Our ancestors used to say:
If a coincidence happens twice, it is inevitability. If it happens three times, it is fate.
Then does that mean this ridiculous dream of mine, repeated three times over… is my fate?
“You crazy bastard!”
Looking at Team Leader Choi, whose face was so red it seemed ready to burst, I sank into those thoughts.
This was already the third time.
Myself joining the pension fund, rising to department head, and successfully reforming the portfolio had already appeared in my dreams three times.
The reason I couldn’t simply brush off this dream—one that should have been easy to ignore—was because of how vivid it was.
It was strange.
The image of myself entering as an associate, then becoming senior associate, principal, team leader, director, and finally department head was far too clear. In the dream, even the achievements that earned me each promotion and the positions I moved into flashed past, and all of it was vivid enough that I couldn’t ignore it.
That was what made it feel even more unpleasant. In the end, the pension fund went bankrupt, and if even the ledger of the dead confirming my place in Hell turned out to be true…
“Answer me, you punk! What the hell did you do last night that made you nod off during a meeting? And one chaired by the director, no less!”
I quickly gathered my thoughts and bowed my head.
“I’m sorry, Team Leader. It won’t happen again.”
“You don’t remember that this is already the third time you’ve said that, do you?”
“No, sir. This time, I truly won’t let it happen again.”
When I woke from the third ridiculous dream, I felt certain of something. That dream would not come again… though I didn’t really know why.
“Haa…”
When I pleaded until tears welled in my eyes, Team Leader Choi let out a sigh.
“No, Associate Manager Lee. This is my fault.”
“…”
“You’re only in your second year here, but because you were good at writing reports, I spoiled you. That’s why this is happening, isn’t it?”
“No, sir… I’m truly sorry.”
“Forget it. The Silicon Bank report you submitted. The director approved it.”
“…Pardon?”
“You said it was too big to fail, didn’t you? That the Fed and the U.S. government would never let a 300-trillion-won bank go bankrupt. The director agreed with that opinion too, so don’t sell the assets. Wait.”
“…”
“I can’t stand the sight of you, so get out right now.”
Team Leader Choi waved his hand as if shooing away a fly, but I couldn’t move a single step.
“Team Leader…”
That damned absurd dream was chillingly vivid to me.
“I think there’s something I missed regarding Silicon Bank. May I submit another report…?”
As if it had truly been my life.
*
There is only one way a bank can go bankrupt.
When the money it lent out cannot be collected.
But banks are not fools either, so 80 percent of loans are collateralized. No matter how promising a company may be, it must put up stocks or factory land… or at the very least, company patents as collateral before it can receive a loan.
“Haa…”
Of course, even so, banks that go bankrupt inevitably appear.
If an IMF-level economic crisis suddenly creates large numbers of credit delinquents, or if the value of collateral plummets, a bank can go bankrupt too. But put another way, that also means it is difficult for a bank to go bankrupt unless there is an IMF-level crisis.
“This is driving me insane…”
There is one exception. Looking at the most recent banking collapse crisis, there were bad real estate project financing loans. But that case was less a loan and more practically land speculation, and even then, the government ultimately put the dying bank on a ventilator and kept it alive.
That was how difficult it was for a bank to go bankrupt.
“I’m really going to lose my mind!”
Four in the morning, long past midnight.
After roughly twelve hours of research, I finally exploded in frustration.
It didn’t work. It truly made no sense.
Silicon Bank, which I was currently in charge of managing, was a 300-trillion-won institution and one of the top ten banks in the United States. It was a company whose bankruptcy would be stranger than its survival.
Just in case, I combed through global cases in detail, but the more I did, the closer I came to the conclusion that its bankruptcy was impossible.
The reason was simple.
There was no trace that Silicon Bank had been managed more recklessly than other banks. Nor had there been a massive loan failure like real estate project financing. And there were no warning signs that the U.S. economy was suddenly about to fall into recession.
If anything, they were close to model students.
They had invested deposits in U.S. Treasuries, the safest asset in the world, so looking only at the flow of funds, one could say they had done their utmost in risk management.
“I must really be crazy… It was just a stupid dream. I should just buy a lottery ticket and call it an omen warded off.”
Nevertheless, there was one reason I was so fixated on this case… because in my dream, I had seen them collapse.
I didn’t remember everything, but some companies were so vivid that merely hearing their names brought the contents of the dream back to life. In that ridiculous dream, this Silicon Bank ended up going bankrupt, and astonishingly, the reason was U.S. bonds.
“Haa…”
I took one deep breath and checked SB’s financial statements again. And yet, amazingly, they felt so familiar that I experienced a sense of déjà vu.
I fell back into thought.
Was that really right? Did SB go bankrupt for nothing more than that?
“…Fine. I’ve got nothing to lose, right?”
Opening a report document, I decided to test my fate.
If SB did not go bankrupt, then my ridiculous dream was wrong, and therefore Korea would not collapse either, nor would I go to Hell. But if SB truly did go bankrupt…?
Tap tap tap tap tap!
I hammered at the keyboard.
Praying that this report would be wrong.
*
The next morning, 9 a.m.
Team Leader Choi Gukhan, who had come to work early, picked up the intercom with his face flushed red.
“Yeah, it’s me. Tell everyone on our overseas equities team to come up to my office right now. No, have the bond team come up too.”
After slamming the phone down irritably, his hands trembled.
The reason he had assembled the staff first thing in the morning was because of a single report by Lee Sejun.
He was truly shaking with rage. No matter how much financial talent avoided the pension fund’s management division after it relocated to Jeonju, this was unacceptable. If he did not deal with this useless husk of a man, internal discipline would collapse entirely.
Soon, when the overseas equities team and the overseas bond team had gathered in one place, he snapped at them.
“What? Why isn’t that sleep-talking bastard here?”
“Ah… Associate Manager Lee went to wash his face for a moment.”
“Wash his face?”
“It seems he stayed up all night at the office yesterday. He was dozing, so I told him to wash up quickly and come up…”
“Well, would you look at that. Now the company is basically his bedroom, is it?”
Team Leader Choi became certain once more.
If he did not drive out this useless husk, internal discipline really would go to hell.
“Forget it. This is the report that sleep-talker submitted today. It’s short, so read it quickly and tell me what you think.”
The report by Lee Sejun that he handed over was truly simple.
It stated that there were concerns Silicon Bank might go bankrupt, and that the assets should be sold immediately.
When they finished reviewing it, the overseas equities team and the overseas bond team rose up as if they had made a promise beforehand.
-T-Team Leader, this makes no sense. A bank going bankrupt?
-Isn’t this something we already discussed thoroughly internally? There’s no way the U.S. government would let a 300-trillion-won bank go bankrupt.
-This is an absurd conjecture. If we sell now, it’s a 20 percent loss.
Team Leader Choi calmly steadied his breathing.
Fortunately, aside from that one useless husk, everyone possessed proper common sense.
When all the staff showed the exact same reaction as he had, he became certain that Lee Sejun had to be made to resign.
“…I apologize for being late, Team Leader.”
At last, when the source of the problem arrived, all the employees looked at Sejun askance.
“The thing is, yesterday I…”
“Yesterday what? You stayed up all night at the office writing this garbage report? And that’s why you dozed off in the office?”
“…I’m sorry.”
“What are you sorry for? For using the office like your bedroom? Or for this garbage report?”
Team Leader Choi tried his best to maintain his composure, but in the end, his rage burst out.
“Associate Manager Lee. Is a report some kind of pancake you flip over whenever you feel like it? You were the one who submitted a report saying there was no possibility of Silicon Bank going bankrupt. But after muttering in your sleep in front of the director once, suddenly today we have to sell?”
“…That’s not it. There’s something I missed—”
“Missed, my ass! Why would a 300-trillion-won bank go bankrupt overnight? Did SB manage itself more recklessly than other banks? Or did it hand out massive bad loans?”
“…”
“The reason its financial statements are a mess is because it bought a lot of long-term U.S. bonds. It’s temporary, and it’s something they can overcome!”
“…”
“If we sell now, that 20 percent becomes a direct loss. How the hell does a sell report like this come out of that?”
Team Leader Choi scattered the report papers as he spoke.
“Enough. Associate Manager Lee, don’t bring me a written apology. Bring me your resignation letter. A bastard who treats losses so lightly because it’s not his own money has no right to handle pensions.”
“…Team Leader. It’s not a 20 percent loss. It’s an 80 percent profit.”
“What?”
But Sejun, who had been nodding along, suddenly had a different look in his eyes.
“U.S. bonds are the safest in the world… SB Bank trusted that too much.”
“What?”
“When interest rates hit the floor, they bought too many long-term bonds. As a result, isn’t the reason SB Bank’s financial statements became a mess because long-term U.S. bonds fell?”
“So I’m saying it’s temporary. Is the Fed going to raise rates until the United States collapses? Eventually, they’ll announce a freeze soon, and then the bond market will stabilize too. Then long-term bonds won’t fall any further.”
“…I think differently. Inflation is too stubborn for that. I think the Fed will raise rates further, and if that happens, the long-term bonds Silicon Bank holds will fall further.”
Team Leader Choi snorted as if he found it absurd. Then he turned his head toward the overseas bond team.
“Principal Park.”
“Yes.”
“How much have U.S. interest rates risen over the past three months?”
“About 2.5 percent.”
He turned back to Sejun.
“Associate Manager Lee. Did you hear that? They made five big-step hikes in just three months. And you’re saying the Fed will raise rates even more?”
“Yes. I think they’ll raise them to around 4 percent at least.”
“What kind of lunatic…”
It made no sense.
The current pace of U.S. rate hikes was the steepest since Reagan. Screams were erupting all across the United States from the rapid interest rate increases, and that resentment was being directed at the White House.
And yet this was not the end, and there was still room for further increases?
“They’re going to raise rates even more? Why, because the Democrats want to hand power over to the Republicans as soon as possible?”
“That’s what the CPI figures indicate. U.S. inflation is not coming under control easily.”
Bang!
“So?”
“…”
“U.S. interest rates will soar even higher, long-term bonds will fall, SB Bank’s financial statements will worsen further, depositors who feel anxious about that will withdraw their money, and because this happens to be the mobile era, withdrawing deposits has become easy, so a bank run will make it collapse in an instant. That’s the conclusion of your report, isn’t it?”
“…”
“Associate Manager Lee. Bring me a reference. I’ve worked in finance for twenty years, and I’ve seen banks go under more than once. But I’ve never seen a bank collapse because coincidence piles on coincidence piles on coincidence like some sci-fi novel. What’s your reference? What case makes you think this is possible?”
Sejun clenched his fists tightly.
It was an absurd report, even though he had been the one to submit it. But every time such doubts rose in him, that thing—whether it was a ridiculous dream or fate—ran over his entire body.
“…Then did COVID have a reference?”
“What?”
“A case where a plague suddenly spread across the entire world, borders were closed, industries were devastated, a contactless society arrived overnight, and countries lowered interest rates all the way to zero… Has there ever been such a case in financial history?”
For the first time, Team Leader Choi, who had been furious from start to finish, could not open his mouth.
Looking at him, Sejun spoke with even greater emphasis.
“In any case, we cannot find a reference for this situation. So we have to look only at the phenomena that exist.”