“Prime Minister, is that really true?”
The Blue House executive office.
Kim Sang-cheol, who had been lost in thought for some time, asked Lee Chan-ho the same question once more.
“Yes, it is all true. It seems an agreement has already been reached with the Chinese side.”
Kim Sang-cheol let out a sigh.
Exactly two years and six months. As of today, Kim Sang-cheol had reached the halfway point of his term, and he was currently preparing for an enormous national event. He was preparing for the APEC summit, the largest economic gathering in the Asia-Pacific region.
But this APEC did not seem likely to remain influential only in Asia.
“...So you’re saying there really will be discussions about ending the war?”
“Yes, that’s right.”
The Russo-Ukrainian War, which had already dragged on far longer than the Korean War, was showing signs of coming to an end. The United States and China had actively sounded out intentions for a ceasefire.
“But I don’t believe we’ve heard anything directly from the Russian side. How much can we trust this?”
“Mr. President, China is effectively acting as their proxy. In the current situation, it would be safe to regard China’s position as Russia’s position.”
“A proxy?”
“Yes. The reason Russia was able to break through the economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries and secure war funds was entirely because of indirect exports through China. If that China now says it wants to stop the war, the Kremlin has no choice.”
“Is that so?”
“Yes. The fact that China has so actively sounded out intentions like this means the matter has been settled internally. The U.S.-China negotiations will effectively become negotiations to end the war.”
After asking the same question again and again, Kim Sang-cheol seemed to have finally accepted it, and asked no more.
In truth, Russia was currently under economic sanctions on the level of Iran and North Korea. Russian assets overseas had already been frozen, and Europe had even cut off its natural gas.
And yet, as if dollars kept bubbling up from somewhere, Russia had steadily secured war funds, and inflation inside Russia had been managed better than expected.
The secret was not far away.
Russian natural gas was still being steadily supplied to Europe through the Third World. Conversely, daily necessities for the Russian people were being steadily exported to Russia through the same route. They were the same economic sanctions, but the net around North Korea was extremely tight, while the net around Russia was loose enough for even sharks to pass through.
There was no way the United States and Europe did not know about these indirect export routes... but the truth was, they were tired now.
As both camps entered a stalemate, they began to cautiously mention talk of ending the war.
“Then what about the terms? As far as I know, the positions of Ukraine and Russia differ considerably.”
“I don’t think it will differ much from the current stalemate.”
“A truce like that between North and South Korea?”
“Yes. A ceasefire line will likely be drawn around the current combat zones. Both the United States and China share the same position.”
Kim Sang-cheol raised his eyebrows.
“But Russia has been insisting that Donbas be handed over...”
“China does not think that way. Russia will follow China’s opinion.”
“Ukraine has said there will be no ceasefire without security guarantees...”
“The United States does not think that way. It seems they will force a ceasefire without NATO membership.”
Kim Sang-cheol smiled bitterly.
How had the Soviet Union, before which even Mao Zedong had yielded a step, ended up like this? He had heard that, to raise war funds, Russia had issued a considerable amount of high-interest government bonds, and the country that had most actively purchased them was China. Even after the war ended, Russia likely would not be able to escape China’s leash.
“I see. So that’s how it has turned out.”
Kim Sang-cheol sighed and said,
“As for us, we welcome any path toward peace at any time. If the two countries issue a declaration ending the war here in Gyeongju, I expect Korea’s global standing will improve as well.”
“Then...?”
“Mediate actively. Arrange all APEC schedules around the leaders of the United States and China, and spare no resources or effort for whatever is needed for their talks.”
“Understood. Then I will give orders for full preparations.”
Just as Lee Chan-ho was about to leave, Kim Sang-cheol’s question stopped him in his tracks.
“Prime Minister, it has been a war with a great deal to learn from. Has it not?”
“...Pardon?”
“The Russo-Ukrainian War. The Budapest Memorandum was, as expected, nothing more than a scrap of paper. There is no way the free world did not know about the indirect export routes, but seeing as they never sanctioned China to the very end.”
“Th-that is true. It was not that they did not. It was that they could not.”
“And yet, seeing as they never allowed Ukraine into NATO to the very end, could we call this a victory on points for Russia?”
“I’m not sure... The economic damage is far too severe for that. It is expected that Russia’s economy will remain beneath China’s feet even after the war ends... I don’t think there are any winners.”
Kim Sang-cheol smiled bitterly.
As expected, in the twenty-first century, once a war broke out, all countries involved became losers. Even America’s Iraq War, which it had won easily, ultimately ended in defeat.
“I see. As expected, contracts between nations are not something to be trusted.”
And lately, Kim Sang-cheol had been realizing just how light and meaningless contracts between nations could be.
The FTA concluded twenty years ago.
The FTA, which had begun under American trade pressure, had destroyed the approval ratings of two Korean administrations, progressive and conservative alike, but it had not taken even ten days to overturn the agreement they had worked so hard to reach.
There was not even a pretext.
America had simply thrown a tantrum out of nowhere, saying it did not want to do it anymore, and for Korea, even thinking of retaliatory tariffs was out of the question.
“Mr. President, is there something you wish to say...?”
When Kim Sang-cheol’s expression remained troubled, Lee Chan-ho asked.
“Prime Minister, in the end, we must handle national defense ourselves.”
“Yes... Please speak.”
“Korea is a nation that pursues peace, and we will make every effort to mediate. But as a mediator, and as an ally, I think it would be good to obtain from the United States the share we deserve.”
“Then...”
“Please look into how many long-cherished projects the Korean military currently has, and among them, which one is the most feasible.”
“Surely... you intend to ask the United States to lift restrictions?”
“They unilaterally tore up the FTA and even squeezed investment funds for America out of us. Surely we can make one small demand of our own.”
Kim Sang-cheol shook his head.
“Never mind. There is nothing to be done about what has already passed. Since we cannot impose retaliatory tariffs against the United States anyway, let us at least remove one shackle in the military sector. Ask the generals about the long-cherished projects of our military, and let us push forward with the most feasible one.”
Lee Chan-ho nodded.
“Understood. I will convene a cabinet meeting today and report the results to you.”
“Good.”
After Lee Chan-ho left, Kim Sang-cheol stared at the portraits of former presidents hanging in the Blue House.
“...”
What was it... What on earth had they seen... What kind of future had they glimpsed that made them cry out for nuclear armament and self-reliant national defense?
Looking back now, the Iraq War had been on the level of the Opium Wars. It was a war that showed that if America made up its mind to go to war, it could even create a pretext where none existed.
“...”
They must have seen something, hadn’t they?
That without national defense capabilities, trade, the economy—none of it meant anything?
*
“I look forward to working with you over the next two weeks. I am Director Choi Young-min, in charge of APEC trade affairs.”
One week before the APEC summit.
I had been dispatched from headquarters and ended up attending as a member of the APEC summit task force.
“Well, these are all familiar faces to me. Hm? Mr. Se-jun, you’re here too.”
“Yes, it’s been a while, Director.”
The task force was headed by Director Choi of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, who had stood at the forefront of the delegation to the United States. Perhaps because it had been so long since we last met, he seemed very glad to see me.
“Yes, Mr. Se-jun. I’ll be counting on you this time.”
“Yes. I’ll work hard.”
“No, Mr. Se-jun, you need to work less hard. I don’t know about anyone else, but I worry about you. You mustn’t fight like you did during the last negotiations with the United States, all right? This time, we are the hosts of the event.”
“Of course.”
“Everyone, introduce yourselves. This is Team Leader Lee Se-jun of the National Pension Fund Management Headquarters. Contrary to that sly face of his, his personality is quite something.”
“Haha.”
Thanks to his special attention, I was able to get closer to the task force members much faster.
“Then I’ll go over the basic schedule.”
“Yes.”
“This APEC schedule will involve wide-ranging discussions with the leaders of various countries on the economy, security, investment, and more. That is why our task force has gathered such a variety of people.”
“Yes.”
“In truth, when it comes to security, the discussions will not go beyond general principles. But there is still a great deal to negotiate in terms of the economy and investment. The papers being distributed now cover the expansion of trade with each country, so if anything requires review, or if you have better ideas, please speak up at any time.”
All the team members buried their heads in the documents.
There was nothing particularly strange about it. It was not very different from what the media had been speculating.
“Good. Questions up to this point?”
“Director. Why are there three meetings scheduled between the U.S. and Chinese leaders...? I heard President Donald was only stopping by for one night and two days, just to show his face.”
“The schedule has changed. I heard extremely confidential discussions are taking place, but it does not seem to be about the economy. Considering even I, from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, do not know the details.”
“Then could it be security?”
“Well... haha. Any other questions?”
When everyone fell silent, the director continued.
“Good. Let us leave the first meeting at that. Everyone should go home early today. Your schedules will be busy starting tomorrow, so get some sleep early tonight.”
“Yes.”
“Only those I call out should remain seated. I will see the rest of you tomorrow. Dismissed.”
The meeting ended just like that, but I ended up being one of the few people the director called out, and my feet were rooted in place.
It was strange.
Once the team members disappeared, the amicable atmosphere vanished without a trace, and the director’s expression turned serious.
If my memory was correct, there were no particular problems with this APEC summit, and the major points had already been agreed upon behind the scenes. Had some variable appeared?
“Now, from this point on, those who remain must keep what we discuss today absolutely confidential. This is classified information from above.”
“Yes, yes.”
“The reason three U.S.-China meetings have been scheduled is because there is an extremely important agenda. From what I understand, most of it has already been discussed behind the scenes, and there will probably be an announcement ending the war.”
“Yes, wh-what?”
The director continued speaking.
“The Russo-Ukrainian War will end. We will need to examine the changes this will bring to the international order and how we should respond. Rather than Ukraine, Russia... Team leaders, how do you currently view the outlook for the Russian economy...”
The director’s next words did not even register in my ears.
“Th-the Russo-Ukrainian War is ending?!”
If my memory was correct, this was something that happened near the end of the Donald administration. I remembered that nothing had happened in Gyeongju.
So why had one axis of the macroeconomy changed again...?