Zhang Yifeng.
Even amid my hazy memories, the reason I remember him so clearly is because of an unprecedented leak of military secrets.
Ever since 9/11, even the United States, which had never once taken a break from war, found drone warfare unfamiliar.
The Pentagon instinctively realized that the future warfare it had envisioned was terribly wrong, and by the time it came to its senses, China was already in the process of seizing 95% of the global drone market.
After that, the White House briefly suspended its sixth-generation fighter program on the grounds of austerity, and concerns erupted both inside and outside that fighter jets could not beat drones in terms of cost-effectiveness.
Fortunately, the sixth-generation fighter program did resume under the next administration, but several Pentagon announcements made it clear that the United States was conscious of drones.
Because America, the country that would “burn down the entire forest if it suspected a single tree,” began reducing its helicopter and armored forces, including Apaches, and investing in drones instead.
It was the signal flare announcing the end of the age of manned tactics and the opening of the age of unmanned warfare.
Behind the Pentagon’s decision lay the CIA’s diligent intelligence operations.
Zhang Yifeng, who had once been in charge of all military procurement for the Rocket Force, chose dollars over power after failing to make a comeback.
He confessed in great detail, from China’s possibility of invading Taiwan to its drone technology, anti-drone technology, and tactical operations. By the time the Chinese government realized it, his family had already completed their defection to the United States.
Afterward, both countries hushed up the issue, and it was quickly forgotten in the memories of ordinary people. But considering how U.S.-China tensions later escalated to the point of severing diplomatic ties, it seemed they had wounded each other deeply at this time.
“If you’re curious about my answer, then you answer me honestly first. Are you with the NIS? Disguised as an investor?”
Looking at Zhang Yifeng, whose hostility had sharpened to a point, I steadied myself.
Trust the future. He’s a man with many grudges and weak against temptation. He will never storm out of this seat.
“I am an investor. I’m not interested in anything except money.”
“You were asking me about technology until just now, and now you give me that ridiculous answer?”
“In the long term, I think stock prices will rise and jobs will be created only if domestic companies can absorb that technology. That’s why I asked.”
Zhang Yifeng laughed as if dumbfounded.
“If that’s really your reason, why not just buy shares in our Chinese drone companies? That seems far more convenient than waging this kind of intelligence war.”
“I’d like to, but DJI isn’t even listed.”
At present, China controls 95% of the global drone market. Among them, DJI, the leading company, holds nearly 70% of the global market share. Not China’s domestic market share, but the entire world’s market share—70%...
Was it because of that confidence?
Zhang Yifeng sneered and said to me.
“There are plenty of drone stocks to scoop up even if it’s not DJI. How about buying second-tier companies?”
“Our pension fund likes blue-chip stocks.”
“Our second-tier companies are first-tier compared to yours.”
He looked me over as if I were laughable.
“No, they’d be about tenth-tier, perhaps? Hahaha. If you want to learn technology, go to America or Europe. They have plenty of good technology over there too, so why did you invite me to such a dangerous meeting?”
I set down my teacup.
“Mr. Zhang. I’m an investor. If I’m certain something will rise, I can invest even in North Korea, not just Japan. Conversely, if it’s obvious something will fall, I won’t invest even in a domestic company.”
It hurt my pride, but I had no choice but to acknowledge my faint memories.
“I know, too. If the Chinese authorities control the export of just a few components, we won’t be able to make drones. That’s also why I came to you, Mr. Zhang, instead of going to America.”
In truth, that war was not a shock only to America. It was an even greater shock to China.
When the pattern of future warfare matched their predictions, they hurriedly issued export bans on all drone-related products.
The Chinese authorities completely restricted core components such as sensors, communications equipment, high-performance batteries, motors, and cameras, and at the time of the export controls, our military drones’ dependence on Chinese components was 70%.
“I’ll admit it. The Chinese authorities’ market monopoly strategy worked. It seems unlikely competitors will appear for a while. But how long do you think that monopoly will last?”
But all of this had been possible not because China alone was smart.
The secret behind its 95% global market share was a ruthless dumping offensive supported by the Chinese authorities.
They were always like this.
When the state designated a strategic industry, they first had factories built with cheap labor, then demanded technology, and in the end, they did not hesitate to use industrial espionage.
Once their technological capability reached a certain level, what followed was endless cutthroat competition.
Their domination of the drone market was the same.
DJI, with the authorities at its back, launched a massive dumping offensive and smashed the global drone market to pieces. As a result, DJI became a colossal corporation that recorded annual sales in the six-trillion-won range without even going public. No matter how healthy a company’s finances were, it could not avoid bankruptcy if a state-level enterprise attacked with low prices.
“What?”
“It sounds like the excuses of a loser, so I won’t go on at length. We should have recognized the danger when DJI was putting other drone companies out of business through dumping... But even America didn’t notice, so there’s nothing to say.”
At present, China’s dominance over the drone market was so absolute that the fight for second and third place had no meaning.
“But if we set our minds to it and go all in, do you think we can’t catch up to that little bit of technology? In an era when even North Korea is developing nuclear weapons, you think we can’t manage mere drones?”
“That little bit of technology... Heh heh. Then why did you come to me?”
“I told you. As an investor, I wanted to get a quote on our defense companies. But if you keep acting superior, I’ll take these toads and meet other dealers. It would be better to get advice from businessmen in drone-related companies rather than from a soldier.”
Zhang Yifeng burst into laughter.
“Young man, you have quite the way with words. You know how to lure people in while giving off the scent of money. Now you’re trying to make me compete with other dealers?”
“If it makes you uncomfortable, I have no choice.”
“Wait!”
He shouted at me as I tried to rise.
“Zero points.”
“Pardon?”
“You asked me, if China is 100 points, how many points Korea is, didn’t you? Zero points.”
“Are you trying to play mind games again?”
“This time, it isn’t a mind game. As a military expert, I truly think it’s zero points. If it comes down to drone versus drone, I don’t think you would pose any threat to our tactics at all.”
I sat back down.
“If you explain in more detail, I’ll leave empty-handed.”
“No, it seems your interest lies elsewhere, doesn’t it? Heh heh. Since earlier, everything you’ve said keeps sounding to me like, ‘Please leak some technology.’ Did I misunderstand?”
I did not deny it.
“Would it be possible?”
“Then you should be more specific. Exactly what technology do you want?”
“All of it. Sensors, communications equipment, high-performance batteries, motors, cameras—core components.”
“Wouldn’t the unit cost be far too mismatched for that? To be honest, these toads are already enough compensation for me sharing a table with you today. You’re far too greedy.”
“If I offered more, would you be willing to tell me?”
He stared at me for a moment, then laughed.
“That wouldn’t be difficult. There are a few companies that used to supply me with drones. If I ask those fellows to hand over some technology, they’ll give me things that would be very cutting-edge by Korean drone company standards.”
“How cutting-edge?”
“Enough that Korea could hold out even if we controlled component exports.”
I carefully calmed my excitement.
At present, military drones depend on Chinese components for 70% of their parts. At that point, it would not be an exaggeration to say they were Chinese drones with the Taegeukgi painted on them.
In truth, unlike what I had boasted earlier, Korea did not catch up in drone technology for quite a long time. With monopolies, it was important to cut off the sprouts as soon as signs appeared. A market ecosystem that had collapsed once did not recover so easily.
“That would be good enough. Then...”
“However, it’s a little expensive.”
“Pardon?”
“Those fellows are businessmen too. Do you think they’ll hand over technology to me for free? I’d have to bring them something like gold toads myself before we could talk.”
“Then let me ask just one more thing. Do the Chinese authorities have a defense system against drones? You entered the field far earlier than we did, so you must have anti-drone systems as well, correct?”
“Hahaha!”
The bastard tilted his head back and laughed.
“Don’t get cheeky. We were clearly talking about components. If you want to hear about that too, you’ll have to fill this entire room with toads.”
“Understood. Then let’s continue with what we were discussing. How much would it take?”
He took a ballpoint pen and a business card from his pocket, then scribbled something on it.
“Take it.”
When I checked the number, my head began to throb. I almost wanted to ask him to remove one of the zeroes at the end and just tell me about motor technology instead.
“Why that expression? You have the skill to bargain, but not the skill to raise the money?”
“Of course not. But for a sum this large, you’ll have to come to Korea in person.”
“Of course. The one selling the goods should go to the buyer’s doorstep. When you’ve prepared it, contact me at that number. I’ll tell you how I’ll receive it once I get there.”
“Good. Then I’ll see you in Korea.”
“Wait!”
Just as I was about to get up, he stopped me.
“There’s still liquor left. In China, it’s very rude to get up first just because the money talk is over, you know? Heh heh.”
“Is there something else you’d like to say?”
He emptied his glass and tucked the toad into his arms.
Then he turned his head toward me.
“Mm... Mr. Lee. This is something I’m saying as a business partner, you see. If you really are an investor, how about making a different investment instead of buying things like this?”
“What do you mean?”
“It’s already been decades since war disappeared. These days, the guys who supply the military earn more than defense companies do. Even America has withdrawn from Afghanistan, so why are you spending money in such a strange place?”
I smiled bitterly.
In reality, until that war broke out, defense stocks around the world had been in a terrible slump.
That was simply what armies and military expenditures were like. Wasn’t an army something that fired shells worth hundreds of millions without creating a single social spillover effect?
“Frankly, even though America is harassing them so much, Europe has reduced its defense spending again, hasn’t it? Arms reduction seems to be the global trend, so why are you interested in this kind of thing?”
“Well. I think it’s about to explode soon.”
“Heh heh. You seem to be suspicious of us. If that’s the case, don’t worry. We’re not ready to strike Taiwan yet. This is confidential, but I’m telling only you.”
I smiled bitterly.
“That’s a relief to hear. But I think defense will be profitable in the long term. I’ll contact you once I return to Korea.”
After leaving my seat, I looked up at Beijing’s heavy-metal sky.
Why...? Why...? Why had the future history remaining in my head flowed in such an incomprehensible direction?
I had agonized and doubted it countless times.
But I could not deny it. It had never been wrong so far.
Perhaps Chinese drones had been the last straw for America’s patience.
America, having escaped the subprime crisis, had warned them early on.
Stop with the planned economy and practice a market economy... Isn’t your cheap labor just because you squeeze your people dry? Accept democracy... And open your doors a little...
But the two countries never found common ground.
As a result, America, which had been the evangelist of neoliberalism under Reagan, suddenly turned to protectionism.
Could drones have been the trigger?
When it sat back and watched the planned economy, did it see China achieving a 95% global market share?
“War disappeared, my ass.”
A hollow laugh escaped me.
It hadn’t even begun yet...