# Chapter 7: A Player in the Game (4.9k)
Yu Xing did not immediately heed Liu Wanying's advice.
He first cleared the dishes and bowls from the table, then soothed his shifu's wife's slightly unsettled mood, then took a milk candy from his pocket to give his junior sister, and only finally poured two cups of tea.
"Ying-jie, have some tea." Yu Xing politely handed the teacup to Liu Wanying.
"This tea doesn't come free." Liu Wanying wasn't one for pleasantries, saying with a smile, "Yu Xing, you don't strike me as someone acting on a whim, but you've studied medicine all these years—isn't it a pity to suddenly change course?"
Seeing that his shifu's wife had taken his junior sister to the bedroom for a nap, Yu Xing gave a slight shake of his head, took a sip of tea, and sighed, "I have my reasons. Studying medicine couldn't save... myself."
He didn't want to elaborate on that topic. Setting down his teacup, he looked up and gazed at Liu Wanying, asking, "Ying-jie, honestly speaking, what do you think our project needs to watch out for?"
"Yu Xing, I just went over what you want to do, and you mentioned staying away from insurance marketing—though this kind of wager does carry a hint of insurance, doesn't it?" Liu Wanying wasn't interested in discussing whether his reasons were bitter or not.
Her mind had been working the whole time, and she laid out hypotheticals at a quick pace: "If we treat this as insurance, one order at 500 yuan means the premium is 500. Let's say the expense ratio at pricing is 20%, so the net premium comes to roughly... hmm, 417."
"The product redemption is 999 roses, which we treat as the insured amount—call it 3,000 yuan."
"Expense ratio at pricing, 20%. The pricing interest rate commonly used in the industry is 3.5%."
Liu Wanying asked thoughtfully, "Hmm, if it's insurance, it'd be best to add a termination period. Three years to how many years? What do you think—by how much does a couple's marriage probability decrease each passing year?"
"Three to ten years, say. During that period, any couple who marries can redeem." Yu Xing gave a figure, "Generally the longer it takes, the harder marriage becomes. Let's say the probability of marrying in year four is 80% of year three, and so on after that."
"If we calculate it that way, then the third-year marriage probability in your product model..." Liu Wanying casually pulled out her niece's homework notebook, jotted down some formulas, and tried to figure out the third-year marriage probability under this model.
—Suppose the third-year marriage probability is k, year four is k*0.8, year five is k*0.8², year ten is k*0.8⁷
—Net premium = insured amount × (third-year marriage probability/(1+pricing interest rate)³ + fourth-year marriage probability/(1+pricing interest rate)⁴ + ... + tenth-year marriage probability/(1+pricing interest rate)¹⁰)
—417 = 3000 * (K/1.035³ + K*0.8/1.035⁴ + ... + k*0.8⁷/1.035¹⁰)
—Hmm, we can use the geometric series sum formula: first term is K/1.035³, common ratio is 0.8, number of terms is 8
—From that we can solve: K ≈ 3.7%
Yu Xing watched as Liu Wanying scribbled swiftly on the elementary school notebook, then pulled out a calculator and worked through the numbers in a few quick strokes before arriving at her answer.
He stared blankly at the calculation process, asking sincerely, "Ying-jie, jie, what on earth do you do for a living?"
"M&A consulting. Crunching these numbers is rather fun, actually." Liu Wanying mimicked his accent with a smile, "If we really calculate it as an insurance product, your figures set the customer's maximum probability of redemption at 3.7% as the estimate. Tsk tsk, it really does feel like an actuary has been working behind the scenes. Looks quite reasonable."
Yu Xing found it hard not to feel respect for a clever person.
Liu Wanying set down her pen, the smile fading from her face as she spoke seriously, "I can see you've considered many angles. These business figures also look like something you've deliberated carefully. Mm, you're a smart person, and you're already keeping an eye on the red lines—that's genuinely rare."
"But I've met and heard of plenty of capable people running companies—direct sales, pyramid schemes, money pools, Ponzi schemes, things like that. Do you think those brilliant people don't understand the risks of crossing red lines? Do they not take precautions?"
"Do you think when they use these methods they've never told themselves it's just to inject some vitality? Just something temporary?"
"There are far too many clever people in this world!"
"When real difficulties come—colleagues urging, friends around them advising, the pyramid scheme and money pool people swearing up and down with hands on their chests—those clever people have no choice but to use them, have no choice but to keep trying again and again with a gambler's hope, and in the end they sink deep into the mire."
"So, as the old saying goes—cleverness can be the author of one's own misfortune!"
Liu Wanying shook her head with a sigh, "Sometimes, success really does require a bit of luck."
She turned her head again to look at this college boy, Yu Xing, only to find his face grim as iron, without the slightest hesitation in his eyes.
Yu Xing had noticed Liu Wanying's subtle movement, and he praised her slowly, "Ying-jie truly sees things with clarity."
"That's just the advantage of an onlooker." Liu Wanying suppressed a small inner surprise and resumed her smiling expression, "Someone inside the game thinks and feels differently—why people so easily stumble their way straight into a jail cell."
"Is this Ying-jie's first piece of advice for me?" Yu Xing took this as an extended version of the earlier comment about 'straying a step wrong.'
"No, that was just my musing." Liu Wanying's voice turned somewhat cool, "My first piece of advice is—fine at the start, but if you really get this running, leave the city of Jinling as early as possible."
Yu Xing was taken aback. This was something he'd never considered.
Liu Wanying leisurely explained, "Jinling, after all—ancient capital of six dynasties. This city... it's not that it's bad, but sometimes when you stroll through the old districts, there are rather a lot of shops that buy back cigarettes and liquor."
The words carried considerable meaning.
Yu Xing understood almost instantly—Jinling was a city steeped in history, and at certain moments, its style of doing things was equally historical.
"I assume if you really do this, you won't be hoping to pull in every potential customer you can reach, right? This business is destined to only try converting that small portion of customers who are interested in it." Liu Wanying put it another way, "In that case, like the business itself—why shouldn't your company also find a city more receptive to new things?"
She cautioned, "Otherwise, what was originally nothing could become something the moment a competitor pokes some department or other. Different places have different styles of doing things and different levels of acceptance."
The world of jianghu is treacherous—to guard, or not to guard?
Yu Xing instantly thought of many scenarios. He sincerely poured another cup of tea, rose, and offered it in salute, "Ying-jie, that advice is practical."
Liu Wanying took a small sip of tea with a beaming smile, no need for suspense: "As for the second piece of advice—you could register a company in Xiangjiang. I'm not saying this just because I work there; based on objective circumstances, it might prove useful if you run into unexpected situations."
Yu Xing found it hard not to offer a second cup of tea in respect, teasing a bit more this time: "Ying-jie, once I'm rich, I'll buy out all your lipsticks!"
Liu Wanying's red lips curved in a half-smile, "Then I look forward to you getting rich soon, and marching up to the counter, waving your hand grandly at the salesgirl—'everything in this case, I'll take.'"
Seeing that she truly had insight, and following the principle of extracting as much substance as he could, Yu Xing attentively poured a third cup of tea: "Ying-jie, for that day to come sooner, please offer me more guidance."
"I don't have anything more to offer. I'm just an armchair strategist. Whether it can actually be done, what problems arise in execution—all of that depends on you." Liu Wanying gave a slight shake of her head, but after brief deliberation, went on, "This project is fairly novel. Your customer base isn't people you need to labor to persuade—they're people willing to try new things."
"On the wedding day, 999 roses arranged at the venue—just imagining it is romantic. The impulse you're selling is precisely that 'just imagining it is romantic.'"
"It's like when people travel—the happiest moment isn't actually being out there; it's the planning time before the trip."
"For lovers getting married—is a diamond ring worth it? It depreciates the moment you get it."
"Are wedding photos a must? Most of them end up stuffed under the bed."
"Are 999 roses arranged at the venue necessary?"
Liu Wanying said with a radiant smile, "Heh, what you're buying is the feeling of that moment. Selling you that feeling for 500 yuan—expensive?"
Yu Xing gave a thumbs up. She'd nailed it.
"This project has a certain room for imagination, but it's only 'a certain' room." Liu Wanying smoothed back her hair, her voice turning flat, her eyes growing sharp, "If you make this a company's core business, I believe you'll quickly hit the bottleneck we discussed earlier—the problem of investment versus growth. But if it serves as the second or third growth curve of a company that already has a core business, then both the costs and the prospects are different."
Yu Xing looked at Liu Wanying hesitantly.
Liu Wanying winked at him.
"Ying-jie's suggestion is... if we can build it to scale, we could sell it to..." Yu Xing was working out her meaning, and considering the current market, continued, "sell it to Jiayuan.com, Baihe Network, companies like that?"
Jiayuan.com and Baihe Network were both dating websites, several years established by now, with respectable scale—matchmaking was their core business.
"Right, and there's also Zhenai Network. Those three are the market's top players." Liu Wanying added one more company, smiling, "The dating and marriage market is certainly far stronger than this narrow little niche of yours, but once their core business growth slows, they'll inevitably need to open new growth points, and naturally they'll work the upstream and downstream of the matchmaking industry."
She explained, unhurried: "As I just said, for you to do this alone is doubling the effort for half the result. But for them, with a core business already in place, with staff and teams ready-made, it's half the effort for double the result."
Yu Xing suddenly recalled the conversation at the dinner table—"easy to replicate, no barrier to entry." Had that been part of what she was considering all along?
He nodded slowly. He wasn't averse—and didn't feel he was in any position to be averse—to selling the company, but he said slowly, "We'd still have to guard against their competition. Compared to us, they'd obviously be more reassuring to customers."
Roses take time to redeem—would a brand-new company still exist three years from now?
The odds that Jiayuan.com, Baihe Network, and Zhenai Network would still be standing three years from now were obviously much greater.
Moreover, all the pros and cons of this project they'd just discussed, applied to those three companies, would have the pros magnified and the cons diminished.
Yu Xing thought of the potential rivals and buyers that might appear, yet his thoughts began to drift further afield. If it could be sold, could the scope be broadened? Tencent had QQ Show and virtual couples—with its massive traffic, couldn't it lower the unit price while increasing revenue...
What about Alibaba? Would it be interested in this kind of niche social product?
Even a mosquito is still meat, right?
NetEase seemed to have dabbled in matchmaking business before—not surprising, when the boss himself went off to raise pigs.
Yu Xing's imagination ran wild for a time; it was hard not to think of those famous internet companies whose tentacles, visible and hidden, had spread across every industry years later.
"What, can't bear to let it go?" Seeing no response from the man before her, Liu Wanying offered a natural judgment, then added sincerely, "Cashing out when things are good is always better than running away in the end. For ordinary people like us, it's not like we need to earn hundreds of millions. Getting a project done well is already a success—enough for you to spend slowly."
Yu Xing felt the sincerity of her counsel and was quite grateful, but said, "No, Ying-jie, I was just thinking—if that's the goal we set, we might need to step up the hype. Both our methods and our targets would need adjusting."
"Well, that's for you, the founder, to figure out. And worst case, you can always go back to being a doctor. In any case..." Liu Wanying had already said a great deal on a first meeting—though partly out of regard for her elder brother, part of it was also the thrill of seeing interesting prey.
Not all founders are logically clear and thorough in their thinking—though that doesn't mean founders of other styles can't succeed—but talking with the former type is always more pleasant.
Liu Wanying said, "Don't get into trouble, Student Yu."
Yu Xing smiled helplessly, "I really wasn't planning on running off."
"Mm-hm, I believe you. Then..." Liu Wanying said readily, "good luck, Boss Yu."
Hearing those two successive forms of address, Yu Xing felt a stirring in his heart. He still made his presumptuous request: "Ying-jie, I only mentioned this today and you've already analyzed so much—it's incredible. Would you be willing to come do this with us? Decision-making power, equity—whatever you say."
Liu Wanying wasn't surprised to hear such an invitation, declining with a smile, "No. I'm not interested in this kind of project. Besides, even if you do make it work, the value of that equity... would it be more than my salary?"
She shrugged, a mischievous smile on her face.
Clearly, Liu Wanying's job paid quite well.
Yu Xing gave an "mm" and quickly pressed on, "Then, Ying-jie, since your salary is so high, could you lend me some money? I'm still a bit short for registering the company."
Liu Wanying: "..."
Wasn't THIS the real presumptuous request?
Was that invitation just cover for asking to borrow money?
Wait...
She said exasperatedly, "Money to register a company? You haven't even registered it yet? How much does registering a company cost?"
"Still thirty thousand short." Yu Xing met Liu Wanying's gaze, "Twenty-five thousand would work too."
Seeing that this shi-gu wasn't speaking, he quickly revised the loan: "Twenty thousand—or, eighteen thousand... ten thousand..."
"This was always a business of trying to catch a fish without bait—well, this is... this is rather fitting." Liu Wanying offered as positive an assessment as she could manage, then refused, "No loan."
Yu Xing wasn't angry, just said with some regret, "Ying-jie, you're missing out on a fine return. It's not much anyway—we could count it as an investment. Really, Ying-jie."
"No, no loan." Liu Wanying reaffirmed her decision, then smiled, "I'm not interested in investing in you, but I could become one of your first customers."
Yu Xing immediately asked enthusiastically, "Ying-jie, investing in a wedding is absolutely worthwhile. For others it's three years, but Ying-jie, after one year, you can come redeem with me anytime—and the 999 roses will be upgraded to 1,001."
"I gave you sincere advice, so you're throwing in two extra roses?" Liu Wanying shot a glance at the deliberately theatrical college boy.
"That's exactly why it's a good deal—only two roses added." Yu Xing said earnestly, "But don't underestimate these two—one in a thousand, a lucky omen."
"I'm now leaning toward believing you'll succeed." Liu Wanying was caught between laughing and crying, "I won't invest in myself, but let me place an order for a friend of mine. Same terms as you just said—marries after one year, redeem 1,001 roses anytime."
Yu Xing agreed without hesitation, "You got it! Ying-jie, how many orders?"
Liu Wanying said breezily, "Just 20 orders. Be ready for someone to come redeem a year from now."
Yu Xing pulled out his pen and was about to handwrite a contract when he suddenly realized the total of these 20 orders was exactly the last figure he'd quoted for the loan—ten thousand yuan on the nose.
"Worried you can't pay out?" Liu Wanying's eyes gleamed with amusement, "I'm a bit curious myself—whether someone who studied medicine for years and suddenly decided to start a business can actually deliver the goods in the end."
Yu Xing nodded slightly and, without further ceremony, wrote out a contract in duplicate on his junior sister's elementary school homework notebook—but marked it as 21 orders.
Liu Wanying took the paper with black ink on white, and saw the number on it.
Yu Xing said solemnly, "Ying-jie, grand opening special—count the extra one as my gift."
Liu Wanying signed both copies of the contract, then laughingly slipped her copy back into her niece's homework notebook.
"Ying-jie, I have one more request." Yu Xing had no intention of giving anything away for free.
Liu Wanying couldn't help rolling her eyes.
Yu Xing seemed not to have seen the expression, pleading, "Ying-jie, you work in Xiangjiang—do you have any friends who could help register a company? We'll deduct the fee from what you paid for the order, and transfer the rest to my card."
Liu Wanying: "..."
She stared at the man before her for a full ten seconds, then gave a thumbs up: "Fine. You're the real deal!"
Before Yu Xing could respond, he heard the study door open and slam shut, then saw his teacher Liu Jingrong storm out, heading straight for the front door.
Liu Jingrong shot a glare at his eldest disciple, said nothing, and left without a word.
Yu Xing was rather baffled, unsure whether his junior brother had succeeded or failed, until he saw a teary-eyed Zhong Zhiling slowly shuffling out of the study.
"Xing-ge, the teacher wants to call my mom..." Zhong Zhiling's tears had been hard to control these past two days. After laying his cards on the table with the teacher and being threatened with a call to his parents, his heart was panicked and afraid.
Liu Wanying watched this scene and turned to ask, "Can I cancel that batch of orders now?"
Yu Xing declared resoundingly, "In black and white, once the pen falls, there's no taking it back!"
But the junior brother couldn't keep going on like this either...
The thirty-day countdown had already begun, and he still had to work hard...
Yu Xing's mind spun, and he thought of an idea that might prove remarkably fitting.