I endured the stinging glares and continued.
“Yes... I’m serious. I think defense stocks have promise.”
“And your reason for thinking so?”
“There’s the favorable news about K-9 exports, and most defense-sector stock prices have fallen quite a bit recently. It seems like the right time to increase our purchase ratio.”
No sooner had I finished speaking than Team Leader Yu of the Alternatives Team snapped at me.
-Manager Lee, in the stock market, when you think you’ve hit bottom, there’s always a basement left. They fell, so they’ll rise from now on? How is that a basis for buying?
-Division Head, I agree with Team Leader Yu. They fell in the first place because the outlook isn’t that bright, so why touch an industry like that?
-If defense stocks rose just because a few self-propelled guns were exported, everyone would only buy defense stocks.
Department Head Choi looked at me with pity, then turned his head to the other side.
“What does everyone else think?”
But Team Leader Choe Gukhan, who had been arguing with Team Leader Yu throughout the meeting, reacted the same way.
-It sounds far too absurd to me as well. They sold a few K-9s, so it’s favorable news? To recoup the development costs, they’d have to sell thousands more.
-I think the same. It’s not a favorable factor, just enough to stop further decline. Once that news quiets down, it’ll fall again.
Department Head Choi nodded, then asked me again.
“Manager Lee, as you can see. The team leaders who were fighting all meeting are unanimous for the first time. Do you have anything to say about this?”
“...I think they’ll rise.”
“What?”
“Looking at the international situation, I think each country may start investing in armaments again.”
Bang!
Short-tempered Team Leader Yu kicked back his chair.
-Manager Lee! What kind of nonsense is that? Do you have any idea how many percent Lockheed’s stock fell after the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan? Since then, American defense stocks have been floundering day after day. So where exactly is the upside?
“...”
-I agree with Team Leader Yu as well. During COVID, Europe quietly cut its defense spending. From now on, even if America screams at them to raise defense spending, they won’t do it.
“...”
-In fact, America isn’t even in a position to nag right now. Countries all over the world are turning to austerity and cutting budgets first. In a situation like this, what country would invest in armaments and defense? In some ways, defense may be even riskier than Chinese real estate.
North Korean defectors say the scariest thing in North Korea was mutual criticism sessions. I suppose this was what that felt like.
Looking at the team leaders and managers whose eyes had half rolled back in rage, I thought that.
I understood their anger. In the midst of global bad news, they already had more than enough to worry about, and then I suddenly threw out something absurd. Of course they would be furious.
“Everyone, stop.”
Department Head Choi restrained the team leaders, then asked me again.
“Manager Lee. Even after all this, do you still think differently?”
I bowed my head.
“No. I think my thinking was shallow. I believe the team leaders are right about the outlook for defense stocks.”
“Yes. I didn’t say it earlier, but I think the same. With every country tightening its budget, defense stocks have far too little upward momentum, don’t they?”
“I’m sorry.”
“Well, there’s nothing to be sorry about. Risk management meetings are always this intense. You’ve had yourself a proper initiation, haven’t you?”
-Hahaha.
Department Head Choi soothed the tense atmosphere and said,
“That’s it for today’s meeting. Each team, keep a close eye on the market, and if anything unexpected happens, report to the Risk Team immediately.”
*
The superstition that Noroo Paint rises when Typhoon Noru comes is not something limited only to the Korean market. If anything, the U.S. market is worse when it comes to overexcitement and panic selling, never less.
One week after the risk management meeting.
The KOSPI plunged as much as 10% intraday, giving several people in the financial industry heart attacks.
The culprit was America.
Pabil, who had been raising interest rates every time people opened their eyes, announced that “inflation is stabilizing” and hinted that “interest rates may be lowered,” and then the Nasdaq suddenly crashed(?).
-The Fed succeeded in managing inflation?
-That crazy rate maniac says he’s going to lower rates?
-What kind of conspiracy is this now?!
Apparently, trust in the Fed had truly hit rock bottom.
When the demon of interest rates brought good news for once, American investors dumped every stock they had.
“Pabil is a bad guy. Bad guys raise interest rates. The guy who was raising interest rates suddenly says he’ll lower them. But normally, rates are lowered during a recession. Ah—the Fed thinks the American economy is going into a recession. That’s why that demon Pabil is sending a rate-cut signal...” Contrary to the Fed’s intentions, investors had interpreted Pabil’s remarks like this.
Thanks to that, the Nasdaq plunged by about 5% the day before, and the KOSPI, which reflects good news by half and bad news by double, achieved the feat of plunging 10%.
-Assistant Manager Park, you bastard! What are you dawdling for?! Bring me the report right now!
-Associate Kim, what’s the KOSPI doing right now? What? It broke below 2600 and now it’s 2400? Fuck! Does a 13% crash in two days make any sense?!
-There has to be a reason for a crash this big! Either the real economy worsened, or the big techs had earnings shocks! What are you all doing? Go find the cause of the crash right now!
Cruelly enough, this massive crash happened to break out on a Friday of all days. Thanks to that, the Domestic Team gave up both their Friday night and their weekend and wandered around trying to find out what on earth had caused the crash.
But even by Monday, they still couldn’t find the reason.
-Click.
Monday, 2 p.m.
In the middle of the crash, I slammed in a full buy and finished getting ready to leave work.
Stocks that fall for no reason rise for no reason. If one insisted on finding a reason for the crash... Pabil’s credibility had hit bottom after repeated failures to manage inflation, and when someone like that suddenly put on a kindly smile, conspiracy theories spread among investors...?
But it was all just premature fuss. America’s economic indicators were very healthy.
“Driver, could you take me to Daejeon?”
-If it’s a long-distance customer, that’s good for me. Where shall I take you?
“You know KAIST, right? Please go that way. Thank you.”
Half-reclined in the passenger seat, I looked out the car window.
If my memory was correct, this crash was the last bad news born of COVID and high interest rates.
This dreadful flu had finally detached itself from the global stock markets.
*
“Welcome, Assistant Manager—no, Manager.”
When I arrived at the laboratory, Professor Park Huibong and the researchers were lined up as if welcoming a division commander.
“You don’t have to welcome me so extravagantly...”
“Extravagantly? As you said, Manager Lee, the world of research and the world of management are different. Now investors look like gods to me.”
“You’ve become quite the businessman, haven’t you?”
“Have I? Haha.”
I exchanged pleasant updates with Professor Park and entered his laboratory.
“The materials you asked for are all prepared here.”
“Thank you. It must have been troublesome.”
“Not at all. Bragging about research achievements is my favorite thing to do as a scholar. Please take your time reviewing them.”
With its funding opened up, HBF’s research results were remarkable.
The realization of meat quality and texture had come even closer to ordinary meat, and now they were looking beyond beef toward chicken.
“Can I see the actual results?”
“Yes. We have sample meat prepared here.”
“No, not the sample. I want to actually taste it.”
“You want to do a tasting yourself? Then let’s do that.”
I closed my eyes and tasted the cultured beef.
It was delicious. The HBF research team had even analyzed the fat-to-protein ratio of Korean beef and realized the optimal texture, and as an ordinary person, I couldn’t tell any difference at all.
“It’s good... So now all we have to do is cut the unit cost in half?”
“Haha... Yes, that’s the most difficult assignment. Lowering the unit cost by 100 won takes at least over 10 billion won in research funding, so whether awake or asleep, I’m always worrying about money.”
“Actually, that’s why I came today.”
“...Pardon?”
“Professor, once you begin full-scale unit cost research, this investment won’t be nearly enough. Let’s do a paid-in capital increase.”
Professor Park’s eyes widened.
“I’d be happy to, but is that possible? I thought a paid-in capital increase wasn’t possible less than six months after listing.”
“We’ll buy it. Hand it over to the National Pension Service in a block deal. If you discuss it with KJ, they’ll tell you how.”
Professor Park spoke with tears even welling in his eyes.
“Manager Lee... I’m truly sorry for always being indebted to you. I wish I could live up to your expectations and produce a unit cost innovation right away.”
“I didn’t jump into this business with a short-term view. Professor, please focus only on research.”
“Thank you for saying that.”
“And Professor Park. This is just advice I’m seeking from an expert in a related field.”
“Yes, please go ahead.”
“Aside from cultured meat, what level do you think Korea’s smart farm systems are at? If research is done on this too, would commercialization be possible?”
Professor Park thought for a moment, then answered.
“I think it’s an area with no prospects. First of all, our smart farm technology is lacking, and for it to be possible, the issue of corporate farming would have to be resolved, which is a distant prospect. But even if such a business succeeded, commercialization is uncertain. Meat is expensive, at least... But wheat, rice, and corn are everywhere in America. Lowering that unit cost would take truly astronomical amounts of money.”
“I see.”
When I nodded bitterly, he asked,
“Manager Lee. May I ask you one question as well?”
“Yes.”
“Why are you always interested in businesses like this? I’m not an investor, but even I know that in Korea, if it isn’t IT, semiconductors, or automobiles, it can’t survive. But why are you so interested in agriculture, of all things? I’ve been curious since before.”
I smiled bitterly.
“Macroscopically speaking, I am investing in IT, semiconductors, and automobiles.”
“...Pardon?”
“If we can’t recover food sovereignty, I feel like those industries will be plagued by tariff pressure forever. Well, to be honest, it’s not only for that reason. As an investor, I also think this will make money.”
Food security.
This concept, first announced in Uruguay in 1994, had not truly resonated with humanity for nearly thirty years. And understandably so—wheat, rice, and corn had always been plentiful.
But after the Russia-Ukraine War, this issue rose to the surface again... In many ways, that war was the opening act of future warfare.
“In any case, I have another appointment, so I’ll be going now. I look forward to your continued research.”
After leaving the laboratory like that, I looked up at the distant sky.
They say it is easier to ask forgiveness than permission.
All the team leaders opposed it, but I could not give up on the defense industry.
Especially drones.