August was an extremely busy time for me. I had to check the veraison status of each vineyard, and if there were any places with problems, I had to step in and bring them back to normal. On top of that, I had to keep checking on the underground winery construction whenever I could, and I also had to pay attention to Belle Époque, so there was no helping how hectic things were. At least Daniel was doing well at Belle Époque, which was a relief.
I was reviewing the veraison status for each estate when the office door opened and Father came in.
“Do you have a moment?” “Of course. I always have time.”
No matter how busy I was, it wasn’t as if I had no time to talk with Father. He was holding a thick set of documents in his hand, and that piqued my curiosity as well.
“What’s that?”
Father sat across from me and placed the documents he had brought on the desk. I pointed at them with my chin and asked. On the cover was an aerial photograph of a farm somewhere in Southern California.
“I’m thinking of starting a business in the States, and I wanted to hear your opinion.”
For a moment, I thought I had misheard him.
“A business? What about what you’re doing now...?”
“I’m not saying I’m going to shut down Redwood Holdings. But since I’ve been away from the States and staying only in Japan for so long, it feels a little...”
“Lonely?”
“There is that. So I’m thinking of putting a professional manager in place and handling it by going to Japan a few times a year. And I want to try something new in the States.”
I thought that was a good thing. I’d already felt that Mother seemed lonely being by herself, so if Father stayed in the States, things would be much better for her.
“Then what do you want to do?”
“I’m thinking of farming.”
I had expected him to name some business item, so when he brought up the word farming, I found it strange again, but soon understood.
If it were an item he didn’t know much about, both Mother and I would be uneasy. And if I helped him, there was probably no item safer and more capable of producing long-term returns than farming.
“That sounds good. But how did you come to think of farming?”
“A few days ago, I was having a glass of wine with Frederick at Deer Ridge, and the topic came up. He said working beside your family is the real business. I’d already been feeling empty, and when I heard that, I made up my mind.”
“That’s a good idea.”
“So take a look at this.”
He pushed the documents toward me.
“Ventura County...”
The farm in the documents Father handed me was a large avocado farm in Ventura County, Southern California, spanning 300 acres. A thirty-year-old farm with an asking price of twelve million dollars... Judging by the price alone, it wasn’t cheap enough to make one flinch. But when I saw that the item was avocados, a laugh slipped out of me.
“Why? Is it not good?”
When I laughed, Father asked with concern.
“No. For starters, the choice of crop is good.”
I slowly turned the pages one by one and examined the contents. The farm’s location, soil information, harvest statistics, manager information, the seller’s circumstances, and so on...
My mind began moving quickly.
Avocados were a crop that would change America’s food culture in the future. In 2010, recognizing this crop was not a judgment an ordinary businessman could make. I had no idea where Father had found this listing, but in terms of market timing, it was almost a perfect choice.
“Father, where did you see this?”
“I went to a brokerage in Napa that specializes in farmland. A man named Jack Morrison recommended it. At first, I looked at other listings, but none of them appealed to me. At the end, Jack said that if I had sufficient funds, there was one listing he could show me, and this was it.”
“The seller is in his late seventies, and he’s selling because his children won’t take over the farm, right?”
“That’s right.”
“Hmm...”
For now, the selection of the item itself could be called truly outstanding. I didn’t know whether that broker, Jack Morrison, had known and recommended it, but in a way, this might be Father’s luck.
“I’m in favor.”
Maybe because I gave my approval too quickly, Father asked worriedly.
“Really? You really think it’s all right?”
“Yes.”
“Even though it costs twelve million dollars? Honestly, the price is high, isn’t it?”
“It is. It’s definitely not a low price, but a 300-acre avocado farm is certainly an attractive asset.”
“Is that so? Do you think avocados will continue to do well?”
“Did you look into it a bit?”
I asked just in case, and Father nodded firmly.
“Of course. I’ve been looking into it by myself because of this. They say annual avocado consumption per person in the United States was 1.1 pounds in 1990, then rose to 2 pounds in 2000, and this year it’s about 4 pounds. In other words, it quadrupled in twenty years. It did keep growing over the long term.”
It was clear that Father wasn’t trying to start a business without thinking. The fact that he had studied in advance before asking his son for help meant he already had the right attitude.
Even I didn’t know figures that specific.
“Oh, you really looked into it a lot.”
“It’s twelve million dollars. How could I not look into it? But the question is, ‘Will this continue in the future?’ This might be the peak. They say the owner put it up for sale because there’s no one to inherit it, but honestly, that could be a lie.”
“That’s true. You can’t believe all of that.”
“Exactly.”
I grinned and leaned back against the sofa.
“You know why avocado consumption has increased, don’t you?”
“Yes. They said it increased as imports of Mexican avocados began in earnest after NAFTA was signed.”
“That’s right. Once Mexican avocados were allowed to be imported into all fifty U.S. states, supply exploded. At the same time, American food culture is changing. Mexican food has entered mainstream food culture, and with the healthy eating trend, the perception of it as a ‘good fat’ is taking root.”
“......”
“The key here is that even though supply has increased, prices aren’t falling. They’re actually rising. Did you check the wholesale prices?”
“Yes. I asked someone Mr. Frederick introduced me to, and he said California avocado wholesale prices were about one dollar per pound in 2005, but last year they were around one dollar and fifty cents.”
“Oh, then that’s a fifty percent increase in five years, right?”
“That... is true.”
Father nodded with a worried expression, and I continued explaining.
“In my opinion, within the next five years, U.S. avocado consumption per person will rise another 1.5 to 2 times. And within ten years, I think it could more than double...”
Father was startled by the dramatic figures.
“T-to that extent?”
“There are three reasons.”
“What are they?”
“First is avocado toast. It’s slowly starting to appear on the menu at some cafés in California, but soon it will spread to cafés all across America. It becomes a meal item. Once it establishes itself as a meal, consumption explodes.”
I wrote “avocado toast” on the memo pad beside the table.
“Second is the Super Bowl and Geico Day effect. When Super Bowl season begins in America, guacamole consumption increases tremendously. And it’s growing every year. Cereal companies are expanding the market by emphasizing healthy fats in their advertising as well.”
“...”
“Third is that the food culture of the younger generation is changing. Young people in their twenties right now are sensitive to healthy eating. Avocados, in particular, look good visually. They’re pretty, healthy, and hip as a food. Once this generation enters their thirties, the avocado market will truly explode.”
Father stared at the memo pad for a long while before slowly opening his mouth.
“Useok, how do you know so much in detail?”
I shrugged.
“Because I’m interested. I’m interested in all crops.”
When it came to avocados, I couldn’t help but know a lot even without deliberately studying them. Before I regressed, I had constantly seen with my own eyes just how much avocados were consumed.
When you were at a research institute, there were many researchers and students who got by on boxed meals, and even when they weren’t Mexican, they would eat sandwiches and all kinds of salads with avocado in them. Because of that, I naturally became interested, and after asking an undergraduate who studied avocados, I naturally came to understand their destructive potential.
“What do you think will happen to the price?”
“Even if consumption increases, prices won’t fall easily. On the contrary, I think they’ll rise several times higher than they are now.”
According to the undergraduate who had once passionately lectured me, practically spitting as he spoke, about the growth of the avocado market, right now in 2010 was essentially the bottom.
The biggest reason supply couldn’t keep up despite exploding demand was that new farms weren’t being established. California avocado farms were difficult to create because land prices were expensive. Even if imports from Mexico increased, Mexican farms also had their limits, so supply couldn’t catch up with demand.
“Will it really turn out that way?”
“And the fact that it’s a thirty-year-old farm is really important. Avocado trees begin full-scale harvesting after five years, reach stable yields in seven to ten years, and at around thirty years, they’re in their most stable stage. It’s much more advantageous to acquire an already established thirty-year-old farm than to buy a new farm and wait five to ten years. Stable harvests begin immediately every year.”
That was why this farm cost twelve million dollars.
“I know that too because I studied it. That’s why I don’t want to miss it... But still, it’s a lot of money, so I wanted to hear your opinion.”
“From what I can see, it’s a good listing, Father. It’s expensive, but it’s worth that much.”
Woody was silent for a moment, then asked briefly.
“But Useok, even if I started from doing odd jobs at Redwood and farmed grapes here together with you, wouldn’t 300 acres still be too large?”
That was exactly the part I had been about to point out.
“A thirty-year-old farm already has its systems in place. If the manager and the workers stay as they are, operations after the acquisition won’t be difficult. Is there information on the manager in the sale documents?”
Father turned the pages again and opened to one page.
“Carlos Mendoza. Mid-fifties. Twenty years of experience as a farm manager.”
“That’s good. If he’s been the manager for twenty years, he’s practically the owner of the farm. If he stays after the acquisition, this farm will run exactly as it has under the existing system. You only need to act as the president.”
“What if he leaves?”
“Then you need to be a little more cautious. It can take one or two years to bring in a new manager, and during that time, farm operations could become unstable. It’s safest to negotiate the purchase on the condition that the manager stays.”
“Then I’ll have to go and see it myself. I need to meet the seller and the manager before I can decide. Come with me.”
“All right. Please call Jack Morrison and set up an appointment. How about going tomorrow afternoon?”
“Okay.”
The next morning, we loaded our things into a pickup truck and set off together.
It took about six hours from LA northwest to Ventura County, so Father took the wheel and I sat in the passenger seat. In Korea, even the four hours from Seoul to Busan would feel exhausting, but in America, six hours didn’t feel that far.
When we arrived at the farm, an old man in his late seventies was standing in front of a pickup truck at the entrance, waiting for us. With white hair and a sunburned face, he looked like a typical farmer.
It was George Henderson.
“Mr. Woody? I heard from Jack. Thank you for coming.”
“Mr. George, it’s nice to meet you. This is my son, Brian.”
“Brian Choi? The one from Redwood Winery, correct?”
Since he had probably already heard information about us from the broker, Jack Morrison, it wasn’t particularly strange that he knew about me.
The old man’s eyes widened slightly, then he took one step back and let out a short whistle.
“What an honor... Do you know how many bottles of Redwood wine I have in my wine fridge? Five, no less. One of them is Astra Vale.”
“Wow, is that so?”
“I bought two bottles, but I still haven’t been able to bring myself to open one of them. I suppose the day I hand over this farm will be the day I open it. Hahaha! In any case, please come in.”
He gave a hearty laugh and led us into the farm.