My palms were sweating. Sberbank and Lukoil were scraps of paper that had plunged 99% right after the war. The same was true of the ruble, and Russian bonds all turned into worthless paper immediately after the war began.
“...I guess you didn’t dispose of your Russian assets?”
“Of course not. China’s fallen flat on its face, and America’s soaring like that... The only things that are even remotely safe and promising in terms of returns are Russian bonds and natural gas. If Europe would just lift the regulations, Lukoil would shoot up. Tch.”
I took a sip of beer and fell into thought for a moment.
He had to sell. Even if he couldn’t dispose of the whole trillion won, he had to sell off at least half.
The sudden increase in armored forces and troop deployments along the border... By now, the Pentagon had probably mobilized every reconnaissance asset it had and noticed Russia’s suspicious movements. If my memory served me right, the United States had begun warning about it a month before the war broke out.
Russia steadily ignored those warnings, and in the meantime, Russian assets began to crash helplessly.
“But why are you asking?”
“It’s nothing else, Team Leader. There’s a sector among overseas assets that I think is quite promising... What would you say to investing there?” “Investment information? I’m all for it. I was just worrying because I’ve got too much idle money these days. Where?”
“There’s one that’s a li-ttle risky, and one that looks almost certain. The expected returns differ according to the risk.”
“High risk, high return is only natural. Tell me everything. I’ve got so many cash-equivalent assets these days that it’s giving me a headache.”
I swallowed.
“But... you have to hear me out until the very end, all right?”
“What are you dragging it out for? Is it really that promising? Hurry up and tell me. I’ll keep my mouth shut and listen no matter what.”
“Lithium...”
“Hey, you little bastard!”
As expected, Team Leader Choi couldn’t make it past a single word.
“There’s no need to even hear that! Don’t you know I wouldn’t touch raw materials even with a knife to my throat? Honestly, every guy I meet these days does nothing but talk about secondary batteries.”
“Team Leader...”
“Forget it. Do you know how much oil was when I got promoted to associate? It was a hundred dollars. Back then, even the government was making a huge fuss about resource diplomacy. So why hasn’t the era of two-hundred-dollar oil arrived yet? Did more dinosaurs die in the meantime?”
“...”
“Commodities are always like that. Just when something looks like it’s about to take off, mining technology suddenly improves, or some new technology comes out. The secondary battery craze? Once tertiary batteries are developed, its popularity will cool right off again. To me, commodities are just a gambling den.”
At his convulsive reaction, I gave up on persuading him.
In truth, Team Leader Choi was famous within the pension fund as one of the most conservative investors. He had opposed me to the very end even when I suggested buying gold.
The stocks he mainly preferred were safe assets such as state-owned enterprises, banks, and financial companies. Because of that, his returns themselves were not high, but he was one of the few people who remained steady even in recessions. In a way, he was the pension fund’s most exemplary type of talent.
“I understand. I knew you wouldn’t go for it anyway.”
In fact, just as he feared, the secondary battery and lithium markets repeated surges and crashes. I had meant to tell him to approach it in the short to medium term and hold it briefly, but it didn’t seem like persuasion would work here.
“Instead, there are a few stocks with almost no risk and expected profits. Would you hear those out?”
“I can already guess. Is it oil this time?”
“AIIG.”
The wariness in his eyes turned into curiosity.
“AIIG... The American insurer?”
“Yes. Their earnings announcement should be next week, and I think they’ll exceed market expectations by a large margin.”
“No, why...? U.S. Treasuries have recently crashed, so insurers and financial firms that bought them should have taken a big hit.”
“Most of the bonds AIIG held were floating-rate notes. Because of that, they weren’t affected much when interest rates surged. And over the past two years, people restrained their outside activities, so AIIG’s insurance payouts also decreased considerably. The result of that should show up in this earnings announcement. Their subscriber count has also grown recently.”
“But it’s not as if Wall Street people wouldn’t know information you know. AIIG’s stock price is at an all-time high right now. Wouldn’t all of that already be priced in?”
“By my calculations, it’s still cheap. It’s an asset that can rise steadily over the mid to long term.”
“...Then are there other decent insurers too?”
“There are a few more. I’ll give you the details in a report tomorrow.”
As expected, he was exactly the kind of talent the pension fund wanted most.
There was little risk of it falling and a high possibility of steadily rising, so he showed interest at once.
“If what you’re saying is true, we should buy before the earnings announcement. Okay, thanks. I’ll check a few things and buy in stages.”
“And there’s one more.”
“Another? What is it?”
“Berkshire also looks promising.”
The curiosity that had just appeared on his face cooled right off again.
“Senior Manager Lee... That one’s a bit strange, isn’t it? Berkshire’s stock price is at another all-time high right now. And I’m not exactly one to talk, but... CEO Warren hasn’t been what he used to be lately. During COVID, he sold off almost all his airline stocks, and now those stock prices have soared. And he called cryptocurrency rat poison, but that cryptocurrency’s returns have risen far, far more than Berkshire’s stock price. He’s no longer the Warren of old.”
“That isn’t true. Berkshire’s earnings will exceed market expectations this time too.”
“...What?”
“He’s an old man who always makes money behind the scenes. Aside from the failure cases we know about, he’s succeeded at everything. Because most of them were successes, the failures stand out.”
“Still, hasn’t it risen too much...?”
“Team Leader, if that’s your standard, there’ll really be nothing you can buy. Especially if you prioritize stability above all else like you do, in the current global market, you’d have no choice but to hold only cash.”
After thinking briefly, he soon opened his mouth.
“Fine. If I even reject the financial sector, I really will have to just roll over deposits. I’ll hold a meeting, check a few things, and buy in stages. Berkshire’s earnings announcement is next week too, right?”
“Yes.”
“But listen, Senior Manager Lee.”
He set down his glass and looked at me seriously.
“From what I’m hearing, it sounds like you put a lot of thought and analysis into this... So why are you telling me?”
“...”
“Frankly speaking, you could present this at the general meeting, couldn’t you? Then you wouldn’t have to be scolded by someone like me with the exact opposite investment tendency... And if your prediction is right, it seems like a very good chance to score points. So why tell me here?”
“In exchange, I have one request.”
“A request?”
“Please sell your Russian assets. Lukoil, Sberbank, and all the bonds you can dispose of at your discretion, Team Leader.”
Team Leader Choi, who had been showing goodwill, nearly jumped out of his seat.
“I thought, for once, you and I were on the same page! What the hell are you talking about now?”
“Team Leader.”
“Senior Manager Lee. Even I, allergic as I am to commodities, acknowledge one thing. Global supply chains? They won’t recover easily. For the time being, commodities have no choice but to run. The reason I don’t touch them is because I don’t know when they’ll suddenly topple again. But why sell Russian assets?”
“...”
“You know Nord Stream—the Russian-German gas pipeline—was recently completed and is going into operation this year, right? Even with the U.S. giving them the eye, Germany forced the connection through in the end. Even I, who hates commodities, can’t deny that natural gas will soar. So why are you telling me to dispose of Russian assets?”
I spoke with a bitter smile.
“That’s why I’m asking this as a favor.”
“What?”
“Team Leader. In any case, all the stocks I mentioned will announce earnings next week. The direction of their stock prices will be decided soon. Then it’ll quickly become clear whether my market analysis is right or wrong.”
“You brat, that’s...”
“I see Russian assets as unstable. Not only for economic reasons, but also when geopolitical risk is taken into account.”
“The annexation of Crimea was already years ago... Do you think Europe would increase sanctions against Russia in the current situation?”
“I’ll leave the judgment to you, Team Leader. So after next week’s corporate announcements are over... please think it over just once.”
As if his mind had grown complicated, Team Leader Choi gulped down his beer.
“Damn it. Whenever I talk investments with you, it feels like getting my fortune read by a shaman. In my head, I know it doesn’t make sense, but once I hear something bad, it keeps bothering me.”
“Haha...”
“Let’s wait and see for now. I’ll watch the market and respond too.”
*
[Is There No Limit to American Companies? Nasdaq Hits Another Record High Yesterday!]
[The Old General Has Not Died! Berkshire Announces Record Earnings on the Back of Nasdaq’s Rise!]
[Even Financial Stocks Stand Firm in America! AIIG and Numerous Other Insurers Exceed Market Expectations!]
[Why Korea...]
“An insolent little bastard. A mere greenhorn dares to do that to me?”
Monday morning.
Chairman Nam Sang-gi muttered softly as he looked over the scattered economic dailies.
Recently, as he prepared for the split-off, he had asked several economic newspapers to write favorable articles, and he had been checking them constantly.
Fortunately, everything had gone smoothly.
Thanks to the development of independent technology, public favor was at its peak, and the opposition to the split-off that he had worried about was resolved without issue because the pension fund absorbed a large volume of shares.
But even after ten days had passed, his mood had not improved.
He had suffered a major humiliation at the hands of a punk who, if he had joined KD Group, would have only just become an assistant manager by now. For him, who had lived his entire life as a crown prince, it was also a first.
“Vice Chairman. I’ve finished looking into all the materials you asked me to check.”
While he was soothing his bitter mood, the chief secretary knocked. As soon as the door opened, Nam Sang-gi snapped at him.
“What kind of bastard is he?”
“Ah, yes. He’s a little over three years into the company, and it’s certain he’s a senior portfolio manager.”
“Is that possible? At the pension fund?”
“From what I heard from people around him, his investment performance has been considerable. They say he has handled crises large and small, from the SB incident to the present, in a stable manner... So there was almost no internal discontent even with his exceptional promotion. It seems he has solid trust within the company.”
Nam Sang-gi clicked his tongue.
“This is why those public enterprise bastards are a problem. Just because someone’s investment results are a little good, they hand him a title, and then he goes around shaking down companies like this! So what happened with that matter?”
“Yes... A week ago, our technical team met with that broker. His name is Zhang Yifeng, and apparently he was once a major figure who oversaw military procurement for the Rocket Force.”
“Enough about the past. So was the technology that bastard handed over worth the money?”
Ten million dollars. A sum of over ten billion won... Nam Sang-gi naturally suspected that half of that money had gone into that young bastard’s pocket.
“Forgive me, but... I think it would be better if you heard that directly.”
“What?”
“That broker handed over everything in great detail, from equipment samples to specifications... but our technical team’s reaction was unexpected.”
“Unexpected how?”
“Well... In the event of a contingency on the Korean Peninsula, Chinese weapons would naturally come in through North Korea, and with Korea’s current air defense network, it may be difficult to respond.”
“What kind of nonsense is that! We research Apaches and stealth technology, and we’re helpless against mere gnats?”
“...Their precise explanation is that the possible applications of this drone technology are virtually limitless. In fact, all the executives from our research team are waiting today to tell you about it.”
“What? It’s serious enough that they have to report to me directly?”
At that moment, there was a knock from outside, and with the secretary’s guidance, KD Techwin’s chief researchers entered.
Nam Sang-gi’s face twisted as he looked at them.
The cold, hardened expressions on their faces said everything.
That it was technology that could not be taken lightly...