when someone embezzles 30 billion dollars.
“...It will work, Prime Minister.”
“What?”
“At that time, we were ripped off, but now the international dynamics have changed greatly. China-Russia relations will not be the same as before either.”
“Yes, I’m sure. When I said the same thing to our ministers of science and technology and national defense, they reacted just like you.”
Just then, the chief of staff entered and told us that the President would arrive soon.
“In any case, try to persuade the President well. This is as far as I can help.”
As I tried to calm my nervousness, he soon entered.
*
“It is an honor to meet you for the first time, Mr. President. I am from the pension fund risk team—”
“Yes, yes, that’s enough. I’ve heard a great deal about you, Sejun, through the Prime Minister. From what I hear, you’ve been a great help to our government.”
“I am ashamed, but I thought of it as a path for myself...”
“It’s fine, it’s fine. When one seeks to achieve a grand goal, one cannot personally uphold every single step of the process.”
Kim Sangcheol, whom I met for the first time, possessed an oppressive presence that overwhelmed the other person.
Perhaps because he was so well-versed in this sort of thing, he did not even ask how I had secured the political funds.
“I hear your returns within the pension fund are also quite impressive, Sejun. Thanks to that, you reached the position of team leader at a young age. Well, isn’t that enough? Personally, I prefer a capable person over an incorruptible one. I hold your abilities in very high regard.”
“Thank you—”
“However. The 30-billion-dollar investment in Russian bonds feels like it has slightly gone beyond that category.”
As expected, he was a man whose thoughts were impossible to read.
Just as I was about to relax a little, his criticism continued.
“First. With the West’s financial sanctions being so severe, we were in effect providing Russia with war funds. How are we supposed to make the international community understand that?”
“...”
“Second. Even if we make every concession and assume it is money we can recover, 30 billion dollars is equivalent to 45 trillion won in our currency. In my view, Russia is likely to stiff us again this time. Then how exactly are we supposed to make the public understand such a national loss?”
“...”
“Third and last. This one, you try to make me understand. Why did such a capable person invest in an asset that was obviously a non-performing bond? This is what I truly cannot understand. If you had completed the money laundering that perfectly, shouldn’t that money have been in your borrowed-name account?”
He stared straight at me.
“...The national interest.”
“What interest?”
“...You also staked your position when negotiating with the United States, Mr. President. Thanks to that, we obtained good results. Of course, my heart cannot compare to yours, Mr. President, but I wanted to be of even a little help.”
Did he like the answer?
Kim Sangcheol’s face softened somewhat, and he nodded.
“I really cannot understand it. The patriots I know perform patriotism while asking for at least a proportional representation seat. Well, fine. There are all kinds of people in the world, aren’t there? Then answer me now. What do you intend to do with these non-performing bonds?”
“...We will receive weapons.”
“Weapons?”
“It may not be an exact comparison, but Korea currently possesses independent technology for self-propelled artillery, and the restrictions on nuclear submarines have also been lifted. Our army and navy technology is effectively top-tier. I believe the next leap for our defense industry lies in missiles, including those for the air force.”
Kim Sangcheol stared at me and asked,
“Are you talking about hypersonics?”