Napoleon, the master strategist, once said:
When your enemy is making a mistake, never interrupt him.
“It wasn’t winter after all. It’s clearly spring.”
The officials from China’s Ministry of Commerce gathered in one place were already struggling to keep the corners of their mouths from twitching upward.
As expected, in diplomacy, it was easier to score points when your rival did poorly than when you did well.
With America’s continued tariff threats, the West had begun to turn its back. India, which had even suffered casualties during its border dispute with China, had begun reaching out to China as well, and Russia, whose dependence on China had grown due to the war in Ukraine, was now practically no different from an autonomous region.
Ironically, all of these relationships had been sworn enemies until barely a year ago.
They were miracles that could never have happened if not for the United States.
“Director Chen. I heard Korea raised its protocol level for this Victory Day as well?”
When the Minister of Commerce turned his head, Director Chen answered with a smile.
“Yes. Originally, they said they would send the Speaker of the National Assembly to our side, but they changed it to the prime ministerial level. Well, if you look only at the simple order of protocol, the rank is lower, but in Korea, the prime minister is someone closer to the president.”
“What meaning do you see in that?”
“Sending the number two figure in the executive branch naturally reflects the Korean president’s intentions, does it not? From what I have gathered through various channels, that man seems to want an improvement in relations with us. Most likely, there will be ordinary trade-related demands.”
The Victory Day event held yesterday had concluded successfully.
The leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia warmly displayed their friendship, and by discussing topics such as clones and eternal life, they hinted at the next-generation cash cow for the bio industry.
Among all that, the attendance of a Korean prime ministerial-level figure could be called a tremendous achievement.
Geopolitically, the country currently containing China on the very front line is Korea. It would not be an exaggeration to say that every American fighter jet floating over Osan Air Base is aimed at China, and the relationship between that America and Korea had grown extremely distant.
“Trade demands of us, hm. Hahaha. How times have changed. Come to think of it, I hear the Korean president’s remarks have grown sharper lately?”
“Yes, that is correct. Recently, for the first time, talk of withdrawing U.S. Forces Korea came from the Korean president’s mouth. Of course, it was not direct. It was an announcement that they could maintain autonomous national defense even without foreign troops, but the majority view is that all of it was aimed at the United States.”
“Truly remarkable. Splendid, and courageous words, aren’t they?”
When the Minister of Commerce looked satisfied, Director Chen gradually raised the intensity of his remarks.
“However, Minister. We must not be completely taken in by Korea’s sweet lip service. If those words are sincere, then they should first show us a sincere attitude.”
“A sincere attitude?”
“Yes. Well, realistically speaking, the withdrawal of U.S. Forces Korea would be difficult, but at the very least, they should revoke the THAAD deployment for it to be sincere, should they not? Personally, I am deeply disappointed in the Korean president. That man was clearly opposed to THAAD and Japan when he was in the opposition party, but after taking power, he changed completely.”
With that as the opening, the hardliners rose up.
“That is correct, Minister. Korea must show sincerity first!”
“Honestly, if they only get rid of THAAD, then that trifling Hallyu ban can be lifted as early as tomorrow.”
“Not only trade officials but even NPS representatives are scheduled to attend tomorrow’s meeting. It seems a fairly large sum of money will be discussed. Shall we make a demand?”
Due to America’s recent absurd behavior, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s confidence had been greatly bolstered. High-level talks had resumed with Britain, and they had even reconciled with India. In the current atmosphere, there seemed to be nothing they could not do.
Amid the hardliners’ clamor, Director Chen continued as if driving in the final nail.
“If you permit me, Minister, please send me to tomorrow’s meeting! With America having turned its back anyway, we hold the initiative in this meeting. I will convey our position very firmly and make Korea submit!”
But just as the atmosphere of the meeting was beginning to tilt, Director Wang, who was seated on the opposite side, opened his mouth.
“Minister. Is there any reason to kick away a pumpkin that has rolled right into our laps?”
Unlike the hardliners, most of whom came from the military, Director Wang was the only one from a bureaucratic background.
In other words.
“Look here, Director Wang. Why are you going off on a tangent again?”
It meant he was said to have no power either inside or outside the organization.
When Director Wang voiced an opposing opinion, Director Chen, who had always been his bitter enemy, glared at him.
“Who is the pumpkin, and who is kicking it away? Anyone can see that we hold the initiative in tomorrow’s trade meeting! What is wrong with conveying our demands as much as our position allows?”
“By what measure?”
“What?”
“We resumed high-level talks with Britain, but what exactly did we gain? They say our relations with Europe have improved, but in reality, they imposed large-scale steel tariffs aimed at us. By what measure are we in the superior position?”
“That is…”
“Speaking as a bureaucrat, China’s economy is still in crisis. Taiwan, whose per capita GDP is more than three times ours, has an economic growth rate in the five-percent range, while ours has plunged into the four-percent range. Every foreign media outlet except those in China is saying the same thing: that we have entered the middle-income trap.”
Real estate is a leading indicator of the economy. When land prices rise, the stock market and GDP grow without exception. That is because the construction industry is an enormous business for stimulating domestic demand.
Of course, it does not always hold true. Sometimes real estate rises because the value of currency, of money, has fallen to garbage. It is easy to understand if one thinks back to when the stock market and land prices skyrocketed during COVID for no particular reason. Naturally, when prices rise as a bubble like that, the side effects are severe.
Unfortunately, China was currently closer to the latter case.
Countless unsold homes were dragging down the Chinese economy, and China’s domestic real estate market had been declining for forty-one consecutive months. In terms of scale alone, it was a situation far worse than subprime, and yet somehow, China was currently maintaining positive growth.
“The only reason we are holding on at all is thanks to manufacturing. If we do not face this reality, we will let this opportunity, one that may come only once in a hundred years, slip away in vain!”
Director Wang, who rarely showed his emotions, raised his voice.
The Minister of Commerce turned his head toward him.
“Director Wang. So what is your opinion?”
“We must face reality coldly. The reason Korea is reaching out to us now is because they are dissatisfied with America’s attitude. But if we, too, pressure Korea over an issue completely unrelated to trade, then in the end, they will withdraw that hand as well.”
“Even so, as Director Chen said, do we not hold the initiative?”
“I do not think so. The Western countries coming to us now, begging and pleading? If America’s stance changes, they will throw us away like worn-out shoes and run back to America. To put it bluntly, our relationship with Russia is currently near its peak, but if Russia’s war ends, will they still be this friendly then?”
All the Ministry of Commerce officials fell silent.
On the surface, the relationship between China and Russia had become almost brotherly, but the internal circumstances were different. North Korea and Russia had suddenly grown close, and China’s influence over North Korea was no longer what it once was.
The same awkward atmosphere extended to every country. They seemed like allies, but when you dug deeper, they were enemies. If America’s stance changed, it was a relationship like an affair that could fall apart at any time.
“Minister, this is absurd! Director Wang is far too underestimating China’s potential!”
“That is correct! Judging by America’s state, it does not seem like it will ever change for the rest of our lives, so why should we watch our step?”
“This is, rather, an opportunity. We must tell Korea to show sincerity!”
As the hardliners charged in again, the Minister of Commerce calmly put a cigarette in his mouth. It was the signal that the meeting was over, meaning there was to be no more arguing back and forth.
He exhaled a long stream of smoke and said,
“Director Wang will go to tomorrow’s trade meeting.”
*
D-1, one day before negotiations with China.
Wedged among officials from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, I fiercely coordinated the agenda items to be brought up tomorrow.
Having personal ties with someone in power was reassuring in many ways. Though I was far lacking in both experience and rank, thanks to Lee Chanho’s enthusiastic recommendation, I was able to have a fairly large say among them.
When the agenda coordination was finished, Director Kim of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy carefully approached me.
“Team Leader Lee… are you sure this is right?”
“Is there something that bothers you?”
“Well, nothing bothers me personally. It doesn’t differ much from the current administration’s stance, and there is a lot for us to gain. But the China I know would never agree to negotiations like this. I’m worried we may be too full of hope.”
Director Kim, known within the ministry as a China hand, looked as if he had chewed on shit.
“The ones I’ve dealt with always bring up things unrelated to trade when discussing trade. The atmosphere this time is extremely ominous as well.”
“Did something happen?”
“I heard that both inside and outside China, they intend to take issue with THAAD again this time. It definitely won’t be just a rumor. Those bastards have always tied trade to security. This time won’t be any different.”
I smiled bitterly.
“Then we’ll have to break off the talks.”
“…What? No, we should sort out what we can concede.”
“I have no intention of withdrawing our demands just because they find a few things to nitpick.”
“Team Leader Lee, investment may flow only according to the logic of money, but trade does not… Each side’s right to speak can only be proportional to national power. Just like how we can’t impose retaliatory tariffs on America.”
“China isn’t exactly in a position to be picky, either.”
“What does that mean?”
“They say they’re on a path of reconciliation with Europe, but if you look at the inside story, they’re actually being contained even more. China’s internal indicators are grim as well. In my opinion, China won’t be able to make unreasonable demands this time.”
After thinking for a while, Director Kim patted my shoulder.
“Fine. Then let’s try pushing it through. Well, since the Prime Minister specifically requested it, you handle the sensitive agenda items yourself.”
“Thank you.”
“But if they start spouting nonsense again, let’s break off the talks immediately.”
“Yes, sir.”
I finished the coordination without any trouble and returned to my lodging.
After showering and turning on the TV, tremendous news was once again flowing in from the other side of the globe.
“I can no longer tolerate this. I will impose an additional one hundred percent tariff on China!”
Out of habit, I opened the stock market.
Was this Donald’s third round of tariffs on China, or his fourth…? After the last crash, I thought the Nasdaq had built up a tolerance, but apparently not.
The Nasdaq ended the session with a plunge in the four-percent range.
“…”
I smiled bitterly.
In truth, now is not the time for us to cooperate with China. Korea and China are countries whose rice bowls overlap.
America is a country we supply goods to, so their growth leads to our growth, but China is a country that becomes a threat to us the more it grows.
So right now, America needs to make a difficult decision.
If its true goal is to contain China, then like Obama’s strategy of “embracing India,” it should relocate every American production base in China, force China into labor-cost competition, and kill its manufacturing industry.
Of course, it wouldn’t be as easy as it sounds. Fence-sitting India will always walk the tightrope between the U.S. and China while looking after its own interests. But the price of hating that and pouring tariffs on them was… astonishingly, a closer relationship between China and India.
“Make America Great Again!”
What a shame.
If America took the lead in containing China, then we, whose rice bowl overlaps with China’s, could enthusiastically join in the containment as well… but history does not flow as one wishes.
Well, what can be done? As descendants of the people of Silla, we have no choice but to be good at walking the tightrope.