Early morning.
The division head reviewed the paper from last week’s risk management meeting and gave a pleased smile.
“We’re already in profit territory?”
“Yes. The Nasdaq, which had hit bottom, has begun recovering. It had collapsed below the 11,000 mark, but recently it’s recovered to 15,000.”
“How’s our portfolio?”
“Before it shot up, Chief Oh executed purchases in the fifty-trillion-won range. Of course, because he was buying in installments, he only managed to get about half of it in, but we still put in thirty trillion.”
Just how far did the Nasdaq’s potential go?
The Nasdaq, which had fallen to 10,000 because of the Russia-Ukraine war, was recording another bull run. Just last month it had been hovering around 13,000 to 14,000, and now it was once again eyeing 15,000.
Thanks to that, the pension fund, which had been blamed as the chief culprit behind pension depletion after recording a -7% return, entered profit territory at the fastest pace among global funds.
“That purchase—wasn’t Chief Oh’s work, was it?”
“Pardon?”
“The Chief Oh I know would never buy stocks in such an uncertain market.”
“Hahaha.”
“What?”
“You said exactly the same thing I did. No, it wasn’t Chief Oh’s plan. Senior Manager Lee Sejun argued for the purchase, and he personally designed most of the portfolio.”
The division head could only laugh in disbelief.
That bastard needed to set up a fortune-teller’s mat. In a falling market, he had minimized losses by focusing on stocks that didn’t ride the economic cycle, and in a rising market, he had loaded up on big tech and quickly recovered the principal.
He could only hope the fellow never got a girlfriend for the rest of his life and therefore never left Jeonju.
“In any case, thanks to him, our recovery was extremely fast.”
“That’s a relief.”
“I think it’s a misfortune, not a relief.”
“Hm?”
“If returns recover, you’re going to charge at the chairman again, aren’t you?”
The division head let out a hearty laugh. Department Head Choi watched his reaction and asked carefully.
“...Division Head, has your mind still not changed?”
“How many times have I told you? Last year, I stepped back because our performance was a complete mess. Someone has to do it. If even I don’t, nothing will change.”
“If you do...”
“Don’t worry. We’ve only just recovered principal. I have no intention of picking a fight with results like this. I have a target in mind, and until then, I’ll keep quiet too.”
He never said he wouldn’t do it in the end. Department Head Choi could only hope that the figure the division head had set his mind on was as high as possible.
“So how did last week’s risk meeting conclude?”
“As you instructed, we’re focusing on assets outside the United States. Alternative investments, China investments, various things. We plan to select ten external managers, and we’re also considering fund companies that handle futures and options. But their investment results are clear, so these ten will likely be selected. However...”
“However?”
“Division Head, it would be better if you looked at this yourself.”
The division head immediately understood why Department Head Choi had asked him to review it personally.
It was because the lone top performer currently driving the pension fund’s return by an overwhelming margin had suddenly submitted a report proposing to throw away five trillion won.
“...Argentina?”
“Yes. Senior Manager Lee insisted on it. He’s arguing that we should buy the Merval Index and bonds... Everyone is expressing reluctance.”
“Then they should have refuted him and debated it during the meeting.”
“Well, that’s... meetings don’t really work.”
“What?”
Department Head Choi sighed as if at a loss.
“Is there anyone among our pension fund team leads who doesn’t know that bastard’s returns? Since all the stocks they opposed so fiercely have turned profitable, no one can say anything.”
“Then why on earth is he saying we should buy Argentina?”
“...He says it will change.”
“What?”
“He says that if candidate Milei is elected, he’ll carry out high-intensity austerity... and that accordingly, Argentina’s stock market is expected to rise.”
“Of all places, Argentina...”
Was it twenty-two times, twenty-three, or twenty-four...? It had happened so many times that he could no longer remember clearly.
Argentina went in and out of the IMF as often as if it had left money there to retrieve, and considering the interest forgiveness and debt restructuring it had received so far, it was practically the only country on Earth that kept eating the IMF’s money and getting away with it.
“So what was the conclusion?”
“...We had no choice. We bought one trillion for now, and decided to settle the rest after Chief Oh and that bastard finish their business trip to Argentina.”
“Why are they going on a business trip now?”
“President-elect Milei and his transition team are currently inviting a large number of global investment firms and pitching to them. From what I know, not only us, but quite a few sovereign wealth funds from the U.S., China, and Europe have also been invited.”
The division head burst into laughter and shook his head.
He could roughly picture the atmosphere in the risk meeting that day. Argentina was a country people wouldn’t buy even if it offered fifty percent interest on government bonds. After all, the value of the peso fell by twice that amount.
He could clearly see all the team leads rising up like a swarm of bees to oppose it, and that bastard refusing to bend his stubbornness, and then, in the end, the employees unable to say a word because of his recent investment performance.
“...But who knows? If Senior Manager Lee sees Argentina’s hellscape in person, he might change his mind. We’re somewhat hoping for that.”
“To me, it seems far more likely that you people will be the ones to give in. Heh heh. But are there any positive indicators in Argentina?”
“Well... there are a few. Recently, ahead of the presidential election, the Buenos Aires stock market did rise by about three times.”
Milei’s chainsaw performance was crude, but unexpectedly, it was also extremely intuitive.
From the primaries all the way to the runoff, he had consistently called for fiscal cuts, and when that image brought him all the way to the presidency, the thought of “perhaps...” had begun stimulating global investor sentiment.
“But won’t it be the same as always this time too? If candidate Milei keeps all the promises he made, it wouldn’t be strange for a civil war to break out... I still think there’s no hope. What do you think, Division Head?”
“I’ll have to charge at the chairman as soon as possible.”
“...Pardon?”
“You’re saying the next one up is us, aren’t you? Our finances are a mess, and the money the state has to pay is snowballing... Whether it’s the ruling party or the opposition, someone has to say, ‘Let’s receive less.’ Otherwise we’ll end up just like that.”
Contrary to his wishes, however, the recent pension reform bill was rapidly gaining momentum. In fact, from the beginning, the ruling and opposition parties had never differed that greatly.
They had fought over “let’s receive more” and “let’s receive the same.” They had never fought over receiving less.
Recently, the number of meetings between the leaders of the two parties had increased sharply, and among most experts, there were observations that an agreement was imminent.
But until the situation had reached this point, not a single bastard in any related agency—the Blue House, the National Assembly, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Corporation—had said, “We need to receive less.”
That was why Division Head Park Seongcheol intended to stake his position and ram into them.
“Division Head...”
“Oops, I got worked up again. Don’t worry. Until my target arrives, I’ll stay quiet.”
“...”
“In any case, once that bastard comes back from this trip, give him what he wants. The money he’s earned us so far should be several times that amount, so let’s think of it as making one venture investment.”
“...Understood.”
Just as Department Head Choi was about to step back, the division head stopped him.
“Oh, right, Department Head Choi. Are these ten external managers confirmed?”
“We haven’t signed the official contracts yet, but almost. Most of them have extensive experience managing money for sovereign wealth funds, and their recent returns are also respectable.”
“Then leave one slot open among them.”
“You mean exclude one?”
“Yeah.”
“By any chance... is there a fund company you have in mind, Division Head?”
The division head smiled faintly as he thought of Sejun.
“I’ll talk about that later. Select only nine and leave one slot open.”
“Ah, yes. Understood.”
*
“Move, move! Damn it, stop wiping the windows!”
Buenos Aires, San Telmo Market.
Chief Oh, who had been heading to the hotel, finally ended up spewing profanity.
South Americans were indeed warmhearted people. From the airport to here... every time the traffic lights stopped, they wiped the car windows for them and welcomed the tourists with all kinds of words of blessing.
If only they didn’t demand tips, it would have been no different from paradise.
“Goddamn it.”
As soon as they arrived at the hotel, Chief Oh let loose another string of curses.
They had rented a car because they heard taxis would rip them off, and if they didn’t pay, take them somewhere else... but who would have thought they’d get their car washed four times?
“They invite global investment firms and don’t send a single official car? Just how empty is this country’s treasury?”
“...”
“You saw that just now, right? Even the bellboy takes tips in dollars. The bastards wiping the windows only took dollars too. What is this place, some street market?”
Argentina’s real economy was far more severe than imagined.
Even its own citizens didn’t trust their national currency, so they transacted in dollars. Thus, black-market traders prowled every currency exchange booth throughout the city, and whenever they spotted tourists, they sent contact(?) signals saying they would sell “blue dollars.”
No one believed in the official exchange rate set by the authorities.
“Senior Manager Lee, let me ask you this, human to human. Do you think this country has hope?”
“The president changed, didn’t he...?”
“And because of that, I heard today’s protesters exceeded one million.”
The recently elected Milei administration did not look particularly bright.
As if congratulating him on his election, one million people had gathered in central Buenos Aires and were already staging anti-government protests.
And understandably so, since President-elect Milei had forecast ultra-high-intensity austerity measures since the primaries... There were more than a few rice bowls tied to that.
“The way I see it, he’ll never be able to keep his pledges.”
“...”
“People are already barely getting by, and then government subsidies get cut? Those protesters become an army of a million. It’ll turn into Venezuela.”
“...Let’s go in, Chief. The meeting is next week, so we need to unpack quickly.”
“Are you listening to me?”
I dragged my suitcase and hurried ahead.
In truth, I had nothing to say. Argentina was a country where national default was an annual event. It had borrowed the most money from the IMF so far, and defaulted on the most as well.
Downtown Buenos Aires had the glory of Argentina’s golden age from forty years ago coexisting with the sight of slums... and somehow, it resembled the scene I had seen in my absurd dream, leaving a bitter taste in my mouth.
“Let’s just do one trillion. Hm? Even that money was invested in Argentina because we trusted you.”
“It’s not enough.”
“From what angle... This is a country where, even if government bond interest rates are fifty percent, the peso’s value drops by a hundred percent. Soon they’ll be printing ten quadrillion peso bills. Even their own citizens use dollars.”
“They’ll reform.”
I had seen it. The sight of a budget truly being cut with a chainsaw.
Thirty years ago, they had been smashed by Britain in the Falklands. But at least when it came to fiscal austerity, Milei had far more drive than Margaret Thatcher.
“Sigh... Fine, I’m sure you know what you’re doing. You’re going to say it’ll be different this time too, right?”
“I’ll explain it well next week. Haha... Let’s hurry in, Chief.”