After its landslide victory in the by-elections, the ruling party began accelerating its push to break away from the “nuclear phase-out” policy in earnest.
The very next day, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power launched the Nuclear Power Plant Construction Promotion Committee and began work on selecting sites.
It went without saying, but even if people hated seeing their electricity bills go up, they hated the idea of a nuclear power plant being built in front of their homes even more.
Residents of the candidate sites all cried out in desperate opposition, and as a result, the Blue House’s approval rating, which had barely been holding in the thirty-percent range, was put in jeopardy.
The one saving grace was that President Kim Sangcheol had tremendous drive.
At the gathering celebrating the by-election landslide, he mentioned electricity rates and carbon neutrality no fewer than nine times, and the following day, the ministers of environment and science and ICT officially acknowledged the construction of new nuclear plants, sending Korea once again into an unknown future.
“They’re really going through with this?”
Department Head Oh looked at my report and asked back with a doubtful expression.
Thanks to the ruling party’s U-turn, nuclear power stocks were already all the rage on the KOSPI. KEPCO shares soared on expectations that electricity unit prices would fall, and stocks in related industries rose along with them.
“Of course. The government and ruling party are that serious about it. Do you think they’ll withdraw?”
“There hasn’t been an official statement from the Blue House yet. Looking at the opposition now, I feel like the Blue House might take a step back.”
“That won’t happen. What the ministers said is essentially the president’s true feelings. Given the Blue House’s momentum, there’s no way this issue gets withdrawn halfway.”
My buy report this time was extremely straightforward.
It said we should sweep up as many nuclear-themed stocks, currently taking the market by storm, as the law allowed.
“Even so, nuclear-themed stocks are too risky... Tsk.”
“What’s bothering you so much? It’s all been confirmed by the government.”
“You get burned by it once too, then. The policy direction changes at the drop of a hat depending on the administration, so how are we supposed to increase our stake in nuclear?”
Department Head Oh was still hesitating. Since he had experienced nuclear-related stocks hitting rock bottom under the past nuclear phase-out policy, it seemed difficult for him to readily make an investment decision.
“Sir. Please trust me. Once they break ground on this, they won’t be able to push it back anyway.”
“Hmm...”
“Seeing as they’ve already launched the committee, they’ll break ground within this administration at the latest. Once that happens, the next administration will never be able to reverse it.”
In truth, in my memory, there was no future where the Kim Sangcheol administration built additional nuclear plants.
Was it the next one...? Or the one after that...? If my memory served me right, they endured and endured, but ultimately failed to meet their carbon reduction targets and hurriedly began construction. Korea, having started late, took well over ten years just to reach the OECD average for the share of renewable energy.
I fully understood why Department Head Oh was suspicious of the current government even after an official decision had been made.
“This is a mess. A real mess. But isn’t it too late to buy now?”
Department Head Oh looked at me.
“Nuclear-themed stocks have already had their brief craze. Tusan Enerbil already recovered its previous highs after the nuclear restart, and now it’s up four times from there.”
“You have to exclude the overall market uptrend. The KOSPI itself has doubled since then, so if you subtract that, it hasn’t risen that much.”
“Even after subtracting that, it’s doubled. Nuclear plants aren’t apartments you can build packed together in rows, and at most there’ll be two or three of them. Is there really room to rise?”
“I’ve factored in not only domestic demand, but overseas exports as well.”
“Exports?”
“Yes. If Korea builds additional nuclear plants domestically, overseas exports will gain momentum too. The government will put its weight behind it as well. Considering the potential market, they’re still very cheap.”
If my memory was right, Germany eventually returned to nuclear power as well.
In fact, Germany itself had proven just how absurd renewable energy without nuclear power was.
The Dunkelflaute phenomenon. This word, derived from German, refers to a period when the sky is dark and the wind does not blow. In simple terms, it asks how energy is supposed to be produced when solar and wind power are rendered useless.
Until now, Germany had gotten through these lulls by importing electricity from neighboring countries. But then a very fundamental question arose. If the neighboring country generated that electricity with coal, then who emitted that carbon? Setting everything else aside, what happens if the neighboring country has no electricity either?
-Wir haben uns geirrt! (We will build additional nuclear power plants.)
In the end, Germany too failed to overcome the “green blackout” scholars had warned about and returned to a pro-nuclear stance, thereby putting an end to its nuclear phase-out.
Renewable energy is impossible without nuclear power.
The only energy source with no carbon emissions and no supply instability is nuclear power.
“What kind of nonsense is that? Germany’s going to build nuclear plants again?”
What a shame. In the future I knew, scholars had already proven it, but no matter how much I talked, people in this world wouldn’t believe me, would they?
“Do you think it’ll only be Germany? Going forward, there won’t be any major country that doesn’t touch nuclear power.”
“Wh-what?”
“Sir. There’s a future here. Korea may not have the original technology, but its construction capability is among the top five in the world. Do you really think it’ll stay only in the domestic market? Demand for nuclear power will only grow from here, and if you factor that in, the current price is still cheap. We have to buy.”
Fortunately, Korea’s nuclear power plant construction capabilities were recognized worldwide.
However, because we lacked the original technology, every time we won an overseas contract, we had to endure royalty strong-arming from a company called Westinghouse.
Then why did we not have original technology? How should we develop it...? If I started talking about that, I’d inevitably have to bring up Korea’s basic science again. In any case, Korea was a country unusually distant from Nobel Prizes for its size and stature.
Still, the government had recently expanded R&D significantly, and nuclear companies were saying they would increase development expenses as well, so maybe we could secure decent technological capabilities too?
“Sir!”
“Why are you shouting, you punk... No matter how you look at it, isn’t this too much money?”
“This is too little. Right now, our nuclear companies urgently need money. The money they earn from orders has to go straight into original technology, and securing fourth-generation nuclear reactor technology, SMRs, will require astronomical sums on top of that. Right now, even if our companies do paid-in capital increases, we should take all the shares.”
“Are you the president, you bastard? Why are you worrying that far ahead?”
“Sir!”
As expected, people are all about momentum.
After roughly an hour of long persuasion, I finally managed to draw out Department Head Oh’s seal of approval.
“Damn it, is this the Ministry of Science and ICT? Why are we paying the government’s R&D budget with our money?”
“This is strictly an investment. Later on, it’ll lead to enormous profits.”
After arguing for quite some time, he reluctantly stamped the documents and handed them to me.
“Fine. Buy them. But there’s one condition.”
“Yes, please say whatever it is.”
He spoke to me with a terrifying expression.
“The pension fund will no longer invest in renewable energy-related stocks.”
“What? But...”
“But nothing. The domestic equity allocation is already too heavily tilted toward renewable energy. There will be no further investment. Got it?”
Judging by his expression, Department Head Oh had made up his mind too. Well, recently our investments in energy-related stocks, including KEPCO, had amounted to tens of trillions of won...
After watching his mood for a while, I had no choice but to nod, shedding tears of blood.
*
“It’s been a long time, Team Leader!”
“Yes, it really has been. Have you been well?”
“Thanks to you, Team Leader. Defense stocks are soaring day after day, and thanks to the pension fund, our retained earnings are plentiful. I wish things could stay like this for the rest of my life. Haha.”
KD Group headquarters.
Chairman Nam Sanggi, whom I met for the first time in a long while, welcomed me warmly with a blooming smile.
The leading stocks on the KOSPI last year and the year before had not been semiconductors, but defense stocks. When others rose twofold, this sector rose tenfold.
After the Russia-Ukraine War, countries increased investment in weapons development, and Korea’s independently developed K-9 even achieved export triumphs. It was truly impossible not to call this KD Group’s golden age.
“I was just thinking I should invite you over, Team Leader. The drone development we began the year before last has reached its final stage.”
“Final stage?”
“Yes. We’ve succeeded in localizing most of the key components. It’s all thanks to the technology you handed over to us and the enormous R&D funding.”
His face was full of confidence.
“And last month, we signed an MOU with the Ministry of National Defense. Starting next year, all of our military drones produced for our armed forces will use domestic components.”
“Oh, that’s an incredible achievement.”
“Of course. However, although we’ve now caught up in technology, we still haven’t caught up in price. So we intend to continue lowering unit costs with the money we earn from supplying the Ministry of National Defense.”
“You’ve worked hard. You’ve done very well!”
I was sincerely delighted.
At present, Korea still depended on Chinese-made military drones. And not for auxiliary parts like wings or casings, but for core components such as cameras, sensors, and motors.
This was how difficult it was to reorganize a supply chain once it had collapsed. If my memory was correct, Korea’s dependence on Chinese components had originally continued into the future. So the fact that we had succeeded in establishing independent technology in nothing else but military supplies made me indescribably happy.
“As it happens, I’ve had the research team prepare a few drones. This is our first drone, with every component localized, which we’ll begin supplying to the Ministry of National Defense next year. The ‘Hornet.’ I’ll take you there right away.”
“Thank you. But I didn’t come here today because of drones.”
“Not because of drones? Then...?”
I paused for a moment before asking.
“Chairman Nam. How are things currently at KD Solution?”
Nam Sanggi’s face stiffened at once.
KD Solution was his sorest finger.
As Korea’s largest renewable energy company, and the company to which Nam Sanggi had devoted himself with full authority over development, Solution was still in the abyss.
He had tried. It wasn’t as if he hadn’t made an effort.
From the time he was vice chairman receiving succession training, he had recognized the importance of renewable energy, and had done everything in his power to research solar and wind power.
But he couldn’t win.
He could not possibly beat Chinese products created by grinding up massive subsidies and manpower, and as China gradually devoured global market share, KD Solution had no choice but to fall into its current state as a neither-here-nor-there renewable energy company. The reason Nam Sanggi, once the most promising of the three KD brothers, had his leadership questioned was also because of KD Solution’s failure.
Fortunately, he had managed to make up for it with K-9 exports.
“It pains me to say this... but honestly, there is no answer.”
“What do you mean, no answer?”
“KD Solution has already been in the red for years, and it will be impossible to turn a profit going forward. At least when my father was still here, we kept it on life support by injecting money earned from other affiliates, but now even that is difficult. Because of that, there are discussions within the company about withdrawing from the business.”
“That makes no sense. The importance of renewable energy will only grow from here on, so how can the largest domestic company give up on development?”
“I’m sorry. But I learned that a promising business and a promising company are different things... Since we cannot keep up with China’s low-price offensive and technological capabilities, I think it may actually be better to shut the business down even a day sooner.”
Nam Sanggi’s face turned bright red.
He had many wounds. The reputation he had lost due to this failure in renewable energy development was considerable, not only among the three brothers, but across the business world, where he had once been seen as one of the most promising figures.
On top of that, after his father’s death, the group’s cash-cow affiliates had fallen into his younger brothers’ hands, so now he had no way to endure the losses.