Next, in other news.
The White House issued another military warning today. This marks the second such warning since the first one on the 10th.
In an emergency statement that day, the White House announced, “Eighty percent of Russia’s armored forces have massed along the Ukraine-Russia border region,” and stated, “The United States will not stand by and watch any military conflict.”
Nor was this the only sign of a renewed Russian invasion.
This afternoon, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff warned, “We have also confirmed a buildup of forces along the Ukraine-Belarus border region,” adding, “The United States is aware not only of the military details, but also of the strategic details.” According to the Joint Chiefs, the plan is to seize Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, in the shortest possible time and then hold a referendum.
It is highly unusual for the U.S. Department of Defense, which is normally extremely reluctant to expose its surveillance assets and intelligence lines, to disclose such detailed circumstances.
Many experts are therefore assessing this as “a deliberate exposure of strategy.” They analyzed, “With the movement of supplies and tactical details now made public, Russia cannot help but take them into account.”
The interpretation is that, as long as the United States is scrutinizing its internal circumstances as if under a microscope, it will be difficult for Russia to force a war.
The Kremlin, however, remained silent today.
Yesterday morning, at a military commemorative ceremony held in Moscow, President Putin emphasized “Russia’s security.”
There is nothing particularly unusual about emphasizing “security” at a military commemorative ceremony, but some interpreted the “security” emphasized that day as “a phrase hinting at Russia’s preventive war.”
Now that conflict with the West has grown over the issue of Ukraine joining NATO, the interpretation is that Russia’s “security” could ultimately lead to a “preventive war.”
Even so, there are still not many experts predicting an all-out war.
A major U.S. military think tank assessed this afternoon that “Russia’s military threat will be limited.”
Director Bolt said, “Now that Nord Stream has only just been completed, it will not be easy for Russia to play the ‘all-out war’ card,” and assessed that the recent military actions shown by Russia would “end as a warning against NATO membership, or at most a small local conflict.”
The interpretation is that Russia has played a pressure card not to confront the West, but to restore relations.
At the same time, Director Bolt predicted that if it does escalate into all-out war, “the difference in military strength is far too overwhelming,” and that “it may be even faster than the annexation of Crimea.”
The conflict within the Western bloc over NATO membership... Is there no thread to unravel it through dialogue and compromise?
Meanwhile, as the war crisis escalated that day, the ruble...
*
When the United States issued its third warning, global financial firms could no longer laugh it off.
These were people who thought of every causal relationship in terms of money. Judging only by “economic reasons,” Russia had no reason whatsoever to invade Ukraine, yet the international situation kept flowing contrary to their predictions.
“Chief Oh, how much do we have in Russian assets?”
Another risk management meeting had been convened.
The division head asked Chief Oh with a hardened expression.
“Yes... roughly around 800 billion won.”
“I heard from the risk team that before the war threat broke out, you sold off Gazprom, Lukoil, and the like? And exchanged all the currency too.”
“That’s correct.”
“Was that your instruction?”
Chief Oh shook his head.
“No. Team Leader Choi Gukhan responded on his own. He said that through various newsletters, he couldn’t ignore Russia’s geopolitical risk.”
“Team Leader Choi Gukhan? Who’s that?”
“Yes, that’s me. But I’m responsible for—”
Before he could stand up, I jabbed him in the side and winked.
“Thanks to you, we saved several tens of billions of won, huh? What is this, how did you respond to this problem before it even broke out?”
“Ah, well...”
Team Leader Choi looked at me again. I sent him the same signal.
“...I think I was just lucky. It wasn’t only me; other ratings firms were also concerned about geopolitical risk, and that happened to fit well with the situation.”
“You should have shared that excellent predictive ability with our pension fund too. If you had, we could have saved 800 billion won.”
“I’m sorry...”
“I said it as a joke. If you’d reported that we should dispose of Russian assets before this happened, I would have kicked you out. The people here probably would have done the same, wouldn’t they?”
At the division head’s words, everyone gave bitter smiles.
“Now, let’s deal with this rationally even now. Something that couldn’t unfold... has already unfolded. Our Russian assets still tied up amount to 800 billion won—no, with the exchange rate and stock prices cut in half, it’s 400 billion won now. Speak freely about what we should do with this, and what effect that geopolitical risk will have on global stock markets.”
While everyone was unable to even get a feel for it, Chief Kim Myeongcheol raised his hand.
“Division Head... we need to be cautious.”
“Cautious?”
“As you said, they’ve already fallen too much, and the losses are severe. But will an all-out war really break out...?”
“The White House has already warned them three times, and Russia has ignored them three times.”
“But even now, the majority of experts predict that the possibility of an all-out war is low. Russia has no reason to choose confrontation with the West. If anything, they may be doing this to seek reconciliation.”
“Reconciliation?”
“The Western financial sanctions that poured down after the annexation of Crimea. Russia has continuously demanded that those be lifted. But there was no breakthrough.”
“You’re saying it’s a negotiation card?”
“Yes. There’s a high possibility that after heightening military tensions, it will ultimately end in a dramatic settlement. It’s mutual benefit. Europe is already suffering an energy shortage because of carbon neutrality policies, and there’s no way such a Europe would give up Russia’s natural gas.”
Once Chief Kim’s cool-headed diagnosis ended, Team Leader Park also raised his hand.
“Division Head, I think exactly the same as Chief Kim.”
“Why do you think so?”
“If you look at the flow of funds, the possibility of war is extremely low. These are the recently surveyed Russian assets held by each country. Nowhere in Europe or the United States has disposed of Russian assets.”
“Hmm...”
“In fact, if war were truly imminent, the United States wouldn’t have stopped at verbal warnings. It would have ordered companies like McDonald’s and Gogol to withdraw and protected its domestic industries. But were there any such signs?”
It was true.
As if the war crisis were nothing, foreign companies in Russia were active. McDonald’s was still selling hamburgers, Pepsi was selling cola, and Russian citizens were watching videos on WebTube.
“That’s how I see it. When North Korea conducts a nuclear test, people in other countries think war is going to break out in Korea, but we ourselves don’t react at all. I think the sense of crisis in the Ukraine-Russia region is about that level.”
As the opinions generally converged, Chief Kim drove in the wedge.
“Division Head, with all due respect, even if an all-out war does break out, it won’t have much of an impact on global stock markets.”
“What do you mean by that?”
“When Crimea was annexed, Europe certainly acted as if it would sever ties with Russia, but behind the scenes, it was laying Nord Stream.”
“Hmm.”
“It’s the same. Even if Ukraine is annexed, in the end, they cannot give up natural gas. Disposing of Russian assets is not a good choice.”
The division head turned his head.
“Any other opinions?”
Everyone was as quiet as a mouse.
I also kept my mouth shut.
At a point when American companies had not yet withdrawn, and American financial firms still had assets left... selling off all Russian assets was impossible.
This was as far as I could go.
“Manager Lee, you say something too.”
“...Pardon?”
“Division Head, why don’t you hear Manager Lee’s opinion as well? I’m sure he has plenty to say.”
But just as I was holding my breath as still as a dead mouse, Chief Oh suddenly laid out a mat for me.
My eyes went wide. He couldn’t have been feeling good about me lately, after Team Leader Choi and I had caused such a serious incident... So why?
“Nothing to say? Manager Lee?”
But when he urged me again, I could read the look in his eyes.
It meant I should say everything I truly wanted to say. He would listen now, without prejudice...
“...It’s not too late yet. We have to sell everything.”
“What, what?”
“This is already no longer a stage where we can approach it with economic logic. We need to approach it strictly with political logic. The fact that Europe cannot give up natural gas is, rather, the card Russia holds. There is no reason not to go to war.”
“Hey, Manager Lee, does that even make sense?”
“Considering Russia’s unique political structure, it’s not something that makes no sense. Deploying armored forces to the border is a very firm expression of intent. That’s probably why the United States also took preemptive action despite the risk of exposing its surveillance assets and intelligence lines.”
Kim Myeongcheol sprang to his feet.
“No, what I’m saying is, that United States still hasn’t withdrawn its companies or its assets! If war was really going to break out, wouldn’t it have ordered its own companies to pull out? Manager Lee, what basis do you have for saying this?”
“They’ll do it soon. This matter has already moved into the realm of politics.”
“Are you going to keep saying irresponsible things?!”
With my words as the trigger, all the team leaders rose like a swarm of bees.
Suddenly, I resented Chief Oh. I had given up precisely because I knew this would happen... so why had he suddenly laid out a mat for me?
“Division Head, may I say something as well?”
At that moment, Chief Oh raised his hand.
“What is it? Speak.”
“This is Manager Lee’s recent return performance.”
“...What?”
“I scolded Manager Lee from behind a few times recently for buying defense stocks... but then that incident suddenly broke out, and defense stocks surged. Aside from that, from the circuit breaker until now, the return Manager Lee has shown exceeds thirty percent.”
“So?”
“I know it’s petty to say this, but within our pension fund, Manager Lee has the highest return.”
The team leaders rose like a swarm of bees again.
“Chief Oh, what kind of logic is that? Shouldn’t a risk meeting be based on objective indicators?!”
“You need to provide a reference! This is absurd!”
“Everyone, stop.”
The division head calmed them down and rebuked Chief Oh.
“Look here, Chief Oh. Because he’s number one in returns, what he says must be right—isn’t that too forced?”
“...”
“By that logic, a guy who won first prize in the lottery would be the best fund manager in Korea. They’re people who invested ten thousand won and made a billion.”
“...I’m sorry.”
“Restrain yourself. That’s not it.”
“...Yes.”
After saying that, the division head turned his head.
“Anyway, is this true? It seems like that fellow Lee Sejun has only been a manager for a little over four months. Is his return really the highest?”
Meeting the division head’s gaze, the team leaders fell away one by one.
“I-I’m sorry, Division Head. The KOSPI has been weak day after day, so...”
“Our team had been in a profit zone the whole time, but because of this recent issue, it suddenly turned negative. But this was an act of God.”
“I see. Everyone had their circumstances.”
With those words, silence settled over the conference room for a while.
The division head looked over the thoroughly cowed team leaders, then turned his head to Department Head Choi.
“Risk team. Dispose of the Russian assets. Stocks, bonds, all of it.”
“...Pardon?”
“I’m not talking about phased disposal. I’m saying dispose of all of it immediately. Exchange the currency, of course, and complete the transfers too. We’re pulling our hands out of Russia for the time being.”
Before the team leaders even had a chance to protest, the division head rose from his seat.
“Anyone who can’t accept it, bring me a written explanation. Why you failed to recognize the potential of defense stocks, and why your investment performance looks like that.”
“...”
“Sometimes, there are cases where you have to follow intuition rather than logic. Let’s understand it that way.”