It was a hot winter.
In February, when the specter of COVID had not yet fully faded, Russia defied everyone’s expectations and pushed ahead with a second invasion.
The day before the special military operation, Russia hacked the entire Ukrainian administrative network and displayed the message: [Fear and expect the worst.]
A highly sophisticated psychological operation meant to break the enemy’s morale.
The war that began as a cyberwar soon became a war of firepower, and major border regions, including Donbas, fell before the Russian army’s unstoppable advance.
Europe, struck hard from behind, convened the UN Security Council the following day and passed a resolution of condemnation, but Russia paid it no mind and seized Luhansk, Mariupol, and Donetsk as well.
A northern diversionary force through the Belarusian border.
The main eastern force charging forward with irresistible momentum.
A marine landing force coming up from the Crimean Peninsula.
The Russian army advanced swiftly from the east, south, and north, and now all that remained was to take Kiev and finish a referendum.
—I am still in Ukraine. We are all here.
But Zelensky, who should have fled to the West long ago, did not run. It was a stark contrast to the Afghan president who grabbed bundles of cash and fled the moment the Taliban crossed the border.
With him as their focal point, Ukraine’s rear forces began to rally, and when Poroshenko—his political rival, who had even gone into exile—hurriedly returned home, the allies’ will to resist burned even hotter.
And from that point on, the Russian advance began to slow like Hitler and Napoleon caught in the rasputitsa.
To be more precise, America’s reconnaissance assets kept exposing Russia’s tactics. To the point that the Chechen troops who landed to assassinate Zelensky were wiped out before they could even set foot on the ground.
And so the war that had begun in defiance of everyone’s expectations ended up unfolding in a direction no one had expected either.
[Breaking News — Nasdaq Falls Again Today!]
[Big Tech Stocks Struggle, Plunging About 28% in the Month Since War Broke Out!]
[Guns, Germs, and Steel... This Time, Is It Guns? European Markets Plunge Across the Board Amid Geopolitical Crisis!]
[Zelensky: “Give Us Weapons, Weapons, Weapons!”]
[Many Military Experts: “Europe’s Strategic Supplies Are Smaller Than Expected. No One Can Gauge a War of Attrition.”]
This small vortex once again plunged the global stock market into a labyrinth.
Wheat, so abundant in production that people barely even thought of it as a raw material, soared to prices no one had ever seen before. Inflation erupted in country after country, and defense stocks began to surge.
The Russian army, worse than expected. The Ukrainian army, with a stronger will to resist than expected... Everything was shocking, but the greatest shock of that war had to be this.
[Ukrainian Army Repels T-72s with Drones in Konotop!]
[Ukraine Effectively Succeeds in Defending Kiev, Repels Tanks with Drones!]
[Chernobyl and Ivankiv Successfully Retaken! Inferior Firepower Made Up for with Drones!]
[Beyond Reconnaissance and Attack, Now a Propaganda Tool... Allies Widely Promote Russian Soldiers Surrendering via Drones]
Chief Oh’s prediction that Korean companies might enjoy a boom from a war that had broken out in Europe ended in complete failure.
Europe, soaked in seventy years of peace, lacked shells, weapons, and factories to mass-produce them.
Thanks to that, Korea’s so-called Ministry of Artillery—having made cannons because it could not make nukes—found itself in a boom... and not long after the war began, Korea’s shell support surpassed all of Europe’s combined support.
Poland, effectively a participant in the war, ordered K-9 self-propelled howitzers more actively than anyone else, and thanks to that, domestic defense stocks soared at a speed far beyond those of other countries.
[KD Group Vice Chairman Nam Sanggi Demonstrates Drone Produced with 100% Independently Developed Parts at Defense Forum!]
[Nam: “KD Group Was Already Aware of the Possibilities of Drones!”]
[Nam: “Independent Self-Propelled Artillery Technology Is Only the Beginning. Our Second Leap Will Be in Air Defense Networks!”]
[Nam: “Currently, 70% of Military Drone Parts Depend on China. We Will Build a Drone Production System Capable of 100% Self-Sufficiency Within the Year!”]
After the Russo-Ukrainian War, KD Techwin, whose market cap had been only five trillion won, became a ten-trillion-won company in an instant. And when Nam Sanggi demonstrated a drone developed with independent technology at the defense forum, the stock price once again surged by more than 10%.
It was truly the age of the great defense industry.
But it was still cheap.
If my memory was correct, the true age of defense would begin after Germany’s declaration of rearmament. The international community would enter an era of arms competition for the first time in about seventy years since the Cold War.
It would soon unfold before my eyes, wouldn’t it? A great boom where anything related to the defense industry would rise as long as you bought it.
“...”
When I reached that realization, something slowly began to return to my memory.
In truth, from this point on, I clearly knew what stocks to buy. My memory, which had even gotten the war and its progress right, could not possibly be wrong.
But I was not interested.
“...”
Why did earning ten trillion won through domestic investment look better to me than earning a hundred trillion won through overseas investment?
Why did I keep obsessing over the nation’s real economy?
Why was my intuition telling me that pouring water into a bottomless jar would change nothing?
“...”
I had definitely had the same dream three times.
Memories I could not understand kept becoming clearer.
Was this life truly my second?
*
“Yeah, it’s me. Chief Oh, come to my office for a moment.”
The Director, who had come back from yet another fierce argument with the chairman of the Pension Service today, picked up the internal phone with a tired face.
It was upsetting. He had merely said that something impossible was impossible, so why did he have to suffer this kind of persecution?
“Yes, Director. You called for me?”
When Chief Oh entered the office, the Director hid his stiff expression and welcomed him warmly.
“I saw the overseas team’s report from the day before yesterday. Goodness, I should have called you in while carrying you on a flower palanquin.”
“Haha.”
The two of them broke into cheerful laughter.
After the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global stock market had plunged by 20%, but the overseas team was currently in profitable territory.
“What does the portfolio look like right now?”
“Yes. We’ve structured it mainly around non-cyclical sectors such as McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Berkshire.”
“Looking at the portfolio trend, the overseas team had already cleared out a significant portion of Big Tech even before the war broke out.”
“Yes. It didn’t seem like a situation that would pass easily. From a risk management standpoint, we disposed of a considerable number of Nasdaq stocks.”
“Good. I understand that much... but how on earth did you think to sweep up defense stocks?”
“It was luck. I didn’t think it would turn into such a long war either...”
It had already been four months since the war broke out.
According to the predictions of military experts, Ukraine should already have been annexed by now, and Europe should have resumed importing natural gas.
But the war was moving in the exact opposite direction.
The landing operation toward Kyiv (Kiev) through Belarus had come to nothing, and Russia’s main eastern army was floundering in the rasputitsa.
Meanwhile, Europe hinted at raising defense spending for the first time in decades. Because of that, recent predictions that Germany might declare rearmament were gaining strength.
“Incredible... Truly, it was an absolutely incredible response.”
The Director was so amazed he could not even laugh.
Stocks that would fall had been sold in advance, and stocks that would rise had been bought in advance. Even so, the portfolio had been reshuffled mainly into stocks that did not deviate from the pension fund’s conservative investment principles.
“Director... To be honest, there’s something I need to tell you.”
“Honest? What is it?”
“The person involved asked me to keep it secret... but actually, this portfolio proposal was suggested by Manager Lee Sejun.”
The Director asked as though he was dumbfounded.
“That guy again?”
“Yes. To be honest, I had also been considering selling off Big Tech and buying non-cyclical stocks to some extent. But the idea that we had to buy defense stocks was something that guy pushed through even while enduring my scolding.”
“He’s the one who told us to dispose of our Russian assets, right?”
“Yes. Thanks to him, we finished converting four hundred billion won as well and didn’t lose a single ten-won coin.”
The West, which had always offered support only with words, had recently changed.
Immediately after the war began, they imposed economic sanctions on Russia at the level of North Korea and froze all assets. As a result, the ruble crashed, and yields on Russian government bonds soared to 20%. In other words, existing government bonds had become scraps of paper.
They even banned imports of Russian natural gas, which everyone had thought they would never do, and America went so far as to withdraw every one of its companies.
It was a do-or-die strategy to prevent military expansion by cutting off the money supply, and because of that, Russia was strictly blocking overseas remittances.
In other words, all Russian assets had become worthless scraps of paper.
“Actually, according to him, we should buy even more defense stocks.”
“No matter what, haven’t they risen too much now? They’ve at least doubled.”
“He says they’re still cheap. He says that if Germany declares rearmament, the era of arms competition will truly begin.”
The Director smiled bitterly.
“I’ve been keeping an eye on it too... Chief Oh, do you really think Germany will rearm?”
“Germany has sent the most weapons in the EU at present.”
“Even so, there are all sorts of political and historical interests involved, aren’t there?”
“Look at Poland. They’re helping almost at the level of a participating nation, and instead they’re urging Germany to rearm. I think the old alignment of camps is over.”
The international situation had changed. In truth, it had changed quite a long time ago, but thanks to Russia this time, they could now recognize it with absolute certainty.
“And these are the industries Manager Lee has been focusing on lately. He said we should increase the proportion of gold purchases far more than now, and also increase investment in domestic defense.”
“Hmm... How much cash-equivalent assets do we have right now?”
“Including bonds that will soon mature, about two hundred trillion won. Before the Russo-Ukrainian War broke out, we converted almost all of our assets into cash.”
In fact, this was precisely why the pension fund was in profitable territory while the global stock market was being wrecked. Of course, hundreds of trillions were still tied up in global stocks, but thanks to raw material purchases, the surge in defense stocks, and non-cyclical stocks, they had barely managed to remain profitable.
“He’s an interesting guy. Haha.”
The Director burst into laughter, then said,
“Where is he now?”
“He went on a business trip to Seoul today for an important meeting.”
“Then tell him to come to my office for a bit tomorrow.”
“You’ll meet him personally?”
“Yes. I think I need to hear an explanation from him directly before deciding on this matter.”
“Understood. Then I’ll set the schedule tomorrow and inform you. And, Director...”
Chief Oh continued cautiously.
“Do you remember the promise you made last time? When we promoted him to manager.”
“Ah, six months? Come to think of it, that time has already passed. There’s an open manager position on the overseas team, right? Take him.”
“Yes... but my thoughts have changed a little.”
“Your thoughts?”
“Looking at his recent moves, I think this guy should go not to the investment team, but to the risk team.”
The risk team was a department above the investment team, one that only those with industry experience as well as proven crisis response ability could enter.
“From the SB incident until now... honestly, this man’s true value has mostly been revealed during downturns. To be frank, he’s too big a vessel for me to keep under me and scold. If you keep him at your side and raise him, Director, he’ll become someone truly great.”
“허허... Is he that impressive?”
The Director smiled bitterly.
“But let’s talk about that later. I’m not in a position to make personnel decisions right now.”
“...Pardon?”
“I think I’ll have to step down soon. Haha.”
“Wh-what are you talking about? You still have plenty of time left in your term.”
“When I said something impossible was impossible, the response that came back was to tell me to leave... Well, we can discuss that separately with the executives later. For now, tell Manager Lee to come tomorrow.”