“Esteemed citizens! Will you continue to stand by and watch this government indulge in anti-market regulations? Will you place yet another futile hope in a progressive administration that has always failed on real estate? I say to you, there is no such thing! No government on earth can defeat the market! Supply that meets demand is the only answer! I, Min Seongcheol, will do it! With supply that meets demand, I will rein in housing prices and grow our Seoul into one of the world’s top twenty brand cities. Make Seoul great again!”
“Esteemed citizens! If real estate were such an easy problem, why is America suffering from subprime, and why is China reeling from the bankruptcy of Evergrande? Do you think the real estate oversupply problem that even the G2 could not avoid will somehow spare us? I say to you, it will not! At present, Korea already has sixty thousand maliciously unsold apartment units in the provinces, which can only be called a dangerous level! I, Choe Sangdong, will do it! I will revive the social discourse that came to a halt twenty years ago! This contradiction—where in Seoul people cannot buy because there is nothing to buy, while in the provinces they cannot buy because there is too much left over—must be resolved through the joint development of the provinces and Seoul! Make Seoul great together with the provinces!”
“Good evening, citizens. I, Kim Jaejin! Even now, when I think of that day, my knees go weak and my hands tremble. For a president who should have defended the Constitution to leave this world so irresponsibly! Our conservatives, who began with YS smashing Hanahoe, have shouldered enormous disgrace because of one predecessor. But judging from the way things look, there is no sign of improvement! So in this vote, I ask you to give your answer! Who is the legitimate heir of conservatism? Are those people who spend their whole lives winning five or six terms in their Yeongnam safe seats truly conservatives? I, Kim Jaejin, believe. I believe Seoul will be different! I have no doubt that our Seoul, which has not been swallowed by camp politics, will choose the better candidate!”
D-7, the day early voting began.
The candidates from the three parties appealed to their supporters for one desperate vote with more fervor than ever.
Unlike the first official debate, which had ended blandly, the second and third debates were nothing short of fierce. That was because the sudden rise of Kim Jaejin had turned the debates into a three-way battle.
Having reached 5% in the polls and been invited from the second debate onward, Kim Jaejin methodically took aim at Min Seongcheol. He diligently scraped together votes by attacking not only Min’s showpiece administration and scandals, but even his ambiguous attitude toward his predecessor.
Mayor Min, who had managed to break through the Minguk Party’s criticisms with tu quoque logic, had no escape route when it came to Kim Jaejin’s attacks.
“U-unification. We will unify the conservative candidacy! Candidate Kim Jaejin, please return to the negotiating table!”
The Reform Party, which shared the same rice bowl, was no easy opponent.
Because of that, as the election entered its final stages, he repeatedly called for unification, but Kim Jaejin showed no sign of returning.
And for good reason: the Reform Party’s once-mediocre approval rating had broken through 10%, putting it within reach of the 15% needed to receive full reimbursement for election expenses.
[Breaking News — Early Voting at 31%, Highest in History!]
[Early Voting Favors Progressive Parties... Will It Hold True Again?]
[Unending War of Nerves Among the Three Party Candidates!]
[Kim Jaejin: “I Don’t Understand Why a Party That Blindly Believes in Election Fraud Is Encouraging Early Voting... Mayor Min Must State His Position Clearly Even Now!”]
And so, contrary to Mayor Min’s hopes, the opposition candidates failed to unify to the very end, and before long, election-day voting in the local elections began.
“Good evening, viewers. I am anchor Kim Seongjun, and I will be bringing you today’s election coverage. As I speak, election-day voting has come to an end. In one minute, the exit poll jointly conducted by the three terrestrial broadcasters will be announced. Joining us for today’s broadcast is election expert Director Kim Myeongcheol. Director Kim?”
“Yes, good to be here. I am Kim Myeongcheol.”
Once all voting had finally ended, each broadcaster quickly began its election coverage.
Before the main broadcast began in earnest, the exit poll was announced, and the result was highly unexpected.
“Ah... yes. As I speak, the exit poll has been announced. The result is quite surprising. Director Kim, what do you think?”
Election expert Kim Myeongcheol gave a bitter smile and shook his head.
“It’s extremely unexpected. Yes, of course, we’ll have to wait and see, but it is extremely unexpected.”
“Did you anticipate this result, Director?”
“To be honest... not at all? I thought this would be an easy election, so this is very surprising.”
The exit poll showed Min Seongcheol at 41%, Choe Sangdong at 40%, and Kim Jaejin at 16%, an extremely close race.
Kim Myeongcheol could not continue speaking.
The exit poll was not the end. Early voting had always been considered bad news for conservative parties. That was why conservatives usually had to win by a comfortable margin in the exit poll for the vote count result to be assured, but this time, the picture looked deeply uneasy.
“Ah, yes. As I speak, the vote count has begun. First, Gangnam-gu!”
While the small talk was ending, the ballot boxes of Gangnam-gu were opened.
The anchor’s speech grew even faster.
“Unlike the exit poll, the vote share in Gangnam is completely different. Mayor Min’s vote share is 63%, Candidate Choe 23%, Candidate Kim 11%... it is practically a one-man show. And as I speak, Seocho and Songpa have also begun counting. The vote shares are not very different. Director?”
Kim Myeongcheol was cool.
“I don’t think it can be called a one-man show. In the so-called Gangnam Three Districts, Mayor Min failed to reach 70%.”
“Then do you see this as weakness, Director?”
“That’s right. In fact, the Gangnam Three Districts are conservative strongholds on par with Yeongnam. On top of that, they were directly hit by government regulations, so I understood public sentiment there to be quite harsh, but he does not seem to have opened as wide a gap as expected.”
“Then what would be the cause?”
“The answer is on the graph. The votes Candidate Kim Jaejin received appear to have originally belonged to Candidate Min.”
Kim Myeongcheol spoke pessimistically, but the continuing vote count results proceeded contrary to his expectations.
“As I speak. The count has begun in Mapo, Yongsan, and Seongdong-gu! Candidate Min’s vote share tallied so far is 53%, with the other two candidates at 34% and 10%, respectively. Director?”
“Again, I don’t think that’s a large gap. Mayongseong is the next regulated area after the Gangnam Three Districts, yet the vote gap between the first- and second-place candidates is not even over 20 percentage points.”
“But this is a very different result from the exit poll. Candidate Min’s vote share so far is over 61%.”
“We’ll have to watch a little longer. The Gangnam Three Districts and Mayongseong can be called Daehan Party strongholds.”
Kim Myeongcheol spoke pessimistically once again, but the following vote count results again defied his expectations.
“Yes, as I speak, Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk have also begun counting. Mayor Min is tallied at 49%, with the other two candidates at 34% and 15%, respectively. Director?”
Kim Myeongcheol flinched for a moment.
Was that not it...? Was I wrong? Of Seoul’s twenty-five districts, nine had begun counting, and Mayor Min’s vote share was still above a majority.
“Director, you keep saying this isn’t the case, but Candidate Min’s vote count result remains strong. Even so, is Candidate Min at a disadvantage?”
“Er... well. But even so, Nodogang is still a regulated area, so perhaps votes went to the opposition...”
“But right now, all of Seoul is under regulation. If we go by what you’re saying, then all of Seoul is ultimately an opposition stronghold. In that case, isn’t this an overwhelming victory for Candidate Min?”
“Let’s watch a little longer for now. In my experience, the Seoul mayoral election only begins once the ballot boxes in Guro and Geumcheon are opened.”
This time, Kim Myeongcheol’s prediction proved correct.
When the count began in districts far from Gangnam, Min Seongcheol’s majority vote share slowly began to fall.
“Director, your prediction was right. Counting has begun in Guro, Geumcheon, and Eunpyeong-gu. In this count, it appears that Candidate Choe, not Candidate Min, has exceeded a majority in support. Director?”
“Yes, in fact, from here on can be called the true start of the election coverage. Not only Guro and Geumcheon, but Gangseo and Yangcheon-gu are also not friendly to the Daehan Party. In particular, Gwanak-gu, where many Seoul National University students reside. This place can actually be called the opposition’s graveyard. I am curious about the vote count results in Minguk Party strongholds.”
His prediction proved correct once more.
As the count began in areas where the Minguk Party was strong, Min Seongcheol’s one-man show slowly began to shake. In particular, along the Line 2 corridor, which included many university districts, Kim Jaejin’s advance stood out, and this was a phenomenon with many implications for Korean politics.
“Ah... yes. Director. As I speak, the so-called Line 2 corridor, the areas around university districts, has begun counting. In some areas, a strange phenomenon is unfolding in which Candidate Kim Jaejin has reached first place. How do you diagnose this?”
“I would call it the complete parting of ways between men in their twenties and men in their sixties.”
“You mean a generational split?”
“That’s right. In fact, until twenty years ago, Korea traditionally showed a clear tendency for young people to support progressives and older people to support conservatives. But with the gender issues that flared up recently, men in their twenties shifted toward conservatism, and within that, there were signs of factional conflict between the younger faction and the old guard, you see?”
“That structure has broken?”
“That appears to be the case. After the founding of the Conservative Reform Party, the departure of men in their twenties and thirties from the conservatives is becoming a reality. Even in this election, it has been assessed that the factional fight within the same conservative camp was fiercer than the fight against the opposing camp. After this election, I think the two parties will fight even more fiercely over who is the legitimate heir.”
The anchor asked while organizing his documents.
“Then it seems we must now move from regional divisions to generational divisions. As I speak, the early voting ballot boxes have begun to be counted. For now, Candidate Min’s vote share is 51%, performing well outside the margin of error compared to the other candidates. Director?”
“If we look at cases so far, early voting has always been unfavorable to conservative parties. That 51% right now is absolutely not a safe vote share.”
“Then which party will it be most favorable to? The Minguk Party?”
“In the sense that young voters participate, it won’t be an entirely favorable factor only for the Minguk Party. I think the Minguk Party and the Reform Party will show quite a contest.”
“But many people are still concerned about the psychology of wasted votes. Because of that, many experts also predict that the Reform Party’s actual vote share will not be high?”
“My view is a little different. In the Reform Party’s case, of course winning will be difficult, but from a past approval rating of one or two percent, it has recently received party support of up to 10%. If it surpasses 15%, which would allow it to receive full reimbursement for election expenses, I think a considerable change could occur in the conservative landscape.”
“Then will it be able to surpass 15% in this election?”
While Kim Myeongcheol gave an awkward smile, the early voting ballot boxes opened at a terrifying speed, and enormous changes began to appear in each candidate’s support rate.
“Ah... yes. Early voting really is different. As I speak, Candidate Min Seongcheol’s majority vote share has collapsed. The current vote count rate across Seoul is 84%. Min Seongcheol 48%, Choe Sangdong 41%, Kim Jaejin 13%...”
Silence settled over the studio.
That was because the more the early voting boxes were tallied, the more the election result resembled the exit poll.
“Yes... the current time is 10 p.m. The vote count rate across Seoul is 95%. Candidate Min Seongcheol 44%, Candidate Choe Sangdong 42%, Candidate Kim Jaejin 13%...”
Then, before long, the vote shares entered the margin of error, and the first- and second-place candidates even began to overtake each other back and forth.
“Yes... as I speak, the vote count rate across Seoul is 98%. Candidates Min Seongcheol and Choe Sangdong are each at 42%, competing in the decimal points. The vote gap is thirteen thousand votes, the lowest in history. Accordingly, the mood at each party’s camp must be quite something. Let us connect to the scene.”
As soon as the anchor finished speaking, the camps of the three parties appeared on the broadcast screen.
Unlike the two parties holding their breath, there was one party already holding a celebration.
“Yes... the Conservative Reform Party. Representative Park Seongman is currently embracing Candidate Kim Jaejin and shedding tears. Regardless of whether he is elected, this time the Reform Party has reached 15%, allowing it to receive full reimbursement for election expenses. However, the winner has not yet been decided. Nationwide vote count rate, 99%. Vote gap, 800 votes... What will be the fate of Seoul—”
Before the anchor could even finish speaking, each broadcaster began displaying the sign confirming the winner on screen.
It was the fiercest election in history. The vote gap between first and second place was not even ten thousand votes.
Amid cheers and despair, the concession speech from the losing side began first.
“...I concede defeat.”