[Breaking News—Armed Clashes Break Out in Donbas and Odesa!]
[The Gyeongju Memorandum Collapses After Just Two Weeks? Russia and Ukraine Resume Fighting!]
[Russia: “The Special Military Operation Is Not Yet Over—not Until the Neo-Nazi Forces Are Gone”]
[U.S. and China Push Back: “We Urge Both Sides to End Hostilities Immediately and Without Conditions”]
Two weeks after the Gyeongju Memorandum.
Russia’s obstinacy had begun. The Russian military started putting on a show of force, gathering large numbers of troops at five flashpoints.
But many experts predicted that this armed demonstration would not lead to escalation. The reason was China’s lukewarm attitude.
China, which had unconditionally shielded Russia until now, revealed its displeasure with Russia for the first time. Chinese authorities emphasized an “unconditional” ceasefire and urged Russia to halt the fighting, and many experts predicted that Russia would comply before long.
[Soaring Russian Government Bond Yields... Who Is Selling?]
Because behind the scenes, China was slowly tightening the leash.
“...”
If my memory was right, then just as the world expected, Russia’s tantrum would not last long.
China raised the pressure by dumping bonds, refusing maturity extensions, and blocking indirect exports, and Russia had no way to withstand it.
The armed provocation they were carrying out now was not actually aimed at the West, but at China. I didn’t know the detailed circumstances, but their finances must already be hopeless. I was becoming curious as to what Russia would try to extract from China in exchange for following the Gyeongju Memorandum.
“How on earth did you do it?”
CEO Ming, whom I met in Seoul, shook his head with a fed-up expression.
I answered with a smile.
“It’s all thanks to you trusting me, CEO.”
“To be honest, I didn’t trust you. I naturally assumed the Russian bonds would be assigned to our side and the consignment contract would end there.”
“Haha... There won’t be any issues with that part, right?”
“No. Yesterday, I met with an NPS executive and finished discussing how to transfer the Russian bonds. While I was being lectured, they reviewed our entire portfolio as well.”
“Did they... raise any issues? They must have found the materials about our speculation in Seoul real estate too.”
“No. On the contrary, they asked how we managed to get in and out so cleanly. The entire process was completed without issue.”
I let out a breath of relief.
It wasn’t as if I’d only done one or two things wrong all this time. If Changcheng Fund’s financial statements were made public, I wouldn’t have anything to say even if I got life in prison instead of twenty years.
Thank goodness they were industry people. Manager Choi, who handled Changcheng’s audit, actually asked about the secret to our speculation, and after hearing the explanation, he apparently just kept exclaiming in admiration.
“Then it really is over without any problems, right?”
CEO Ming understood what I meant and grinned.
“Yes, Team Leader. Not a single won laundered through Ms. Meilin was discovered. And there’s no way it will be discovered in the future either.”
“...That’s a relief.”
“But Team Leader, are you really sure it’s all right to transfer the Russian bonds to NPS?”
“Why?”
“For us, there’s no problem even if we hold them, but for NPS, isn’t that money like a tack inside their shoe?”
When I gave a bitter smile, CEO Ming continued.
“Please don’t misunderstand. It’s money that will become bad debt anyway, so it makes no difference to us whether we have it or not. It’s just that the rumors circulating in Shanghai lately aren’t good.”
“What rumors are going around in Shanghai these days?”
“Yes. It seems our authorities and the Russian authorities have been engaged in a subtle war of nerves since the Gyeongju Memorandum. Russia’s recent armed provocations appear to be an extension of that.”
“What kind of war of nerves...?”
“I don’t know the details either, but isn’t it obvious? It must be about maturity extensions, interest reductions, and debt forgiveness. No matter which indicators from the global ratings agencies you look at, Russia has absolutely no capacity to repay.”
I nodded bitterly.
Russia didn’t simply lack the ability to repay. It lacked the will to repay. After the war ended, Russia demanded interest and debt forgiveness just like when the Soviet Union collapsed, and because its demands were so excessive, it even earned the sneer of being an international beggar.
Because of that, contrary to the public’s expectations of a second invasion, Russia defaulted first. Well, thanks to that, the second invasion was taken off the table, so perhaps it was for the best.
“To be honest, I don’t understand why you’re insisting on taking on such a nuisance. You won’t be able to get the money back, and you’ll only have to worry endlessly about what the Western countries think.”
“I’m going to collect it.”
“Pardon?”
“If they say they can’t repay it with money, then we should at least take a few pieces of collateral.”
“...Russia has no collateral now. The only thing trustworthy is natural gas, and even that is something they absolutely can’t release for free if they’re going to handle the fiscal crisis ahead.”
“I know. That’s why I plan to take something better than natural gas.”
“...What exactly is that?”
I smiled bitterly and said,
“Brown bears?”
“...Pardon? Pandas?”
“Not pandas. Brown bears.”
“Wh-what do you mean?”
“Just consider it a state secret. This is all I can tell you. Heh heh.”
CEO Ming understood what I meant and asked no further.
“Understood. Then we’ll complete the transfer as soon as possible. And I’ll deposit the money you mentioned today to Ms. Meilin as well.”
*
“Thank you. Thanks to all the Cabinet members here, we were able to conclude everything safely and successfully. Then shall we begin today’s Cabinet meeting with the Minister of National Defense?”
Monday morning.
The first Cabinet meeting held after the APEC summit was extremely warm and cheerful. Among them, the one with the brightest expression was, as expected, President Kim Sangcheol.
During this summit, he had gotten the United States to lift restrictions on nuclear submarines, and had also significantly reduced Korea-U.S. tariffs. At the gathering of corporate leaders, he had achieved a tremendous accomplishment in the form of a massive Blackwell supply deal.
And that was not all.
Through negotiations between the U.S. and China, he had also ended a long war unfolding on the other side of the globe. Russia’s obstinacy still remained somewhat, but the West and China had met separately, shown a shared understanding regarding the Gyeongju Memorandum, and declared that they would do their utmost to stabilize the Russia-Ukraine region.
“That is unfortunate news. To hear that Russia still has not complied.”
“Yes, but I believe Russia will also soon uphold the Gyeongju Memorandum in the near future.”
“Personally, I do not believe in peace that exists in words alone. Minister of National Defense, on what basis do you make that prediction?”
“I sensed China’s active determination to end the war. It will not be easy, but I believe it will soon be settled through dialogue and compromise. Just as Korea had nuclear submarine restrictions lifted.”
The open meeting held today was, in effect, a PR session for the public.
Kim Sangcheol occasionally mentioned not only the Gyeongju Memorandum, but also the achievements Korea had secured, emphasizing just how successful this summit had been.
In fact, the administration’s approval ratings had risen considerably after APEC, so the ministers’ morale was sky-high.
“Very well. Then we will conclude today’s Cabinet meeting here. Everyone, you have worked hard.”
“Yes, Mr. President. You truly worked hard!”
The highly encouraged ministers ended today’s Cabinet meeting with thunderous applause.
But after the Cabinet meeting ended and he was left alone with the Prime Minister, Kim Sangcheol looked out at the distant sky with an uneasy expression.
“Prime Minister, is that true?”
Because a matter that could not be mentioned in the open meeting had been reported to the President.
“Yes, it is true.”
Namely, the fact that the National Pension Service had purchased thirty billion dollars’ worth of Russian bonds.
“How on earth is that possible? As far as I know, all of our financial authorities actively participated in the West’s financial sanctions.”
“It was a purchase through a third party... The pension fund selected an external manager, and that manager apparently bought Russian bonds.”
“Didn’t the financial sanctions on Russia apply not only to public institutions but also to private fund companies?”
“...It was a Chinese fund company. According to the pension fund’s explanation, the bonds were purchased without their knowledge, but the returns were so good that they didn’t notice.”
Kim Sangcheol frowned.
“Prime Minister, I’m inclined to overlook most things, but that simply doesn’t add up. The pension fund selecting a Chinese fund company, that fund company buying Russian bonds without the pension fund knowing—none of it makes any sense.”
“...Which is why, Mr. President, there is someone I would like to introduce to you.”
“Introduce?”
Lee Chanho leaned in and whispered to him, as if afraid someone might overhear.
“By Lee Sejun, you mean that...?”
“...Yes. The young man I mentioned to you several times. As you said, Mr. President, this is a story where nothing adds up, but according to him, he was the one who did it.”
“Is the people’s retirement money a joke? How dare he pull something so reckless?”
“But he says he has something urgent to tell you, Mr. President. He says there is a way to collect the thirty billion dollars.”
Lee Chanho whispered to the President again.
But the President’s expression remained unimpressed.
“So you’re saying we shouldn’t receive it in money, but in technology of equivalent value?”
“Yes... Well, we’ve already done the Brown Bear Project once before, haven’t we?”
“I know. I also know that the Brown Bear Project ended up costing more than it was worth, and that the Russians were especially stubborn about not paying back our money.”
In truth, contrary to public perception, the Brown Bear Project had been a complete rip-off.
The military technology transferred from Russia was greatly exaggerated, and in reality, it was a project where more money had been defaulted on than recovered.
At the time, Korea lent the Soviet Union three billion dollars in the form of a loan, an amount equal to ten percent of its foreign exchange reserves. Fortunately—or unfortunately—the Soviet Union collapsed when about half of it had been sent.
To put it in present-day terms, it was as if we had been cheated out of roughly twenty billion dollars. In truth, it was probably an even larger amount. Korea’s economic circumstances in the 1990s and those of today were worlds apart.
“Am I wrong, Prime Minister?”
“...”
“The money we borrowed from Camdessus during the IMF crisis was 19.5 billion dollars, and the money the Soviet bastards pocketed was 1.5 billion dollars. Since there was about an eight-year gap between the Soviet collapse and the IMF crisis, if you include the interest that would have accrued in that time, it’s at least three billion dollars.”
“...”
“And we’re buying bonds from those people again? Judging by the state of the Russia-Ukraine war, there’s no longer any military technology worth learning from them either.”
The Prime Minister smiled bitterly and said,
“That young man had thought that far as well. That is why this time, he is aiming not at the military, but at basic science.”
“Basic science?”
“Yes. Space and aviation, as well as nuclear power. In particular, when it comes to nuclear power, our domestic technology ranks first in construction capability, but Westinghouse has a firm grip on the original technology. Because of that, every time we win an overseas order, those people make a fuss over royalties.”
“Hm...”
“On the other hand, Russian nuclear power plants have their own technology, and we can also cooperate with them on next-generation SMRs. Space and aviation go without saying. In particular, for hypersonic technology, which is currently the greatest area of interest among major powers, Russia is second only to the United States. The technological gap is considerable for us to catch up through independent development.”
“Prime Minister, do you agree with that young man’s opinion?”
“To be honest, it is not my field of expertise, so I cannot say for certain. However, I discreetly asked the Ministers of National Defense and Science and ICT about this, and the two of them had the same reaction.”
Lee Chanho’s resolute expression said it all. It was obvious what the reaction of the Defense Ministry and the Ministry of Science and ICT had been.
Kim Sangcheol wore an uneasy expression for a moment before continuing.
“And this young man says he wants to see me in person this time?”