-President Kim Sangcheol, do not ignore the cries of one million farm households!
-Do not ignore us! Do not ignore us!
-What is this talk of opening rice, opening beef!
-What talk is this! What talk is this!
-Resolutely oppose humiliating negotiations! Food security! Food sovereignty!
-Food security! Food sovereignty!
President Kim Sangcheol was a man of decisive drive.
After testing public opinion at a cabinet meeting, he immediately began the countdown to agricultural market liberalization.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, after finishing its meeting with HBF, approved cultured meat for retail distribution within days, and various related agencies began bringing up the matter of corporate farming, a subject that had been all but taboo.
-This insane government! Do you really want to die?!
-Who voted you in, who made you president!
-Open agricultural products, and it’s impeachment!
Factional logic can never beat the logic of one’s rice bowl.
When the government’s movements began to look serious, protests in the grain belts, including Honam, surpassed two hundred thousand in just four days. These were all representative strongholds of the Minguk Party, and conflict with its support base had been reproduced for the first time in twenty years.
Fortunately, though, the situation was somewhat better than back then.
The Participatory Government had been completely torn apart by internal factional strife from the very start of its term over the special investigation into remittances to North Korea, but thankfully, the current president’s political foundation was extremely powerful. With the opposition party annihilated, there was not much threat to the administration either.
Accordingly, many experts predicted that “the Blue House will play the agricultural products card,” and what we could gain in exchange became the question of utmost concern.
“Sejun, can we talk for a moment?”
On the day the date for tariff renegotiations with the United States was confirmed.
The Trade Headquarters Director called me out with a displeased look on his face. I knew why he was calling me with such an unhappy expression, so I paid particular attention to controlling my own face and hurried over to him.
“I didn’t take you for that kind of person, but you’ve got a sly streak, don’t you?”
“What do you mean...”
“I’m saying this because I already know everything, so stop playing innocent. A large number of people from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry were dropped from the follow-up negotiation team, and you were selected. According to our minister, the prime minister personally got involved in the personnel placement.”
“...”
“I don’t know what kind of connections you have, but now I understand very well that you’re someone with powerful backing. You know the Blue House has decided to go with opening up agricultural products, right? They’re telling us to get what we need to get from the Americans in exchange for opening this up, so why don’t you tell me? I’m just the puppet headquarters director, and you’re the real director, aren’t you?”
The director spoke with thick sarcasm, but I was not so genteel a person that I would decline such a chance to speak.
“An across-the-board tariff reduction. More than fifteen percent.”
“What?”
“Many experts say that America’s tariff estimate is based on the scale of our surplus with the United States. The reason we were asked for more investment in the U.S. as a percentage of GDP than Japan was probably because our surplus is far larger. I believe opening agricultural products can also ease this American dissatisfaction to some degree.”
“Sure, if there are more imports, America’s trade deficit will improve a bit. But what are you going to do about the two hundred thousand farmers protesting in Honam? In the first place, this is nothing but America throwing a tantrum and making unreasonable demands! Now that they’ve turned the FTA into a scrap of paper, we have no reason to make concessions to them!”
I smiled bitterly.
“Then we’ll have to build reactors.”
“What?”
“Once the trade agreement is over, Donald will bring up the issue of U.S. Forces Korea again. The economy and security cannot be considered separately. He will use every card he has to pressure us.”
“Look here.”
“Even if it infuriates us, we have to face reality coolly. Korea’s dependence on the United States is far greater than America’s dependence on Korea. Also, opening agricultural products is not something that harms our national interest. In the long term, it will help us manage prices much more.”
Bank of Korea Governor Shin Huiseop said it.
That Korea’s current prices were not a problem to be solved through monetary policy, but through trade policy. He had said it indirectly, but he was implying the FTA.
Unlike past governors, he went around pointing out all sorts of sensitive issues in Korean society, including Seoul housing prices, the FTA, and taxi licenses, and if my memory was correct, the future proved his predictions more accurate.
But he did not say those things because he was especially more brilliant or intelligent. Yeouido was overflowing with PhDs and economic scholars. Those brilliant people changed completely once they pinned on the gold badge of a National Assembly member, and seeing the farmers’ protests reproduced after twenty years, I could understand very well why.
“Sejun. To be honest, I really don’t like you.”
The director brought up something that was hardly new and shot me a glare.
“The fact that a young punk like you is already running around with people in power, for one. And I really don’t like your ideology either.”
“...”
“The foremost purpose of our Ministry of Industry is the benefit of the people. A protest by two hundred thousand farmers is absolutely unacceptable.”
“...What I’m saying is also for the national interest. For the future.”
“Cut the sophistry. Fine, if we open agricultural products, the surplus with the U.S. will go down, and America’s tariffs may soften. But who will take responsibility for the livelihoods of our farmers once they’re shattered? Are you going to persuade those people?”
He rose from his seat with a rotten expression.
“The follow-up negotiations will be led by our Ministry of Industry. We’ll reflect your wishes sufficiently and try to lower the comprehensive tariff by even one percent. But let’s not see each other again.”
He left the conference room, trailing cold air behind him, and I looked bitterly at the news playing on the screen across from me.
The farmers’ protest, which had surpassed two hundred thousand, had apparently now surpassed three hundred thousand.
That news sounded extremely strange to me. Until now, every bit of news I had seen had been something I already knew, but this was news I was hearing for the first time.
“...”
If my memory was correct, the current administration’s strategy of holding out would work fairly well. Contrary to public concerns, Donald did not scrap the tariff agreement, and Korea endured for four years with fifteen percent tariffs.
To be honest, from this point on, even I did not know the path well. If Korea lowered tariffs further in exchange for opening agricultural products, how would our industrial system change?
“...”
A major axis of the macroeconomy had shifted. It was frightening, and also exciting.
*
“Team Leader Lee!”
After getting thoroughly chewed out by the Trade Headquarters Director and returning to the company, Manager Oh rushed out to greet me.
It was my first day at work in almost a month because of the long business trip, and seeing Manager Oh made me as glad as if I had seen my own mother.
“You little punk, how on earth did you pull this off? I heard you fought like hell with the Ministry of Agriculture throughout the entire U.S. visit. But how did you convince the Blue House?”
I did not need to hear how the company had operated over the past month to know.
Were we not people who valued profit over the national interest? Even if we had to accept America’s trade demands, our greatest goal was not to lose the investment funds bound for the United States.
“How would I convince the Blue House? The Trade Headquarters Director persuaded them well from the middle. Heh heh.”
“Really? From what I heard, the Trade Headquarters Director tried to protect agricultural products until the very end.”
“His public face and his internal face were different.”
“Oh my—so that’s how it was. As expected, officials at that level really are masters at maneuvering.”
He grinned and handed me a document.
“Anyway, take this.”
“What is it?”
“Our country’s first unicorn, raised by us. HBF’s stock price has been soaring terrifyingly over the past week. As soon as the Ministry of Agriculture’s retail sales approval notice went up, it hit the upper limit four sessions in a row. Judging by the momentum, it’ll surge even more than during the secondary-battery boom.”
Seeing the report, the resentment from being chewed out by the Trade Headquarters Director vanished in an instant.
How many times over was this?
With the Ministry of Agriculture’s retail approval and permission for corporate farming, related stocks had begun to move, and the market was already swept up in a craze for theme stocks.
“And that’s not all. You saw Asan Motors’ stock price over the past month, right?”
“...Asan Motors went up too?”
“You punk, you didn’t even check that? It’s a stock price you can check just by turning on your phone.”
“I’m sorry. I was focused on the negotiations with the U.S....”
“Tsk, tsk. It hit bottom day after day when the tariff negotiations broke down, but recently it’s risen more than twenty percent. The longer the farmers’ anti-government protests continue, the more buying pressure gathers on this side. It looks like expectations for lower car tariffs. However...”
Manager Oh handed me a hefty stack of documents with a bitter expression.
“I think we need to consider a bit more whether this is good news or not.”
“What is this?”
“The electric vehicle market conditions we covered at yesterday’s risk meeting. This is news that came in through a Bloomberg terminal... Berkshire Hathaway is apparently going to strategically sell its stake in BYD soon.”
“Y-yes? CEO Warren is?”
“Yes. The sale will be done through a block deal, and it looks like it’ll be processed within a week.”
I examined the documents with more astonishment than ever.
As if he had expected my reaction, Manager Oh spoke in a calm tone.
“You’re surprised too, right? We were shocked as well.”
“...”
“There are all kinds of interpretations about the reason for the sale. Of course, if he invested for twenty years and made four hundred times his money, he’s earned plenty, but that man isn’t the type to do that, is he? He’s the person who’s been holding Coca-Cola stock for forty years.”
“...”
“If there were still potential for it to rise, would he really have sold? I wonder whether he judged that BYD had no potential, or whether he’s taking a negative view of the potential of the electric vehicle market itself.”
I read down the report with a bitter taste in my mouth.
It was faster than expected. If my memory was correct, this was supposed to happen a year from now.
Asan Motors had aggressively attacked the European market, and a fierce contest unfolded in the electric vehicle market... Was that what hastened Berkshire’s sale?
“How do you see it? Is it BYD’s limit, or the limit of the electric vehicle market?”
I closed the document and said,
“BYD is not a company that will collapse so easily.”
“Then the limit of the electric vehicle market itself?”
“Yes, that calculation probably had a greater influence on the sale.”
“...Then shouldn’t we respond too?”
Manager Oh spoke with concern in his voice.
“We didn’t hold the risk meeting solely because of Berkshire. Looking at recent moves, global investment firms keep pulling their stakes out of electric vehicle companies.”
“...”
“The Nasdaq has risen about twenty percent since the start of the year, but Teslan’s stock price is down twenty percent from the start of the year. In effect, that’s a drop of about forty percent. Of course, even if at first it was because of owner risk, its continued weakness until now can’t be explained. What do you think?”
I asked him,
“Manager Oh, this is because of the Asan Motors stake, isn’t it?”
“Of course it is. If the global bellwethers are doing that poorly, would ours have any upward momentum? And whether it’s fifteen percent or twenty-five percent, the fact remains that it’ll be hit with tariffs anyway. I’m wondering whether Asan Motors has a vision.”
“...”
“There will clearly be an impact on exports to the U.S. Wouldn’t it be better to sell now?”
I smiled bitterly.
Recently, the KOSPI had surged about thirty percent, and investors were happily agonizing over whether or not to board the rescue boat. But Asan Motors alone was on a downward slope.
Asan Motors’ stock price, which had been weak since the tariff negotiations, was down roughly twenty percent from its high, and considering that in the current market anything you bought went up, this was weakness of an extraordinary kind.
“What do you think?”
At Manager Oh’s question, I thought for a long while before answering.
“...It looks like a bargain sale to me.”