Tokyo.
Seiryū Reinsurance executive conference room.
Seiryū Reinsurance. (Seiryū Reinsurance, 青龍再保険)
Asia’s largest marine and aviation reinsurer.
A considerable number of Asia’s major non-life insurers and shipowners’ associations were reinsured with Seiryū Reinsurance.
It was an extremely conservative company, but,
once it moved, its influence was great enough for the entire market to react.
It was the industry’s leader and standard-setter.
“Director Tachibana, what happened with the Korea matter?”
The marketing director asked.
“You mean the holding of reinsurance for the Korean routes?”
At the marketing director’s question, Risk Management Director Tachibana answered calmly.
Putting the Korean routes on hold was a major affair even within Seiryū Reinsurance.
“That’s right. To be honest, I find it a bit puzzling. As far as I know, there are no particular risks in Korea right now?”
“When you say risk, what exactly are you referring to?”
“A risk management director doesn’t even know that? Military clashes or war, port accidents, terrorism threats, and so on. Isn’t that what risk is?”
“I know. Those are risks anyone can see. But what we look at are risks that have not yet revealed themselves as incidents—in other words, things that are invisible.”
Tachibana answered slowly.
“What is an invisible risk supposed to be?”
The marketing director asked, sounding disgruntled.
“The Korean routes are excellent. There isn’t much accident history, and their port infrastructure is also outstanding.”
“Then what’s the problem?”
“Aging.”
“Aging?”
“What is responsible for Korea’s transport right now is not a standardized system, but individual experience and skill. What if those people retire? If the veterans start leaving, there’s a very high possibility that problems will arise. We are trying to reassess the risk posed by those people before an accident occurs.”
“But there still hasn’t been any visible incident. No problem, either.”
“Saying it’s dangerous after an accident has already happened is not what an insurer should do. What we must do is identify structural flaws that have a high chance of causing accidents before they occur.”
The marketing director frowned.
It was true, but far too theoretical.
Something like that might be the correct answer in school, but not in a company.
“Isn’t that too abstract? To make such a massive decision based on vague speculation without evidence. I can’t understand it.”
“Risk is not a matter of numbers. It is a matter of interpretation. Suppose there is a person who weighs 100 kilograms. Since they weigh over 100 kilograms, should we automatically issue an obesity warning? No. We have to look at that person’s height and muscle mass. Conversely, even 80 kilograms can be dangerous if they are 150 centimeters tall. The number itself has no meaning. The method of interpreting it is what differs.”
Everyone seemed to accept Tachibana’s explanation.
But the marketing director still seemed to have something to say.
“Then how long are we going to stop? Korea is a major market. It isn’t a country we can keep holding indefinitely.”
“Director, are you saying that we should accept insurance for the Korean routes despite there being risk?”
The marketing director’s expression stiffened.
“When did I say that? I’m just frustrated that we have to sit and watch revenue fall.”
“If that’s the case, then it’s fine. You won’t be held responsible for that.”
Tachibana spoke in an even tone.
“What?”
“It is an order from the Committee.”
At the word Committee, the conference room fell silent.
Among those attending the meeting, none knew the faces of the Committee.
But they knew with certainty that the Committee existed.
Simply put, it was something like the owner and the ultimate decision-maker.
The moment that name came up, any further objection became meaningless.
Everyone agreed through silence.
********
The same day.
Zurich, Nordhafen Re.
“They say Seiryū has placed a hold on the Korean routes.”
When the news arrived, the European reinsurer Nordhafen was also thrown into agitation.
An emergency meeting was held.
“Seiryū did?”
“Yes.”
A brief silence passed.
Seiryū did not move without reason.
So if Seiryū had put something on hold, there was definitely some kind of problem.
The issue was that they did not know the reason.
“There weren’t any accidents we don’t know about, correct?”
“None.”
“No war, no terrorism?”
“Yes. We confirmed it by satellite as well.”
“And yet they’re reassessing exposure?”
Several executives looked as if they could not understand.
One of them shook his head and spoke.
“Korea is a country that keeps things neatly managed. And yet a reassessment?”
“That’s exactly why it’s even stranger. It means there may be a problem serious enough for them to order a reassessment on such a prime route.”
The conference room grew quiet.
No one could speak.
Reinsurance was usually not entrusted to just one place.
Risk was dispersed by signing up across multiple continents—Asia, Europe, and so on.
Seiryū, one axis of that balance, had pulled out.
With Seiryū out, the whole of Asia had effectively pulled out.
Now, if they accepted reinsurance on the Korean routes,
Nordhafen—Europe—would have to shoulder it all.
Seiryū and Asia, who had shared the risk, were gone.
They could no longer distribute risk, the greatest advantage of reinsurance.
If an accident occurred, Nordhafen would have to take it all.
The Korean routes were indeed clean, but,
if an accident were to occur, they would have no choice but to pay an enormous insurance payout.
Their concerns deepened.
“What are we doing right now?”
“For the time being, we are holding.”
After thinking briefly, the CEO made a decision.
“Then let’s keep it that way.”
“Will that be all right?”
“Seiryū moved first, so let’s watch the situation. We’ll decide according to how Seiryū moves.”
The CEO decided on a hold.
They did not know exactly what the risk was.
But because it was not clear, pushing ahead would not be right either.
There was no need to take on the Korean routes while deliberately shouldering danger.
So the conclusion was a hold.
“Understood.”
The meeting ended like that.
After that day, many insurance requests for the Korean routes came in, but all of them were put on hold.
No reason was given.
They could not say they were following Seiryū.
They merely repeated that they were following internal guidelines.
*******
Seoul.
Government Complex Seoul Annex.
The president, along with working-level officials from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, the Financial Services Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Intelligence Service, and others,
gathered in one place.
There was no official name for the meeting.
It was an unofficial meeting conducted in utmost secrecy, with no records left behind.
The air in the conference room was heavy from the start.
“I’ll summarize.”
The head of the Shipping Policy Division at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport summarized the PPT.
“Japan’s major reinsurer, Seiryū Reinsurance, has put reinsurance for Korean routes overall on hold, citing a risk reassessment.”
“European reinsurers have also taken the same measure in succession.”
“At present, numerous shipping companies are delaying or canceling shipments because they have been unable to secure insurance.”
“We expect logistics as a whole to become rapidly unstable in the near future.”
The president cut in immediately.
“So, to summarize, they’re refusing to insure us?”
“They are not refusing. They are withholding their decision. That is why it is a hold, not a rejection.”
“That’s the same thing. This isn’t some word game. Either way, the shipping companies can’t obtain insurance, can they?”
The president grumbled, sounding somewhat angry.
“That is correct. It is a de facto rejection.”
The division chief from the Ministry of Land nodded.
“No, fine, whether it’s a hold or a rejection, that’s all well and good. But what do they say the reason is?”
“As I said… risk reassessment…”
“Don’t they do that every year? I’m asking why a reassessment suddenly popped up out of nowhere. If we don’t know this, we can’t solve the problem. It’s not as if we have overland routes. If we can’t export or import, we simply starve to death. This is serious. Foreign Ministry?”
Uncomfortable with receiving the same parroted answer, the president looked toward the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Yes.”
“Did you ask the Japanese side?”
“When we inquired through official channels, we received the response that ‘the government is unaware of the matter. It is an independent judgment by a private insurer.’”
“Private? Huh.”
The president gave a short laugh.
It was closer to a scoff.
“Let me ask you something. Financial Services Commission.”
“Yes?”
“Can a private company independently make a decision on that scale? Without coordination with the government?”
The division chief from the Financial Services Commission thought for a moment before answering.
“It is true that the right lies with the private company, but… in reality, it would be difficult. Especially at this scale, it should be considered impossible.”
“Then we should protest. Shouldn’t we do something?”
The president’s voice rose.
He seemed angry at the officials, who still had not even grasped the situation properly despite such a major incident having occurred.
“There are no grounds for protest.”
The division chief from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs answered.
“What?”
“First, since this is a matter of private contracts, it is an area where the government has difficulty intervening. And what Seiryū is doing is neither discrimination, nor sanctions, nor a change in terms. They are merely saying they will put it on hold for a while, so it is extremely awkward for us to intervene.”
“Haa…”
The president let out a deep sigh.
The atmosphere in the conference room grew even more serious.
“Then what about Europe? Why are they doing it?”
“Their official reason is also internal guidelines, but it seems that because Seiryū moved, they are simply playing it safe as well.”
“They don’t want to be the only ones stuck with the bill?”
“That appears to be the case.”
“Then shouldn’t we do something? Shouldn’t we prepare and distribute materials proving that we have no accidents?”
“I’m sorry. Domestic insurers prepared and distributed materials, but they had no effect.”
After thinking it over, the president suggested an idea.
“Is there no way for the government to guarantee it? I think that would solve the issue.”
“In theory, it is possible.”
“However, if we do that, accidents suspected to be insurance fraud will pour in on an enormous scale.”
“There is also a high possibility of deliberate accidents.”
“Ship accidents are on a different scale. They are not tens of billions of won, but tens of billions of dollars.”
“We would end up handing over national finances to insurance fraudsters.”
“It would also be difficult to draft the related legislation in time.”
“And the very fact that the government has stepped forward would send a signal that Korea is dangerous. In the end, it would prove that Seiryū was right.”
It was hard enough for a single idea to emerge,
but opinions opposing it poured out from multiple ministries.
The meeting continued for over two hours.
The president canceled his scheduled engagements to continue the meeting, but not a single conclusion changed.
Reinsurers were private companies,
risk assessment was their right,
and while Korea was not a country with problems right now, problems could arise, so they were reassessing.
They had come right back to the same point as when the meeting began.
If anything, the seriousness of the incident had only become clearer.
Their frustration only grew.
Among the people gathered here, there was no one who could overturn this situation.
“Is there really… no way to solve this?”
“We will look for one.”
The president spoke as if he had made up his mind.
“If you think of a solution, ignore procedure and bring it to me immediately. There’s no time for approvals or reports. Understood?”
“Yes.”
“It doesn’t have to be certain. Just bring it to me first.”
“Understood.”
The meeting ended like that.
The problem remained, and there was no time.
In that room, there was not a single person who could solve this problem.
********
“Drink it sparingly. It’s expensive.”
Team Leader Hwang Onyu gulped down the alcohol.
She didn’t even seem to drink much usually,
so why did she drink like this whenever she met me?
“I heard you’re rich. Buy me a drink.”
“If a civil servant lets someone treat them like this, you’ll be violating the Anti-Graft Act.”
“You drank beer at my place too.”
“I had one can of beer, so how much alcohol am I supposed to buy you? I already paid you back for the beer. Let’s stop seeing each other now.”
When I spoke in a tone that was somewhat fed up,
Hwang Onyu exhaled a long stream of cigarette smoke.
“My mind is complicated.”
“What’s complicated? You’re about to be promoted to director-general. Shouldn’t it be nothing but a flower path from here?”
“Something else happened.”
“Work?”
“It’s top secret, but… I’ll tell you because it’s you.”
Every time she talked about something top secret or confidential, she used to hesitate and then get scolded by me, but now she spoke quite readily.
“Okay, tell me. I should at least get my money’s worth for the drinks. I’ll call it even with this.”
Team Leader Hwang Onyu lowered her voice.
Quietly and discreetly, she relayed the situation.
And after hearing what Hwang Onyu had to say, I was utterly flustered.
“Is that for real?”
“It’s chaos. Maritime routes are blocked off, and they’re saying we might starve to death at this rate.”
The reason I was shocked was simple.
I couldn’t understand how an entire nation was just sitting around in a daze over something so trivial.
All those supposedly smart people had gathered, and they couldn’t solve a single problem like this?
“Unbelievable. Just because they couldn’t get insurance? The ships won’t sail?”
“But that’s become reality. From a shipowner’s perspective, it’s hard to operate without insurance. It’s not exactly pocket change.”
“Can’t the government just stand as guarantor?”
“If it were that simple, they would’ve done it already.”
I thought for a moment.
Come to think of it, I had an insurance company.
Taerim Insurance.
It was part of the Taerim Financial Group I’d bought from Yun Jaehong for one dollar.
“Ah, I have Taerim Insurance. They can just take out insurance there. Sign up with Taerim Insurance. I’ll give them a cheap rate.”
I said it as if I were bestowing a tremendous favor, and Hwang Onyu let out a snort of laughter.
“Keke. You’re making me laugh. If that worked, would we be worrying about it? If an accident happens, a company the size of Taerim would be wiped out in one blow. The compensation scale is no joke. That’s why they take out reinsurance. I’m telling you, this whole mess happened because they can’t get that right now.”
“Ah! What the hell? So it was a money problem?”
“That’s right. In the end, insurance is a money problem too.”
If anything, I felt relieved.
“The easiest problem in the world to solve is a money problem. You just need money. Okay. Tell them I’ll guarantee the reinsurance company’s part too. Then there’s no problem. Tell them to launch the ships.”
I spoke confidently, but Hwang Onyu shook her head.
“Who would believe you? Even if you really do have the money and you really will guarantee it, people have to believe that. Only then will they trust it and send out the ships.”
“So they need a trustworthy guarantee?”
“Exactly. People don’t know how much money you have.”
“Can’t I just open up my bank balance?”
“That wouldn’t be enough. People wouldn’t believe that either. That’s why you need an institution with public credibility, or a coalition.”
Hearing Hwang Onyu’s words, a few pieces clicked together in my head.
Come to think of it, I had two insurance companies alone.
Taerim Insurance and Del Rosario Insurance in the Philippines.
And if I spoke to the Chinese side and asked them to just put their name on the coalition, wouldn’t that work?
I’ll put up the money, so just put your name on the coalition.
It felt like they would do it.
If I said I’d give them some Ascend as a service, they’d probably come running with delight.
First, I asked Hwang Onyu.
I explained whether this would be possible.
“How about this?”
After hearing me out, Hwang Onyu was startled.
First, she was surprised by the fact that I had Del Rosario as well as Taerim.
Second, she was surprised again by the hope that this might actually make a solution possible.
Hwang Onyu called here and there, speaking on the phone.
Then, after hanging up, she looked at me and said,
“Let’s go to Cheong Wa Dae tomorrow.”