According to the Bible, the Egyptian Pharaoh once had a strange dream.
Seven plump cows were grazing by the Nile, and then seven cows that were nothing but skin and bones came along and devoured them.
A similar dream followed the next day.
Seven sturdy, well-ripened ears of grain were growing tall and strong by the Nile, only for seven withered ears to wrap themselves around them.
Joseph, a distant ancestor and relative of Jesus and a man with a knack for interpreting dreams, happened to be imprisoned in an Egyptian jail at the time. Summoned before Pharaoh, he interpreted it thus: “For the next seven years, Egypt will see an extraordinary abundance, and for the seven years after that, a terrible famine will strike.”
And just as he had foretold, Egypt saw seven years of good harvests followed by seven years of bad ones... the prelude to the Bible’s second theme.
-Team Leader Lee, are you serious? Renewable energy?
To me, the recent global super-boom felt like those seven years. In times of prosperity, you had to prepare seed money for the recession.
But predicting the future was never easy.
The risk meeting, which had been warm and amicable, went cold as if doused with water the moment renewable energy came out of my mouth.
-Isn’t that going too far? Anyone can see the answer right now is semiconductors!
-Are you perhaps not talking about renewable energy, but semiconductors supplied to renewable energy companies?
I had fully expected the team heads to push back.
The reality was that even the United States couldn’t match China’s prices in renewable energy, and the global supply chain had already solidified into a monopoly. With Korea’s industrial structure, breaking that supply chain would not be easy.
And even if, by a generous stretch, we broke the supply chain, what exactly could we do on this land?
In the past, deserts where not even a blade of grass could grow were synonymous with “death.” These days, however, they were synonymous with “life.”
One hundred twenty square kilometers of solar panels installed in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur desert, another one hundred twenty square kilometers of solar panels installed in the Ningxia desert... and through that, a renewable energy generation ratio of 60%.
We had tried it... We had done it too.
Ten years ago, with carbon reduction as our goal, we had cut into mountains and filled in tidal flats, struggling by any means possible to raise our renewable energy ratio.
But even with the exact same components, the moment they crossed into Korea, the cost-effectiveness collapsed.
Just when it seemed like some electricity was being generated, the monsoon rains would flood over and sweep across the solar panels in the mountains, while the windmills set up near the coast lost efficiency because the wind was inconsistent.
Thus, it had been officially confirmed that Korea was a land where not only farming, but energy resources as well, could not be cultivated.
-That’s ridiculous! Even the companies that were investing are pulling out, so how can we invest in renewable energy?
-If anything, we should pull out of renewable energy-related stocks and invest in semiconductors instead. Looking at all the conditions, that’s what fits Korea!
Every team head except me flatly opposed it in one voice.
“...We have to look at the long term. The more AI-related industries grow, the more energy-related industries are bound to grow as well. We also have to meet the 2030 carbon reduction target promised under the Paris Agreement. No matter how you look at it, this market is going to expand, but our renewable energy portfolio is far too weak.”
No sooner had I finished than the head of the Domestic Team snapped back.
“Then name the exact stocks. What companies are you going to invest in?”
“...When sowing seeds, how can you be picky about the soil? First, we have to scatter the seeds everywhere.”
“The seed money we blew like that amounts to hundreds of billions. Under government pressure, do you know how many domestic companies we invested in? Did a single one of them produce results?”
Sadly, no.
Even Korea’s leading conglomerates had invested in renewable energy only to suffer deficits in the trillions.
“Just because an industry is promising doesn’t mean the companies in it are promising. If anything, the more promising the industry, the stronger the rich-get-richer effect becomes.”
“...”
“To put it bluntly, do you think Nvidia is the only company in the world developing GPUs? There must be thousands, tens of thousands of firms, but only the one or two that survive make money.”
-Hold on a moment.
Perhaps feeling sorry for me as I was being collectively lynched, Department Head Oh temporarily halted the meeting.
“I understand the objections. But let’s hear this in a more balanced way. Are there any team heads who agree with Team Leader Lee’s opinion?”
It was quiet... So quiet it was almost chilly.
Taking advantage of the heavy silence, the head of the Domestic Team said to Department Head Oh,
“Department Head, no matter how promising semiconductors are as a business, would a country like one in South America invest in semiconductors?”
“Hmm...”
“Every country has its own rice bowl. Trying to grow the renewable energy industry in soil like Korea’s is no different from Brazil or Argentina giving up crops and investing in semiconductors. Even if we nurture it, it’s a hopeless market.”
“Still, isn’t it an undeniable fact that electricity demand will explode going forward? And it’s also true that our carbon reduction deadline is getting closer.”
“Yes, well, demand will increase. We’ll have to reduce carbon too. But that doesn’t mean the jobs will go to domestic companies.”
“Then?”
“From a national perspective, it isn’t a good thing, but in the end it will be filled with Chinese products. Anything beyond that is not for us to involve ourselves in.”
A textbook answer. Were we not about profit rather than national interest?
From an investor’s point of view, it was a hundred times more correct for us to invest in Chinese companies that seemed almost certain to dominate the market rather than domestic companies with uncertain prospects.
“That’s not true. If we were an ordinary private equity fund, perhaps. But we have to choose our investments while taking those external factors into account as well.”
“What?”
“The government will never rely one hundred percent on Chinese components. It’ll invest in R&D and do whatever it can to foster domestic companies. From that perspective, investing in domestic companies in advance and raising their technological capabilities is more than enough to expect returns.”
“Hey, Team Leader Lee, next year’s R&D budget hasn’t even been announced yet! There’s no guarantee the government will foster this field! So how can you guarantee that and invest?”
“The United States imposed an 800% tariff on Chinese solar panels. On Southeast Asia, the rerouting export channel, they imposed up to 3,500%. Europe has also imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar panels, so do you think we’ll just sit on our hands?”
“Those are stories about countries far away. Whatever the case, we don’t have tariffs!”
“That’s shortsighted thinking! We’ll come up with some kind of measure related to renewable energy too! I looked into the potential of defense stocks ahead of time and invested! If you invest shortsightedly, you can’t make investments like that!”
As far as I knew, even King Sejong the Great had pressed his ministers down with authority when promulgating Hunminjeongeum.
“Y-you bastard, why are you suddenly bringing up returns again...”
Well, what could I do? There were times when that was necessary.
“Enough, everyone.”
When the atmosphere reached its peak, Department Head Oh opened his mouth.
“Each of you has a point. Well... With this unprecedented boom lately, the risk team hasn’t had much to do, but for the first time in a while, this felt like a proper risk meeting.”
He promptly stood up.
“I’ll report this matter to the division director as well. Renewable energy is not something the pension fund can decide on its own. Let’s keep a close eye on it while monitoring the government’s response.”
*
After the heated debate ended and quitting time approached.
One phone call from Department Head Oh left me with no choice but to stay put.
Following his instruction to come up quietly, I glanced around and quietly opened the door to his office.
“Hey, you little bastard, how long are you going to milk those defense stocks!”
As expected, the moment I opened the door, his thunderous scolding fell.
“Department Head, that’s not it...”
“Not it, my ass! Why do you bring up returns every time you’re at a disadvantage? Did you think I defended you back then so you could do this?”
“You saw it too, sir... The Domestic Team couldn’t be persuaded.”
“Then shouldn’t you also consider whether your thinking is wrong? There wasn’t a single wrong thing about saying domestic renewable energy businesses have no prospects!”
I groaned and closed my mouth.
“You little bastard, I took your side during KEPCO too. I actually told Bak Bong-su that ridiculous nonsense about dismissing the president of a public corporation.”
“...I’m truly grateful for that. In return, KEPCO’s stock price also rose a lot—”
“Does KEPCO’s stock price going up because electricity rates were raised count as going up? If it hadn’t gone up, all your investments related to public corporations would have failed this time!”
I closed my mouth again.
Recently, the government had nailed down a differential pricing system and KEPCO had soared into the 70,000-won range, but in truth, that had been closer to lobbying than investing. Of course, I believed it was normalization.
Department Head Oh sighed.
“So this time, I’m asking you. Give it up.”
“D-Department Head!”
“Just as you said, the importance of renewable energy will grow. The carbon reduction deadline is approaching, and electricity demand will rise further because of AI, so whatever form it takes, renewable energy will increase.”
“Then why won’t we invest?”
“The government doesn’t seem to have any measures.”
“...Pardon?”
“Right after the risk meeting ended, I used every connection I know and asked the Ministry of Science and ICT and the Ministry of Environment. But they say there’s no clear plan yet.”
Department Head Oh handed me a document.
“I wondered if, just in case, they might build additional nuclear power plants, but apparently that isn’t in the plans either. Even if we nurture this industry, it’ll be pushed out by China’s low-price offensive anyway, so how can we recklessly invest that money?”
Holding the document, I was at a loss for words.
For questions about nuclear power plans, there were dozens of reasons why it couldn’t be done, but for renewable energy plans, there was not a single prepared answer.
“It’s unfortunate, but let’s give up. Honestly, we don’t have the money either. During the recession, there was nowhere to invest, so our reserves overflowed, but these days, there are countless places we can’t invest in because we don’t have the money.”
“...Then what about renewable energy? What about the competitiveness of domestic technology?”
“Somehow, it’ll work out. China might not abuse its position over components. We have to think as optimistically as possible. In any case, it isn’t a matter for us to interfere in.”
I answered.
“Department Head, then if I secure the funds, can you invest?”
“What?”
“I’ll sell the domestic defense stocks. I’ll reduce the stake back to its previous level, and invest that money in renewable energy.”
“Wh-what are you talking about? The Russo-Ukrainian War isn’t even over yet.”
“Defense stocks can’t keep rising forever like during World War II. Once the international situation settles, I think they’ll face a strong correction. They’re under the same corporate group anyway, so I’ll meet Chairman Nam Sang-gi and settle this matter properly.”
Department Head Oh stared at me for a long while, his face devoid of a smile.
“You... are you serious?”
“Yes. First, I’ll start buying nuclear power-related stocks, which seem the most promising. They should be starving for investment funds right now too.”
“I told you they’re not building any. I said there’s no plan to build them.”
I spoke in a tone full of certainty.
“They will build them. If you don’t trust me, I’ll meet a government official myself and get a firm answer that they’ll build them.”
If my memory was correct, we would go beyond restarting nuclear power plants and build additional ones. It was something decided not under the current administration, but the next one; only the timing had changed, not the fate.
There was no helping it.
The Korean Peninsula was not a land with many options.