[Breaking News—Seoul Mayoral Election, Choe Sang-dong Elected!]
[First Change of Mayor in 10 Years... Min Seong-cheol: “I Accept the Election Results and Congratulate Candidate Choe Sang-dong”]
[Choe Sang-dong: “There Is No Ruling or Opposition Party in Good City Administration. Good Policies Will Be Continued... Special Thanks to Mayor Min”]
[Is There Another Real Winner? Conservative Reform Party Achieves 15% for the First Time in a Major Election!]
[Party Leader Bak Seong-man: “I Saw Hope in Korean Politics. Deep Gratitude to Candidate Gim Jae-jin for Doing His Best to the End”]
The Seoul mayoral election, fierce until the very end, came to a close with Choe Sang-dong winning by 8,041 votes.
The fact that the “Seoul President” had changed was surprising news in itself, but the Conservative Reform Party surpassing 15% support for the first time was even more shocking.
—Director, how would you summarize the results of this election?
—First, to explain it from the public’s point of view, Candidate Min Seong-cheol’s approval rating fell too much. Local elections are originally the graveyard of the ruling party, and this election was also held under fairly unfavorable conditions, but Candidate Min’s support seems to have been particularly sluggish.
—Then what would you say caused that? Candidate Choe Sang-dong’s strong showing?
—I don’t think so. From the first debate until now, Candidate Choe has very consistently advocated regulation. Because of that, he was unable to shake off the disgraceful nickname of “gaffe machine” throughout the entire election.
—Then was it Candidate Gim Jae-jin’s surge?
—That was probably the biggest reason. Compared to the opinion poll from three weeks ago, there wasn’t much change in Candidate Choe’s support, but there was a significant change in the Reform Party’s support.
—So in the end, losing votes from the same base was the major factor?
—It seems that way. With the death of the former president, the Conservative Party is currently in great turmoil, and after this election, I believe the conservative bloc—no, the entire political landscape of Korea—will undergo considerable change.
The anchor wrapped things up and said,
—Very well. To summarize, you’re saying it was less Candidate Choe’s competitiveness and more a case of benefiting from others’ misfortune. However, though Mayor-elect Choe has won with difficulty, he still has many tasks ahead of him. In particular, there are still many concerns regarding real estate. What do you think Mayor-elect Choe’s future city administration will look like?
Gim Myeong-cheol smiled bitterly.
—From now on, how he was elected is no longer important. Whatever the process was, the important fact is that Candidate Choe consistently put forward regulation as his pledge and was elected anyway. If I were to predict what lies ahead, I would say the regulatory stance will likely continue.
—Then will Seoul housing prices rise even more?
—We’ll have to wait and see about that. Since he strongly advocated population dispersal measures, I believe there will be many variables.
On my way to Seoul, I set down my phone and let out a breath, smoothing a hand over my chest.
A vast future had changed by a single thread. In the future I knew, Mayor Min Seong-cheol was reelected and stabilized housing prices through massive supply, but now that future would change.
In truth, I had no memory of any history where the mayor of Seoul implemented an ultra-hardline population dispersal policy. So even I could not guarantee what lay ahead.
Would this population dispersal really lead to balanced development between the provinces and Seoul, or would it become another policy that fizzled out halfway like it had under the Participatory Government twenty years ago?
“...”
Still, the fortunate thing was that public perception was quite different from twenty years ago.
Twenty years ago, public opposition to relocating the capital had reached 70%, and even the Constitutional Court had opposed moving the capital, but things were not like that these days.
Concerns about the side effects of the Republic of Seoul had begun to spread among the public, and the Constitutional Court was quiet these days.
Was it thanks to that gentleman who took the bullet and got cursed at for it?
“Hello, Candidate. No, Mayor.”
“Oh my, welcome, Mr. Sejun. No, our Team Leader Lee!”
When I visited Choe Sang-dong’s campaign office, he rushed out to greet me.
Since he had won an election he was naturally supposed to lose, this campaign office was no different from a festival.
“I heard all the details of your situation from the Prime Minister. They said you met with Conservative Reform Party Leader Bak Seong-man?”
“I’m not sure if I was of any help. Haha...”
“Help? Of course you were! Thanks to Candidate Gim Jae-jin’s performance, Mayor Min’s support completely collapsed. It’s all thanks to you, Team Leader. I’ll never forget this favor, not even when I die.”
The “Lee In-je strategy” had indeed been quite effective. Thanks to that, Choe Sang-dong, whose support had stagnated while he was branded a gaffe machine, reached first place without doing anything at all.
“You mean that, right? You really won’t forget the help I gave you, right?”
“Of course. Please read this document. It’s the agenda I’ll announce at the city administration meeting coming up soon.”
I lowered my head and examined the documents.
They were quite satisfying documents. They said that regulations would continue to be maintained across all of Seoul, and that school districts and corporations would be relocated in stages.
On top of that,
“The jeonse regulation you want, Team Leader Lee, will be implemented as soon as I take office. We’ll gradually reduce the current jeonse loans, which allow up to 70%, by 10% each year and shift them toward monthly rent.”
“Then, for now, you’ll be able to turn jeonse demand toward semi-jeonse?”
“Yes. Turning jeonse into monthly rent all at once is impossible, but transitioning from jeonse to semi-jeonse to monthly rent isn’t that unreasonable. Of course, support measures will be necessary. We’ll increase income deductions for monthly rent residents and provide subsidies to landlords as well, doing our utmost to help the market settle.”
It seemed he truly was someone who knew gratitude.
At our first meeting, my impression of him hadn’t been particularly good, but he treated me with great courtesy and reflected most of the policies I wanted.
“What thanks? I only barely won an election I should have lost, all thanks to our Team Leader Lee. Team Leader Lee, let’s stay together for a long time!”
Choe Sang-dong clung to my hand almost grotesquely and kept bowing his head.
I smiled awkwardly.
In this life, would I be able to avoid seeing Eunma Apartment hit ten billion won...?
*
“What a mess. Tsk, tsk.”
When I returned to headquarters, Director Yu Myeong-jin was clicking his tongue while watching the news.
“Can Mayor Min even make a political comeback after that? How do you completely blow an election you obviously should have won?”
“It was a three-way race.”
“Then he should have cleaned up his own house before entering the election. Does it make sense to lose 15% support to Gim Jae-jin, who couldn’t even appear in the legally mandated debate? And at the very end, no less?”
Director Yu sighed.
Right now, we still had something more important than the election results. Namely, what would happen to Seoul housing prices from here on out.
“Team Leader Lee. What do you think about Seoul housing prices?”
“What do you think, Director?”
“I’m pessimistic, of course. Since Min Seong-cheol’s supply bomb has gone down the drain, Seoul housing prices have no choice but to rise even more. We already experienced it during the Geupdongsan days, didn’t we? If regulations continue, eventually, being designated an overheated speculation district becomes a certificate guaranteeing housing prices.”
“Instead, Mayor Choe promised an enormous population dispersal policy.”
“That’s completely unrealistic. He’ll only pretend to do it, and in the end it’ll fizzle out. Relocating corporate school districts is absolutely impossible.”
Director Yu spoke with certainty.
“Team Leader Lee, no matter how I look at it, this is history repeating itself. Regulation alone, without supply, can never stop housing prices from rising. I’ll have to instruct our external managers to acquire Seoul apartments even more aggressively.”
“I think a little differently, Director.”
“What?”
“This is intelligence I obtained with difficulty. Would you like to take a look?”
I handed him the city administration plan I had received from Choe Sang-dong.
Before long, Director Yu’s eyes went wide.
“What, what is this? Jeonse loan regulations?”
“Yes. I believe Mayor Choe will announce it in his first city policy speech. It looks like he’ll gradually reduce the current 70% loans.”
“No, is Mayor Choe really going to turn Seoul into a monthly rent hell?”
“Monthly rent is originally the natural thing, isn’t it? Taking out a bank loan just to lend money to your landlord for jeonse is the stranger practice...”
“Natural or whatever, no one can fix that anymore. If he does this, there’ll be a coup in Seoul.”
“I think he’ll push it through. This information came from a trustworthy source within the Minguk Party.”
To Director Yu, who looked despairing, I handed over a second document.
“And this is the relocation plan for corporations and school districts. It looks like they’ll first relocate specialized high schools to the provinces, and then gradually move corporations that have factories in the provinces.”
“No, they’re really doing this too?!”
“Well, all the civil servants, public enterprises, and affiliated agencies have already been relocated to the provinces, haven’t they? This is an issue the opposition party doesn’t strongly oppose either, so I think it will gain even more momentum.”
In truth, the relocation of public enterprises and civil servants had already begun twenty years ago.
The reason our Investment Management Headquarters, which should have been in Yeouido, was exiled(?) to Jeonju was also because of this balanced development policy. Since the opposition party had not strongly opposed this issue either, it seemed likely to proceed at an even faster pace from now on.
“No matter what, this doesn’t make sense! Civil servants belong to state institutions, so fine, they can do as they please, but how are they going to force private companies...”
“If they don’t move, I suspect they’ll impose a massive tax. A Seoul tax...?”
“What kind of tax is that? Team Leader Lee, where did you get these documents?”
“I got them from someone truly reliable.”
“Haa... No, this is really...”
“With all due respect, Director. Mayor Choe put forward relocation pledges even when he was still a candidate, and he said he would maintain regulations despite being called a gaffe machine. He already announced this in his pledges, so do you think he’ll break from this stance?”
Director Yu sighed.
It must have been frustrating. If this became reality, the population itself would disappear from the capital region, and then no one would know where housing prices were headed.
“Is it really possible to catch housing prices by destroying demand?”
“There are already sixty thousand unsold malicious units in the provinces. The government will actively support Mayor Choe’s policy too, so I think it will gain momentum. And”
I handed him the final document.
“What do you think about our alternative investment team investing here? After liquidating Seoul real estate.”
“...What is this? China?”
“Yes. The area around Beijing and Shanghai. They call it xuequfang. If you compare it to Korea, it’s like Gangnam’s District Eight?”
“You think I, the head of alternatives, don’t know xuequfang? I also know very well that real estate there has become a graveyard. Honestly, who invests in Chinese real estate these days? With Pengda’s bankruptcy, it’s a subprime crisis over there right now.”
“That’s why we should buy.”
“...What?”
“If we had bought Microsoft and Amazon during the dot-com bubble, we would be filthy rich by now. Doesn’t any investment make the most money when you buy in fear?”
“...This isn’t fear. It’s hell. According to global rating agencies, China has millions of unsold homes right now, but the Chinese authorities don’t even release statistics. No, even if they did, they wouldn’t be very trustworthy. So how are we supposed to make a blind investment there?”
“That single blow won’t make China collapse. It will continue to grow economically, and the purchasing power of its people will rise. If my memory is correct, housing prices around Shanghai and Beijing soared again.”
“What are you talking about? If your memory is correct?”
“Ah, no, my prediction. In my view, Chinese real estate will start stirring again before long.”
Director Yu sank into thought for quite some time.
We had to look at this coldly. Would China suffer thirty lost years like Japan, or would it normalize soon like after the subprime crisis?
Since what determines real estate prices is ultimately that country’s GDP growth rate, it was necessary to examine the overall indicators of the economy.
After a long contemplation, he soon opened his mouth.
“I’m not sure... Well, if that’s your opinion, then let’s hold a meeting. Let’s gather all our external managers and put our heads together.”