[Breaking News — KOSPI Closes in the 3,600 Range!]
[An Untimely Santa Rally! Has the Korean Stock Market Finally Overcome the Korea Discount?]
[Kim Visits Yeouido: “We’re Still Far Off. Let’s Race Toward the KOSPI 5,000 Era”]
[Global Ratings Firms Rush to Revise Hoam Electronics’ Target Price]
[WSJ: “The Semiconductor Supercycle Has Arrived! Next Year’s Market Will See Striking Advances by TSMC, Nvidi, Hoam Electronics, and Others”]
With the bond crisis brought to a close, warm winds began blowing through the KOSPI once again. Bolstered by the National Pension Service’s on-market purchases, it had finally opened the era of 3,600.
The stock market’s relentless climb was more than enough to slaughter the inverse-trading traitors to the nation.
At long last, it was the age of semiconductors.
Every global ratings agency, with one voice, predicted that AI would become the next core industry. Accordingly, demand for semiconductors responsible for computation could only rise as well... Looking at things like this, it didn’t seem like an exaggeration to say a nation’s fate rested in the hands of a few geniuses.
Roughly thirty years ago, during the IMF crisis, we may have sold off rice seeds, but we refused to sell semiconductors—and thanks to that, another fixed deposit had come to maturity, bringing tremendous benefits.
Then would Pasco, having succeeded in hydrogen steelmaking, be responsible for our next thirty years of sustenance?
[Pay Attention to the Western Era! The People Who Sold Jeans Made More Than the People Who Went Digging for Gold!]
[Big Tech Wavers Again... Is AI Really Overheated?]
Meanwhile, Wall Street was once again bickering over a question with no correct answer.
It was because AI-related stocks, including Nvidi, had soared even more wildly than during the dot-com bubble.
Over the past five years, every stock related to AI had skyrocketed like cryptocurrency, and as a result, concerns about a bubble were no small matter.
Considering that Microsoft and Amazon, which were thriving now, had each plunged 90% during the dot-com era, these opinions were not something one could simply dismiss.
“Sejun, what’s that?”
While I was in the middle of watching the news, Meilin asked me.
“The Swedish Academy.”
“Academy?”
“Ah, I mean the Royal Academy. Those committee members select the Nobel Prize winners every year. On the international stage, it’s the most influential academic institution.”
“Aha. But why have you been watching that boring news for two hours? Is there a Nobel Prize in investing too?”
“Haha...”
Leaving behind Meilin, who kept teasing me at every opportunity, I looked at the clock.
There were about ten minutes left now. This year’s Nobel Committee, due to scheduling issues, was announcing the prizes in physics and chemistry at the same time, and soon, news that would shock the world was about to break.
“Instead of this, let’s just go play at the Forbidden City. They’re holding the biggest drone show in history today.”
“Wasn’t last year’s the biggest in history too...?”
“They say this one’s an even bigger, bigger drone show.”
I smiled bitterly.
China’s drone stockpile was setting new records every year... Were they really planning to set their sights on Taiwan?
“We don’t have time for this. Traffic’s already starting to jam up around the area.”
“Just a moment, Miss Meilin. There’s going to be a really huge announcement today...? Maybe everyone drinking coffee here will fall over backward...”
While we were bickering, the Nobel Committee members appeared on TV. Then, in calm tones, they announced the winners of the prizes in physics and chemistry.
“Huh? That’s it? That’s the end?”
Contrary to my expectations, none of the people drinking tea were surprised.
When I looked around, I realized I was the only one watching that news.
“What exactly was supposed to be so shocking about that announcement?”
“...IT developers won the Nobel Prize in Physics and Chemistry. People completely unrelated to those fields.”
“All of those people are developers? Why?”
“I don’t know the details either, but apparently the AI those people developed contributed greatly to mapping neural networks and proteins. More than what humans have discovered over the past hundred years.”
If my memory served me correctly, after that announcement, the theory that AI was overheated would slowly begin to fade. From now on, no one would doubt that AI would become the center of industry.
In other words, related stocks would soar even more.
“Ah... I see... They were impressive people.”
“Aren’t you surprised, Miss Meilin?”
“It’s interesting, but I’m not that moved...?”
“Then how about this? About a month from now, a Chinese developer will announce a low-cost AI. But its performance won’t fall far behind the big tech companies’.”
“Wh-what did you say? In China? Really?”
Meilin, who had shown little reaction until now, jumped in surprise.
I had been surprised too. How did they complete, with a single shovel, an apartment complex that would have taken years even with excavators and backhoes?
Were high-performance chips not a necessary condition for AI? Could latecomers catch up sufficiently after all?
I soothed her as she covered her mouth in shock.
“I’m sorry, Miss Meilin. We’ll have to go to the Forbidden City another time.”
“Why!”
“I have an important appointment with CEO Ming.”
“Hah!”
“I’ll give you a gift instead. X-Boyfriends’ Beijing tour starts next month, and these are VIP seats. I know how to do it now. When I use the National Pension Service’s supercomputer for ticketing, even VIP seats are easy to get.”
“Hmph!”
“If you want, I’ll get you VIP seats for the entire schedule, so please put up with it for a little while. We’ll go have fun next time.”
After placating the sulking Meilin, I was finally able to get away from my seat.
People say that during the American gold rush, the ones who made money were the people who sold pickaxes and jeans. But that only applied to the ambiguous runners-up. The ones who made truly enormous money were ultimately the people who found the veins of gold.
“...”
Now, we had to make a decision too.
Would we only sell pickaxes, or would we try digging for gold as well?
*
“As expected, Team Leader, your eye for opportunity is exceptional.”
CEO Ming, whom I hadn’t seen in a while, greeted me with an excited expression.
“I can only admire you. Did you predict even this through your various connections at NPS?”
I scratched my head with an embarrassed look.
“You’re giving me too much credit today.”
“It isn’t empty praise. I mean it. Recently, the rise of the AI overheating theory caused stock prices to hesitate, so how did you foresee things this far?”
“Did some crumbs fall your way?”
“Of course they did. In the futures market, AI-related stocks have already begun soaring. The portfolio you put together for me is already in a profit range of over 20%.”
I was very glad to see CEO Ming smiling after so long.
Recently, he had invested an enormous sum in Russian bonds that were obviously going to default, and had been spending his nights wide awake. Of course, even excluding that, his returns were still number one among the National Pension Service’s outsourced managers, but I knew very well how painful it was for an investor to throw away cold, hard cash.
So I had given him a gift for the first time in a while.
I had put together an AI portfolio as best as I remembered and handed it over to him, and that too was now turning into tremendous profits.
“That’s a relief. It’s nice seeing you smile again after so long, CEO Ming. By the way, what about the thing I mentioned to you before?”
But I didn’t have the leisure to sit around smiling.
Winter was coming... No, an ice age was coming. If my memory was correct, AI supremacy would, as if it were the most natural thing in the world, once again become America and China’s bowl of rice. But if we wanted to place even a single spoon on that iron rice bowl, domestic technological capabilities were far too distant.
“Yes. The materials related to Deep Think that you requested are here. As you said, they were preparing to announce their model in a week.”
“...In a week? Not a month?”
“Ah, yes. I don’t know the reason, but that side moved up their model announcement by three weeks. Since AI stocks are riding momentum from the Nobel announcement, I suspect their strategy is to take advantage of that heat.”
All of a sudden, cold sweat began to break out, and I grew anxious.
Damn it. It was faster than I’d expected. I hadn’t prepared the portfolio yet...
“But Team Leader, how did you know about this company?”
“Why? Is there a problem?”
“No, it’s just truly fascinating. Strictly speaking, it isn’t even a company—just a doctoral student’s graduation thesis. If not for the MIT paper materials you sent me, I wouldn’t even have found this company. How did you know about a company like this?”
“Just... NPS internal information.”
“Ah, I see. But.”
CEO Ming continued with difficulty.
“Why did you ask me to look into this company? No matter how much I investigated, it only looked like one of the countless startups overflowing Silicon Valley. Of course, its main business, quant trading, did seem to be bringing in fairly solid profits, but it was wasting all the money it earned on something completely absurd.”
“Aren’t you looking forward to the Deep Think model that will be announced in a week, CEO Ming?”
“...In what sense should I look forward to it? Looking at this company’s financial statements, the money they invested in this AI model is at most six million dollars. The big tech companies have probably invested over sixty billion dollars into AI by now, but here, the investment cost isn’t even one ten-thousandth of that.”
“...”
“Why are you paying such attention to a company like that?”
I smiled bitterly. He wouldn’t believe me anyway.
“I’ll explain that later. By the way, did you make an investment proposal to them?”
“Ah, yes. But we were rejected.”
“...They said they wouldn’t accept it?”
“Yes. As you said, I offered them a blank check, but they didn’t budge. Honestly, it was bewildering. It was my first time seeing a startup refuse investment money.”
“...What could the reason be? No matter how successful a company is, they wouldn’t turn down money.”
“This is just my personal opinion, but I think they have an investor far more reliable than us. I don’t know who it is, though.”
I sighed.
There was usually only one reason a Chinese company didn’t go public or refused investment money.
“To be honest, I thought it was a relief. When I was in America, I dealt with Silicon Valley startups plenty, so I know them well. They’re arrogant bastards who treat money as if it’s nothing.”
“...I see.”
I closed the documents and said to CEO Ming,
“Then we’ll have to go with Plan B.”
“Plan B?”
“CEO Ming, sell off all Nvidi holdings within today, and dispose of the AI-related stocks.”
“Y-yes?!”
“Ah, simply disposing of them won’t earn big money. Prepare to short Nvidi as much as the company’s funds allow. The entire process must be completed before the Deep Think model announcement.”
“Team Leader, that’s absurd!”
CEO Ming looked like he was about to cry.
“Nvidi’s stock price is at an all-time high. With the Nobel announcement, it has nowhere to go but up. Judging from futures and everything else, it’s receiving the full expectations of every global investment firm. How could we short a company like that...”
“I won’t drag it out for long. Just take that position until the Deep Think announcement. If I’m wrong, close the position and then do exactly as you think best, CEO Ming.”
“Why are you suddenly doing this? They aren’t even a competitor, just one of countless startups in Silicon Valley. Why do we have to respond this aggressively?”
I smiled bitterly as I looked at the Nobel Prize winners appearing on the news.
“It will be even more shocking than that.”
“...Pardon?”
“There’s no time to explain at length. I need to hurry back to Korea.”
“...Team Leader.”
To him, still unable to accept my instructions, I spoke with no trace of a smile on my face.
“CEO Ming, make sure to liquidate and take the short position. I’ll confirm every step twice a day through Director Meilin.”