As a transmigrator, when asked “Why is there a chance on the Eastern Front in the Great War?” if he were allowed to expose himself and say, “I’m a transmigrator, and I know the Lusha Empire will collapse on its own because the war situation turns against it,” he could answer the question with ease.
Unfortunately, self-exposure was out of the question.
So Lelouch could only focus on the latter half of Marshal Leopold’s question: On what basis do you believe that no matter how well the Western Front is fought, the best it can do is force a draw?
Fortunately, he had a ready-made answer for this question as well, and it could be explained clearly through rational deduction, without revealing any foreknowledge whatsoever.
This inevitably brought up the fact that before transmigrating, Lelouch had played over a hundred games of Hearts of Iron IV.
When that game loaded data, several famous quotes from Second World War figures would appear on the loading screen.
One of them was: “Rundstedt: We should have thought of that back in 1918...”
Lelouch had seen it countless times.
At the time, he had felt the quote came out of nowhere and made no sense at all. But after seeing it so often, curiosity stirred in him, and he had specifically searched up the context online.
Only then did he learn that the quote was Rundstedt’s lament in 1940, after the Demanian army had destroyed Frankia, yet Britannia still stubbornly refused to negotiate peace.
What it meant was that they should have realized as early as 1918 that whether or not Frankia was destroyed did not actually affect the overall situation. Because even if Frankia was destroyed, as long as Britannia still possessed absolute naval superiority, and as long as the Empire could not land on those few islands, they would never surrender or negotiate peace.
But the Demanians of 1918 had not realized this. So after they had completely won the Eastern Front in early 1918, they were still dragged along by several warmongers such as Ludendorff, insisting on fighting the Western Front to the bitter end, fantasizing that “once Frankia is destroyed, we can swallow Frankia, then force Britannia to negotiate peace, and divide up the world.”
In the end, under that self-righteous mentality, they fought on until they burst apart and died.
When Lelouch had first seen this reasoning, he had merely sighed over it casually.
But at this very moment, when Marshal Leopold seriously asked him this question, the argument that should only have been summarized by Rundstedt more than twenty years later immediately surged into Lelouch’s mind.
...
“...Therefore, my view is this: if, at the outbreak of the war, the Empire had only been fighting Lusha and Frankia, then the Empire could still hope to win on both the Eastern and Western Fronts.
But in reality, at the very beginning of the war, the Empire was deceived. The instant those offshore-finance shit-stirrers of Britannia joined the war, the entire nature of the conflict changed.
No matter how well the Empire fights on the continental battlefield, can it possibly rely on its current handful of battleships to annihilate the Royal Navy and land on those islands? And as long as it cannot do that, Britannia will never surrender! Even destroying Frankia will not change that!
The reason His Majesty is so fixated on solving the Frankians first is because he has always fantasized that ‘once Frankia is destroyed, Britannia will sit down at the negotiating table.’ His Majesty is still fantasizing that since the king of Britannia is his cousin, perhaps he can play the family-affection card—but any rational person can see that all of this is impossible.
So the victories on the Western Front are, in truth, illusory. Even if Frankia is destroyed, so what? Can that bit of Frankian land and resources allow the Empire to sustain itself for the long term under a permanent blockade of its maritime trade routes with other continents, without starving its own people, without running short of oil and rubber? It cannot.
Even if we obtain Frankia’s Atlantic ports, the Empire’s maritime trade will still be permanently blockaded by Britannia’s Royal Navy. That fact will not change in the slightest.
Therefore, even if the Empire performs at its best and most perfectly, the most it can hope for is to break the Eastern Front, digest the land, mines, and resources of the east, and obtain a stable internal economic circulation that can be self-sufficient even without fear of an overseas maritime trade blockade.
Then, on the Western Front, without seeking the complete destruction of Frankia, we can directly use Frankia to threaten Britannia and offer them a relatively respectable ceasefire condition that does not demand ceding territory or paying reparations from the Western countries.
At that time, if the Britannians are unwilling to negotiate peace, we can take further military action against Frankia. In that case, perhaps the Frankians themselves will also feel that they have been used by Britannia, that they have become hostages, and thus a rift may appear between them and Britannia. And as long as Britannia is forced into agreeing to peace talks, we should cease fire with Frankia and Britannia as a whole.
For the Empire, when a war has truly lasted several years, what the Empire needs most is to end the state of war, end the state of maritime trade blockade, and then endure hardship while gathering strength again...”
Lelouch spoke at length and with confidence, incorporating a great deal of later analysis on the lessons of the First World War, as well as Rundstedt’s reflections from more than twenty years later in history, along with the reflections of a whole pile of other strategists.
At the same time, he made sure these insights were not overly ahead of their time. He mainly focused on one point: “all continental nations have been screwed over by offshore-balancing financial shit-stirrers,” and repeatedly argued it from multiple angles.
At this moment, of course, he was not fighting alone.
Thus, even Marshal Leopold, who had seen all manner of storms, could not help but waver after hearing such a well-supported and penetrating analysis from him.
“This war... can actually be analyzed from such an angle?! Indeed... that bit of Frankian land, population, and resources is truly not worth mentioning. Whether Frankia is destroyed or not, how much difference does it make in itself?
The fundamental purpose of destroying Frankia is still to force Britannia into peace and break through the permanent maritime trade blockade. If that fundamental goal cannot be achieved, then killing Frankia itself has little meaning...”
Marshal Leopold had actually faintly accepted part of Lelouch’s viewpoint, and could not help murmuring to himself as he summarized and sorted through the ideas he had just heard.
Lelouch also hurriedly continued citing sources and strengthening his argument: “Our great Demanian thinker Max Weber once wrote in The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism that human rationality is divided into instrumental rationality and value rationality.
Just as money is the greatest form of instrumental rationality, a means to realize value rationality. Pursuing money is meant to help a person realize their life goals, but money should not become the life goal itself.
By the same logic, ‘destroying Frankia’ is merely one means by which the Empire may ‘break through the maritime trade blockade.’ It is not the goal itself. But among the Empire’s generals and commanders, how many have lost themselves? For the sake of their own achievements and glory, they have mistaken the tool and means of destroying Frankia for the goal itself. Just like many people lost in money worship mistake the pursuit of money for the goal of life itself.”
These words from Lelouch finally made Marshal Leopold look at him in an entirely new light, and also made him believe most of his argument.
He had not expected that when a top student from the Oreo Royal Academy of Arts came to serve in the army, such sparks of thought would collide.
The sharpness of this young man’s mind was not something those rigidly trained military academy students could compare with.
He was simply like a clear current injected into the stiff Imperial Army, rational and calm.
“Rupprecht valued you, and it seems he was right to do so. I originally thought you merely had impressive tactical vision, but I did not expect your strategic and diplomatic vision to be equally astonishing.” Old Marshal Leopold pondered for a long time, then let out a long sigh and gently patted Lelouch on the shoulder.
“I have one final question—since you say that the best state the Empire can achieve in the future is merely to abandon the attempt to defeat the enemy on the Western Front, reach a respectable ceasefire with Britannia, and exchange that for an end to the maritime trade blockade.
Then do the sinister Britannians not know this? Back in the Napoleonic era, they blockaded Napoleon for many years. Do they not know that once a ceasefire is reached, once the maritime trade blockade is lifted, the Empire will rapidly recover its national strength, and next time it will be even harder to subdue?
If the Britannians know this, then how could they negotiate peace? In any case, no matter how long the fighting goes on, the Empire cannot harm their homeland. They will certainly be willing to maintain a state of hostilities for ten years or eight years.”
Lelouch also found this question rather troublesome, and could not answer it immediately.
The main issue was that some factors involved foreknowledge of history, and he truly could not predict them—
For example, he could not very well reveal one of the major reasons all countries in history became unable to keep fighting: the Ugly Country’s Kansas flu. That flu killed fifty million people among the belligerent nations, more than twice the total number directly killed in four years of war.
However, after organizing his thoughts, he still did his best to sort out the points he could say:
“I also know that forcing the Britannians to abandon their attempt to strangle the Empire will be very difficult. That is why I said, ‘This is the upper limit of what the Empire may possibly achieve in this war.’ As for whether it can truly be achieved, and how it can be achieved, that will still require countless people of noble purpose to devote every effort.
But overall, hope comes from the following aspects: first, it depends on how well the Empire can fight on the Eastern Front, how many resources it can occupy, and whether it can achieve self-sufficiency in resources.
Whether the construction of our own wartime economy has a sufficiently long-term plan, or whether it appears to be draining the pond to catch the fish. The more self-sufficient we can become, the more sustainable economic development we can achieve, and the less afraid we are of trade embargoes and sanctions, the weaker the enemy’s motivation to embargo us at all costs will become.
Second, we must see how effective it will be to threaten the Frankians at that time, using the Frankians as ‘hostages’ to propose an overall plan to force peace.
Third, although the Ugly Country across the ocean has not yet joined the war, the Ugly Country and Britannia share the same language and ancestry. The Ugly Country’s nature is also that of a financial shit-stirring offshore balancer dog. Deep in their bones, they will not give up the opportunity to keep the European continent divided.
If in the future the Ugly Country wants to enter the war, but has not yet completed full mobilization and still needs time to complete its wartime economic transformation, then Britannia has a certain possibility of temporarily ceasing fire with us—at that time, the situation will become an economic recovery race after a ceasefire.
We will take advantage of the lifting of the trade blockade to quickly replenish scarce supplies and rebuild the economy, while Britannia will also count on using that period of time for the Ugly Country to complete its wartime economic transformation, complete sufficient war preparations, and complete emergency training of Ugly Country soldiers.
But if things truly reach that point, I think the eventual temporary ceasefire will certainly be even more unstable. Because once Britannia discovers that the time required for the Ugly Country’s mobilization is nearly sufficient, and that extending the ceasefire any longer benefits their side less than it benefits ours, they will tear up the ceasefire agreement again at any time.
Even if they do not tear up the ceasefire on land, they will find an excuse to announce the resumption of the economic embargo against us at sea. In that case, the situation may enter a special state where ‘the ground war is still under ceasefire, but the sea is not.’ That would likewise be extremely unfavorable to us.
But in short, there will be many unexpected events in the future, and they cannot be exhaustively listed by the human mind. We can only do our utmost and leave the rest to fate. Winning the Eastern Front and digesting the fruits of victory, while forcing an unconditional draw on the Western Front, is already the best of the best possible outcomes. Even this outcome will require countless people to give everything they have. We absolutely must not underestimate the enemy.”
The more Marshal Leopold listened, the more resolute his expression became. In the end, even the arm with which he held his cane had veins bulging and muscles taut.
He walked slowly but firmly to the window and gazed at the ancient, unmelted snow mountains outside.
Only after a long while did he turn around, staring fixedly at Lelouch’s blood-red, deep, wounded left eye, and let out a long sigh:
“I had not originally imagined that the Empire would be in danger to this extent. Perhaps I am old, and have been retired too long. But the Empire will definitely survive this war, because Heaven has sent down so many wise men with clear insight to help the Empire see the future clearly!
At this point, there is no harm in telling you certain things: after the Battle of Ypres on the Western Front is over, His Majesty will invite me to officially return from retirement and lead troops to the southern wing of the Eastern Front, to block the Lushan offensive and save our ally, Oreo.
Because His Majesty believes that the northern sector of the Eastern Front is a direct grudge between the Prosens and the Lushans, and should be handled by the main Prosen forces.
But the southern sector of the Eastern Front is Oreo’s home ground, and we Barians are the closest to Oreo among the Empire’s various states. In particular, my wife is an Oreo princess. His Majesty believes that sending us Barians there will make us work harder.
But right now, the two army groups of the four southern Demanian states are each tied down on the northern and southern sides of the Ypres Salient. It will be very difficult for them to extricate themselves before the Battle of Ypres is finished.
So you must fight well. The better you fight at Ypres, the more manpower can be freed after the battle ends, and the more men we can transfer to the Eastern Front.
At that time, as commander-in-chief of the southern wing of the Eastern Front, I will give you more opportunities to earn merit. Of course, by the time the Battle of Ypres ends, you will no longer be merely a company commander. I do not want you to become negligent just because you think ‘no matter how well the Western Front is fought, it is useless.’”
Lelouch hurriedly saluted and solemnly declared: “Thank you for your appreciation, Marshal. I will absolutely not slack off. Moreover, I believe that the fact the Western Front as a whole cannot achieve total victory does not mean efforts on the Western Front are meaningless.
Especially in the Battle of Ypres, we are fighting the Britannian army, not the Frankian army. Then we must do our utmost and beat them until it hurts! Because whether the Western Front can ultimately be dragged into a draw in the future does not depend on how much cumulative damage we inflict on the Frankian army, but on how much cumulative damage we inflict on Britannia!
Only by killing Britannians more ruthlessly can there be greater hope of ending the war. It is rare for the Western Front to have a battlefield where we can strike the Britannians hard, so we absolutely cannot let it go. And even if we go to the Eastern Front in the future, our enemies may not necessarily only be the Lushans. We can likewise do our utmost, and on every battlefield where the opportunity can be found, seize every chance to strike the Britannians hard.
For example, the Britannians have always been friendly with Greece and hostile toward our ally Tu’ao. The Britannians have naval superiority. They may very likely act as shit-stirrers and create chaos across the vast battlefields from Greece to the Middle East, and they may also try to win over the Itardians.
So in the future, on the Eastern Front, the Empire may very likely still have many opportunities to inflict harm upon Britannia—I have a wish. If possible, I hope that whenever the Empire has an opportunity to engage the Britannian army, I can be transferred to that battlefield. I wonder whether, in the future, the Marshal can provide as much convenience as possible within your authority.
I have no other meaning. I simply feel that professional matters should be handled by professionals. Since joining the army, the ones I have mainly faced have been the Britannians and their puppet lackeys. I have never dealt with other great powers. Against Frankia and Lusha, I may not be professional.”
Marshal Leopold did not oppose this strange request, though he merely passed over it noncommittally.
Lelouch did not mind either. In any case, this was just casual conversation. He was merely expressing his aspirations and establishing his persona.
From now on, perhaps the upper ranks of the Barian royal family would regard him as a “Britannian-killing expert,” and in the future, whenever they encountered such matters, they would think of him.
Ideally, if the Britannian army was on the Western Front, he would be on the Western Front killing Britannians.
If the Britannian army went to the Eastern Front, he would be on the Eastern Front killing Britannians.
If the Britannian army went to the Southern Front, he would be on the Southern Front killing Britannians.
The Western, Eastern, and Southern Fronts were merely changes in business-trip location. The job content remained unchanged.
This feeling was like a group fight. If one person was surrounded and beaten by a crowd, and was doomed to be unable to defeat everyone, then he had to fix his eyes on one of them and beat him half to death. Only then was there a chance to break the situation.
If he could just happen to target that utterly immoral shit-stirrer hiding in the back and shouting, “Brothers, attack together! Why talk martial honor with these people of the Demonic Cult!” or “Brothers, attack together! Perfected Zhang can’t possibly kill us all before his true qi runs out,” then the effect would be the best.
...
After this sincere, lengthy conversation, the lonely old marshal unknowingly came to believe that this young man was worth properly guiding as a friend despite their age difference.
In the end, neither of them knew how long they had chatted, until the steward of Neuschwanstein Castle braced himself and came in to request instructions: “Your Highness Marshal, Duke Rupprecht has returned, and the banquet is fully prepared...”
Only then did Marshal Leopold rein in his desire to keep talking, and with a wave of his hand, signaled for Lelouch to follow.
Lelouch did not even have time to change into a dress uniform, so he could only go downstairs directly in the camouflage uniform he had just worn for the marshal’s inspection, looking rather like an adjutant.
Duke Rupprecht, his family, as well as a small number of adjutants and other guests, were already in the banquet hall.
Seeing that Lelouch had become so familiar with his uncle so quickly, the duke was also somewhat surprised.
After Lelouch saluted, the duke found an opportunity to ask him in a low voice: “Uncle has always been very strict. He does not easily show young people a pleasant expression. What exactly did you say to him?”
Lelouch then briefly selected some content suitable to mention and said that the two of them had merely chatted about strategic prospects such as whether the Eastern or Western Front was more important. The old marshal appreciated his strategic vision, that was all.
After hearing this, the duke could not help feeling that this young man had gained a few extra layers of mystery.
Originally, he had only known that Lelouch was extremely skilled in tactical schemes, and also had unique insights into the coordination between armaments and tactics.
Unexpectedly, even at the level of grand strategy and high diplomacy, he could also possess quite remarkable insights—was this young man truly a genius born with knowledge? Could he really see through the future, see through revelation?
Because the steel helmet, camouflage uniform, and “work-safety boots” had already been inspected by the old marshal, the duke was too lazy to carefully check the details again. He trusted his uncle’s experience and judgment.
So the duke merely looked them over briefly, then instructed the steward to take Lelouch next door to change into formalwear before coming out to dine.
At the banquet, naturally, there were no details worth elaborating on. In a word, seeing that both the old marshal and the duke attached such importance to Lelouch, the others naturally put away any thoughts of looking down on him and treated him with great courtesy.
After the meal, the duke explained some work matters to Lelouch, telling him that after completing the inspection and acceptance work over the next two days, he should fly back to the Western Front, gather the soldiers, intensify their training in the new tactics, and then enter the Battle of Ypres.