Red dots were blinking on the world map. Taeho pointed to them.
“These are the five cities where the current concentration of the sewer virus is highest: New York, London, Tokyo, Delhi, and São Paulo.”
A data table appeared on the screen.
The table displayed each city’s current virus concentration and the remaining percentage before it reached the threshold.
The president asked,
“Threshold?”
“The concentration at which the virus activates and begins causing infection. New York is already at 98%. Based on the current rate of increase, the average daily increase is 2.3%. New York has an 85% chance of reaching the threshold within forty-eight hours.”
The president asked in surprise,
“Then does that mean an outbreak will occur in New York within two days?”
“Taking the margin of error into account, seventy-two hours.”
Taeho spoke precisely.
“By noon on the eighteenth, an unidentified respiratory infection will occur in New York.”
The president was silent for a while.
He wasn’t some fortune-teller, so how could he predict it that accurately?
The Chief of Staff, who had been listening, cut in with an expression of disbelief.
“……That’s far too specific. Is that kind of prediction really possible?”
“You probably won’t believe it if I’m the one saying it, so I’ll let the Commissioner explain.”
Taeho looked at Park Seon-yeong.
The Commissioner nodded and explained.
“The accuracy of wastewater epidemiological surveillance has already been verified. In 2020, the Netherlands predicted community infection an average of six days in advance through sewer monitoring. Israel detected a resurgence of polio three weeks ahead of time as well.”
“But weren’t those viruses already known?”
“The principle is the same. When the virus concentration exceeds the threshold, human infection begins. This is a biological law.”
The president stared at Taeho for a long time.
So there was a reason he had made a name for himself worldwide at such a young age.
Admiration came naturally. Even so, the president asked in a cautious voice,
“Then is the U.S. government preparing for this now?”
Taeho gave a bitter smile.
“The United States doesn’t know.”
“What did you say?”
The president frowned. The Chief of Staff also looked as if he could not believe it.
“This data is not information from a public disease prevention system.”
Taeho switched the screen. A complex data flowchart appeared.
“For the past six months, our Geumsan Research Institute has been collecting water quality data from 850 cities in forty-seven countries around the world. Not from official disease prevention systems, but from the databases of waterworks corporations and environmental management agencies. Some of it is public data, and some of it…… was secured through partner companies.”
Taeho skirted around mentioning Rema.
The Chief of Staff reacted sensitively.
“It wasn’t illegal access, was it?”
“It is data that can be collected within legal bounds. Water quality test results are often accessible under environmental information disclosure laws. However, we are the first to analyze that data for the purpose of monitoring a specific virus.”
Taeho enlarged the New York data.
“In the public database of the New York City Department of Water Management, the past two weeks are recorded only as an ‘increase in unidentified organic matter concentration.’ The person in charge probably thinks it is industrial wastewater or animal feces. But we know the genetic sequence of the specific virus obtained in Abu Dhabi. Certain fragments of that sequence have unique chemical characteristics that distinguish them from ordinary RNA. By reverse-calculating the spectroscopic analysis results of the water quality data, we can estimate the virus concentration.”
Commissioner Park Seon-yeong nodded as if she understood.
“So ordinary water quality tests wouldn’t identify it as a virus, but if you know the viral sequence, it’s possible to trace it backward.”
“Exactly. This is the result of our institute’s AI prediction model comprehensively analyzing that data.”
The president slowly exhaled.
“Whew. So you’re saying a certain terrorist group has already released the virus into New York’s sewers, and the United States doesn’t know?”
“Exactly.”
This was no ordinary serious problem.
“Why are they spreading it in the sewers? Wouldn’t infecting people directly be faster?”
At the Chief of Staff’s question, Taeho shook his head.
“The sewer system spreads throughout the entire city. Points connected to the water supply, storm drains, subway ventilation shafts, and so on. The virus gradually spreads through evaporated water droplets, aerosols, and carriers like rats or cockroaches. In this way, it doesn’t target specific individuals, so it becomes impossible to trace from the start.”
Commissioner Park Seon-yeong added with a grim expression,
“Once the sewer concentration reaches the threshold, dozens or hundreds of people will be infected simultaneously in multiple places. It becomes impossible even to find the first patient. Epidemiological investigation is blocked at the source.”
A heavy silence settled over the conference room.
The president opened his mouth.
“Shouldn’t we inform the U.S. government?”
“They won’t believe us even if we do.”
Taeho spoke firmly.
“We cannot disclose how we secured this data or what AI model we used to analyze it. It is both a core corporate technology and a national security asset. On top of that, who would believe a prediction that an infectious disease will break out seventy-two hours from now? It would only create diplomatic friction.”
“Then are you saying we should just sit back and watch?”
The president’s brow tightened.
When he thought about it calmly, Kang Taeho was right.
The United States had the most agile anti-terrorism system in the world. If the Korean government were to warn New York first about the threat of biological terrorism, it was such a sensitive situation that they might instead be suspected of being the force behind it. And what if Kang Taeho’s prediction was wrong?
If they clumsily interfered, they might not even be able to recover their losses.
Taeho changed the screen again. This time, a map of the Korean Peninsula appeared. Yellow dots were marked on Seoul, Busan, and Daegu.
“Our country is not safe either. The current sewer concentration is 23% in Seoul, 18% in Busan, and 15% in Daegu. The rate of increase is 3 to 5% per week. At this rate, Korea will also reach the threshold in four to six months.”
The president’s face hardened.
“The reason New York is erupting first is because they started there earlier. They are spreading the virus simultaneously in major cities around the world. New York is a test. After observing the results, they will adjust the concentrations in the remaining cities.”
Taeho looked straight at the president.
“If the outbreak begins in New York seventy-two hours from now, that will be our future. The time we have been given is four to six months. This is our last chance to prepare.”
“New York will become the evidence?”
“Yes. If my prediction proves correct seventy-two hours from now, the accuracy of our analysis model will be proven.”
Commissioner Park Seon-yeong added,
“If the New York outbreak becomes international news, the public will become anxious. The key will be whether the government can say at that time that we are already preparing. In that situation, the National Assembly won’t be able to block the budget either.”
The president slowly nodded.
If New York erupted, public opinion would boil over, and the National Assembly would have no choice but to pass the budget. At the same time, if Kang Taeho’s prediction model was verified, no one would be able to deny the warning that Korea, too, would be in danger four months later.
Taeho spoke firmly.
“Those seventy-two hours are the time to prove the reliability of our model, and the time in which decisive evidence will emerge to persuade the people and the National Assembly.”
The president looked at the Chief of Staff.
“Operate the situation room twenty-four hours a day. Monitor the situation in New York in real time. Track everything—the U.S. CDC announcements, local media, even social media.”
“Yes, Mr. President.”
“Commissioner Park, put the KDCA on emergency footing as well. Whatever happens in New York seventy-two hours from now, we must be able to respond immediately. And prepare an unofficial briefing for the chairs of the National Assembly Health and Welfare Committee and the Special Committee on Budget and Accounts. The moment the outbreak in New York occurs, we will move the National Assembly.”
“Understood.”
The president turned his gaze to Taeho.
“Director Kang, I hope your prediction is wrong. But if it is correct……”
He paused for a moment.
The arrival of a pandemic more powerful than COVID-19.
It was a nightmare he did not even want to imagine.
“We must move right now. Seventy-two hours. Begin the countdown.”
***
On the screen connected to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s situation room, the WHO’s real-time disease surveillance system, EIOS, was open. Hospital data from major cities around the world was flowing in.
Commissioner Park Seon-yeong checked the data in a tense state.
The Chief of Staff called.
“Commissioner, is there still no news?”
“No, not yet.”
The Commissioner stared at the screen.
“But if Director Kang Taeho’s prediction is correct, it should happen sometime this evening, shouldn’t it? The president is continuing to keep an eye on it.”
“I know. To be honest, I’m anxious too.”
The Commissioner sighed.
After hanging up, she looked at the screen again.
Her mind was tangled in complicated feelings—hoping Director Kang Taeho’s prediction would be correct, yet at the same time hoping that such a terrible situation would not occur.
***
Brooklyn, New York.
John Peterson, a man in his forties, suddenly felt chills after dinner. His wife asked John, who had wrapped himself in a blanket and was trembling,
“Honey, are you all right?”
“I don’t know. I’m suddenly cold.”
John shivered violently.
When they checked his temperature, it was 38.9 degrees.
“I guess it’s the flu. I should take Tylenol and sleep.”
But by midnight, his fever had risen to 39.8 degrees. Then the coughing began. It was not a dry cough, but a cough that felt as though something were lodged inside.
At two in the morning, John began to have trouble breathing. Panting, he woke his wife sleeping beside him.
“Haaah, honey…… I think I need to go to the hospital. Haaah.”
***
One hour later, the emergency room of Brooklyn Medical Center in New York.
“Patient 42, male, forty-three years old. High fever of 39.8 degrees, difficulty breathing, oxygen saturation 88%!”
A nurse shouted.
The doctor on duty, James Lee, came running.
“Flu test?”
“Negative.”
“COVID?”
“Negative.”
“That’s strange.”
James examined the patient. When he placed the stethoscope against the patient’s lungs, he heard an odd crackling sound. And the blood vessels visible in the whites of the patient’s eyes.
‘A bleeding tendency?’
James grimaced and shouted,
“Move him to an isolation room now. And prepare a report to the CDC!”
At that time, at the Geumsan Clinic Research Institute.
Rema’s emergency alert rang out.
—Emergency Alert: Brooklyn Medical Center.
—One patient with an unidentified respiratory infection has arrived.
—Symptoms: high fever of 39.8 degrees, difficulty breathing, slight bleeding tendency.
—Flu/COVID negative.
Taeho nodded.
It was beginning now.
“Rema, strengthen monitoring for additional patients.”
—Yes. Understood.
***
The president was carrying out his schedule. A work report from the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, a meeting with the Minister of National Defense, and in the afternoon, a luncheon with the floor leaders of the National Assembly negotiating groups were scheduled.
Seventy-two hours.
The time Kang Taeho had predicted was passing. The president moved as usual, but anxiety had settled in one corner of his heart.
‘Will it really be right?’
At two in the afternoon, the luncheon with the National Assembly members was in full swing.
The Chief of Staff quietly approached the president and whispered in his ear.
“There is an urgent report.”
The president turned his head. The Chief of Staff’s expression was unusual.
“Now?”
“Yes. You must check it immediately.”
The president rose from his seat.
“I apologize. An urgent matter has come up. Please excuse me for a moment.”
He moved to an adjacent small conference room. The Chief of Staff handed him a tablet.
“A patient with an unidentified respiratory infection has appeared in New York.”
The president’s hand trembled. Breaking news from the U.S. CDC was displayed on the tablet screen.
‘It’s here!’
“The exact time?”
“3:15 a.m. on the eighteenth, New York local time. 5:15 p.m. our time. It occurred five hours later than the noon Director Kang predicted.”
“……He was right.”
The president took a deep breath. It was within the margin of error. No, at this level, it had to be considered an exact hit.
“Commissioner Park?”
“She has already confirmed it. The KDCA situation room is operating, and they are sharing information with the U.S. CDC in real time.”
“How many patients are there?”
The Chief of Staff swiped the screen.
“The initial report was one. But twenty minutes ago, two additional patients with similar symptoms reportedly arrived at the same hospital’s emergency room. There are currently three.”
“Three……”
The Chief of Staff continued carefully.
“Director Kang sent an additional prediction ten minutes ago. He says the number of patients will increase to more than ten within the next six hours.”
The president looked out the window. Beyond the glass, downtown Seoul was visible. The evening sun was sinking toward the west.
As if he had made up his mind, he turned back to the Chief of Staff.
“Have a secretary wrap up the luncheon. I’m going to the situation room.”
“Yes, Mr. President.”
“And let’s meet Director Kang again. Right now.”