[Breaking News - G2 Leaders Agree on End-of-War Plan]
[Wasn’t This Supposed to Be a Trade Agreement...? Defying Initial Expectations, Both Sides Issue Joint Statement on Diplomatic and Security Matters]
[G2: “Oppose Violent Resolution in Any Form; Both Nations Agree to Cease All Support in Arms Procurement and War Funding”]
11 p.m.
The joint statement announced by the two countries close to midnight was more than enough to shake the world.
The two nations called for an end to the Ukraine-Russia war, which was currently repeating nothing but battles for high ground, and as a practical measure toward that end, they agreed to immediately halt the provision of weapons and war funds.
As of this very hour, today.
The agreement, announced in defiance of everyone’s expectations, plunged the entire globe into shock.
One hour after the agreement was announced, Europe protested that it had been bypassed in the negotiations for the end-of-war proposal, declaring that it would provide weapons to Ukraine regardless of America’s will.
Russia was no different.
The Kremlin, in an unusual move, openly revealed its displeasure toward China and firmly stated that no country could interfere with its right to self-defense.
[Zelensky: “The worst peace agreement. Have you forgotten how Chamberlain was deceived by Hitler? No country can break the Ukrainian people’s will to fight to the end!”]
But once the talk turned to money, both camps became astonishingly calm.
Ironically, the Ukraine-Russia war was directly tied to Europe’s security, yet the country that had provided Ukraine with the most weapons and war funding was the United States.
In other words, if the United States stopped its aid, Europe would have to come up with twice the war funds, and the EU’s current economic stamina was not at a level capable of bearing that.
Even Ukraine was better off compared to Russia.
Russia, currently under all kinds of economic sanctions from major powers, could not even supply daily necessities without China’s bond purchases and indirect export routes.
And now that China had declared it would stop procuring war funds, the last remaining respirator was about to be removed.
In the end, both sides pushed back fiercely on the first day, but as the G2 summit continued into a second and third round, the atmosphere naturally shifted toward ending the war.
Taking advantage of the softened resistance, the G2 leaders announced the “Gyeongju Memorandum” at the final meeting, opposing all military clashes in the Ukraine-Russia combat zones.
*
“If everyone’s here, let’s begin the meeting.”
The first risk management meeting held after the APEC summit closed.
Korea had received quite a few gifts during this APEC summit, but Director Oh’s face was frighteningly cold.
I kept stealing glances at Director Oh’s face.
The reason his mood was this terrible was entirely because of me. Even so, the fact that he still hadn’t handed my materials over to the prosecution—did that mean he might forgive me...?
“Chief Choi?”
“Yes.”
At his call, Chief Choi rose from his seat.
“Before giving my report, I’ll offer a brief self-assessment first. I believe it was a meeting that could not have gone any better. CEO Huang, who visited during this APEC summit, promised a large-scale GPU supply to Hoam, Hynix, and others.”
“The chicken restaurant meeting?”
“Yes. The quantity promised then was Blackwell. Blackwell, the one even Big Tech companies are lining up to buy. As a result, not only Hoam and Hynix, but even domestic AI-related stocks such as Nave soared, and the KOSPI rose by roughly 10%.”
The Blackwell supply had been promised originally, but this chicken restaurant meeting moved up the timing. And with a quantity far greater than what had initially been promised.
Director Oh softened his murderous expression a little and turned his head toward Chief Kim.
“Altman came too, didn’t he?”
Chief Kim nodded.
“Yes, that’s correct. He left after deciding to build a large-scale data center in Korea.”
“But is there any benefit to that? A data center is practically an electricity-guzzling hippo, isn’t it?”
“That’s why I believe they gave us the gift of large-scale semiconductor supply contracts with Hoam, Hynix, and others. From our perspective, in exchange for building a data center, we secured one major supply chain, so it doesn’t seem like a losing deal.”
“Well, all right. Semiconductors are one thing. What about our platforms?”
“Nave’s stock price has surged by about 20% compared to before APEC. Due to expectations for Blackwell. If this trend continues, it is forecast that Nave will soon recover its previous high.”
For once, the atmosphere in the conference room, where opinions were usually sharply divided for and against, reached unanimity. Though the degree varied, no one denied that the APEC summit had ended successfully.
This summit drew more attention for the meetings between companies than for the meetings between heads of state, and Korea’s haul of gifts was quite substantial.
In particular, the overtures from Big Tech companies leading the global market were considerable. Our semiconductor companies achieved large-scale supply contracts and secured an extremely reliable supply chain. Thanks to that, the KOSPI, which had already risen on the supercycle, entered an even stronger upward trend.
“Good. IT has already been covered plenty in the news anyway. What about defense?”
“Defense can also be called a huge success. The nuclear submarine restrictions from the United States were lifted. With this, expectations are high that our defense industry will make another leap forward.”
“Then do you think our defense stocks will continue to rise going forward?”
But the amicable atmosphere quickly calmed at Director Oh’s last question.
In truth, this was not a question asked because he truly had high hopes for defense stocks. He was asking about the effect the end of the Ukraine-Russia war would have on the global defense industry.
“Why is everyone silent? Nuclear submarines seem like pretty good news for Korea too.”
“With all due respect, Director. Separate from that issue, I believe defense may enter another harsh winter going forward.”
“Because of the end of the war?”
“Yes. In the Gyeongju Memorandum agreed upon this time, the G2’s strong will toward ending the war was evident. In truth, defense cannot always trend upward like Big Tech. In a way, it can be seen as one of the industries most affected by conditions.”
“Then you think it will be on a downward trend from now on?”
“Yes. The Ukraine-Russia war was an utterly unexpected war, but will another war of that scale occur within the next few years?”
Everyone in the conference room nodded.
Nothing in this world lasts forever. Domestic defense stocks, including Techwin, had surged roughly tenfold in less than five years, and now the war had ended.
The boom was over.
“Good. Does anyone have a different opinion?”
“Director, I think a little differently.”
Amid the silence, I carefully raised my hand.
Director Oh glanced over me from the corner of his eye and said,
“I thought you’d stay quiet, at least today. But as expected, you always overturn expectations.”
“...”
“Speak, Team Leader Lee.”
Ignoring his scolding, I continued.
“Although the war has ended, the arms race among major powers has only just begun. Among major European countries, some are already reconsidering conscription.”
“Isn’t that an annual event in Europe? They’re always reconsidering it, but they’ve never actually implemented it.”
“Of course, conscription may be difficult, but I expect Europe’s trend of military expansion to continue.”
“Your basis?”
“The United States. The United States has pressured Europe on military spending before, and it continues to do so now. If Europe reduces its armaments just because the war ended, the U.S. absolutely won’t stand by and watch. And we can’t ignore the fact that public opinion in Europe in favor of rearmament has risen because of this war.”
“Hmm...”
“More than anything else, the fact that the Ukraine-Russia war ended as a half-baked cease-fire is significant. Europe will have no choice but to keep watching Russia from now on.”
If my memory was correct, that was how it had gone.
After the end of the war, our defense stocks underwent a considerable correction, but situations like business withdrawals or near-bankruptcies, as in the past, did not occur. Rather, they steadily trended upward as a bargain-buying opportunity and soon broke through their previous highs.
It was exactly like game theory.
Russia, whose pride had been deeply wounded, continued massive military development even after the war ended, and that ultimately influenced Europe’s military buildup.
Of course, defense spending is a consumptive budget, and among national budgets, it can be called the budget with the least ripple effect.
Accordingly, several European countries that had relaxed showed signs of quietly reducing their armaments, but fortunately, each time, the United States glared them down. Because of that, as I remembered it, the arms race among countries continued for quite some time even after the war ended.
“Then what about the others?”
-Director, to be honest, I think the same. It’s not as if they clearly won the war, and with the threat of Russia still very much alive, I don’t think Europe will easily reduce its armaments.
-I’m of the same opinion. Even if Europe does reduce its armaments, the United States won’t stay still. Considering the various circumstances, I think the current plunge in defense stocks should be seen as a bargain-buying opportunity.
Director Oh, who had been listening for a while, opened his mouth.
“Good opinions. We’ll see defense stocks as a bargain-buying opportunity. Then now the most important issue remains...”
Director Oh crossed his arms and said,
“Ukraine, Russia... What do you think will happen with the reconstruction business?”
*
8 p.m., after the risk meeting ended.
Everyone else had gone home and could enjoy a pleasant Friday, but I was dragged helplessly into Director Oh’s office.
“...Director, I’m here.”
Damn it... Is today really the day of my funeral rites?
I opened the door and stepped inside, but Director Oh didn’t even look at me and only stared at the distant sky.
After a long silence passed like that, Director Oh spoke as if complaining.
“At first, I was so angry my eyes nearly flipped. Because you didn’t comply with Western financial sanctions? Because you invested money that might never be recovered? No. What angered me the most was that for three years, you stabbed me in the back and bought Russian bonds. Weren’t you the one who said right before the Ukraine-Russia war broke out that we had to sell Russian assets? Then why were you busily sweeping up bonds behind my back?”
“...Director.”
“No. The fool was me for getting played. It was strange from the start that you selected a Chinese fund company as our entrusted manager. Tell me. Was this your purpose from the beginning?”
I lowered my head without a word.
In truth, this had been my purpose from the beginning. The reason I selected an unverified entrusted manager was to use them like my own hands and feet. And the reason I selected a Chinese fund company was to access Russian bonds more easily.
“...I will accept it willingly.”
“What?”
“...All responsibility.”
“Is that so? If I hand these materials over to the prosecution, the aggravated punishment act will apply, and you’ll get at least ten years. No, wait. Has there ever been a case of embezzling thirty billion dollars in Korea? I looked it up, and there isn’t even a precedent. You’ll probably be sentenced to at least twenty years and recorded as precedent. Can you really handle that?”
I lowered my head, silent as a dead mouse.
In truth, I had diligently won over figures in the political world in preparation for this, but for now, it seemed best to keep my mouth shut.
Perhaps he found me pitiful, because he spoke in a slightly softened tone.
“But you know. After my anger subsided a little, another thought occurred to me. The fact that Changcheng bought thirty billion dollars’ worth of bonds without us even noticing means they earned it themselves, doesn’t it?”
“...”
“Tell me. How did our initial investment grow more than tenfold in three years? Even though Changcheng bought bonds through secret ledgers, how is it still ranked first in returns among entrusted managers?”